The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in a widely expected decision, despite two dovish dissents from Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran who favored a 25-basis-point cut, reinforcing the view that the Fed has entered an extended pause rather than the start of a renewed easing cycle. Policymakers upgraded their assessment of economic growth, citing solid expansion, removed language suggesting rising downside risks to employment, and described the labor market as showing signs of stabilization, while reiterating that inflation remains somewhat elevated. The statement and accompanying commentary underscored that risks to the Fed’s dual mandate are now more balanced and that future policy moves will be driven strictly by incoming data, not precautionary cuts. Markets largely viewed the outcome as uneventful, with rate-cut expectations already reduced, while Waller’s dissent drew attention as potentially boosting his standing in speculation over the next Fed chair.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that the United States maintains a strong-dollar policy, emphasizing that it is achieved by setting sound economic fundamentals rather than through market intervention, and stated the U.S. is “absolutely not” selling dollars against the yen. His comments helped spark a broad rebound in the dollar after it had fallen sharply following President Trump’s remarks that he was comfortable with the currency’s recent decline. Bessent’s message was seen as an effort to calm markets by signaling policy stability and pushing back against concerns that the administration might tolerate or pursue a rapid depreciation of the dollar.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexico’s economy secretary said discussions between the two countries have made substantial progress and agreed to continue talks focused on non-tariff barriers, signaling forward movement on regulatory, customs, and market-access issues that affect bilateral trade. The comments suggest both sides are working to resolve frictions beyond tariffs and keep negotiations moving under the broader U.S.–Mexico trade relationship.
U.S. ethanol stocks fell to 25.4 million barrels, down 339 thousand barrels or 1.3% on the week, compared with market expectations near 25.8 to 25.9 million barrels, leaving the draw broadly in line with expectations. Production eased slightly to 1.114 million barrels per day, down 5 thousand barrels per day week over week, but remained well above the Bloomberg survey average near 1.079 million barrels per day, signaling plants are still running at a strong pace despite winter logistics challenges. The weekly stock draw was driven mainly by the Gulf Coast, while the Midwest saw a modest build, leaving the overall report neutral to mildly constructive, with inventories trending lower but no sign of acute tightening given steady production.
Canada and South Korea have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at attracting South Korean automobile manufacturing and related investment to Canada, according to the Globe and Mail. The agreement seeks to encourage South Korean automakers and suppliers to expand production and supply chains in Canada, supporting jobs, clean-vehicle manufacturing, and long-term industrial investment while strengthening economic ties between the two countries.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Democrats should be working toward a deal with the White House on government funding and homeland security policy as the risk of a partial government shutdown grows near the end of the week. Republicans are pressing Democrats to negotiate potential executive actions the White House could take to address GOP concerns over immigration enforcement, while Democrats want Department of Homeland Security funding split from the broader spending package and policy reforms included in law. The standoff centers on a six-bill funding package, with Senate Republicans moving forward procedurally as funding deadlines approach, and Democrats arguing DHS should be handled separately to allow the rest of the government to be funded, though a handful of GOP senators have signaled openness to dropping DHS from the package.
Corn
B 1000 n 420/390 ps 5 3/4
B 500 j 450 c 5 1/2
S 300 k 440 c 12 1/2
S 500 nu +10 cso c 3 5/8
B 1400 u 480 c 13 ½ vs 445
B 2000 h 420 p 1 3/4
B 200 z 380 p 2 7/8
B 2000 h 435/445 cs 2 7/8 db vs 432
B 500 u 450 c 21 ½ vs 442 1/2
B 475 n 475/566 ps 14 to 14 3/8
S 200 n 500 c 5
S 2000 h 435 c 5
S 100 m 470 c 7
B 750 z 460 c vs s z 410 p 20 db
S 600 kn -5 cso c 1 3/4
S 500 k 430 p 9
B 400 kn -5 cso c 1 3/4
S 500 n 425 p 10
On a block
S 200 k27 425 p 8 ¾ vs 475 on a 100 delta
S 550 h27 425 p 9 ¾ vs 469 on a 100 delta
B 800 k 420 p 4 7/8 vs 439 3/4
Beans
B 2000 n 1200 c 11 to 11 1/8
B 500 h 1060 p 8
S 500 k 1120 c 14 5/8
S 4000 h 1020 p 2 ¼ to 2
B 1000 k 1120 c 16 5/8
B 1000 k 1050 p 10 3/8 to 11 3/8
B 1000 h 1050 p 4 to 4 3/8
S 100 k 1070p/1110c strangles 36
B 1000 w1 1060 p 2 1/4
B 500 w2 1050 p 2 5/8
B 1000 h 1060 p 6 5/8
S 200 h 1070 c 18 3/8
B 1000 h 1080 straddles 28
S 800 k 1150 c 9 ¾ vs 1095
B 300 u 1100 c vs s k 1100 c 19 ¼ db
S 1000 n 1000 p 5 1/8
S 500 n 1200 c 10 3/8
B 1000 j 1100 c 17 7/8 to 18 3/4
B 1250 w5 1074 p vs s 2500 w5 1060 p 2 to 2 1/8 db
B 2500 sd j 1070 c 33
On a block
S 400 k 1090 straddles 54 3/4
Soymeal
B 300 h 320 c .95
B 400 h 305 c 2.70 to 2.85
S 300 h 300 c 4.45 to 4.35
S 200 h 300 c vs b 400 h 315 c 1.60 cr
B 100 j 305/340 cs 5.85
B 1000 h 300 c 4.35 to 4.45
S 100 k 295p/305c strangles 14.90
S 400 h 300 straddle 10.55 to 10.50
B 500 w5 295/305 cs 3.80
S 100 v 300p/330c strangles 22.20
Bean oil
S 7900 h 60/65 cs .080 vs 54.10
B 1400 h 5350/50 ps .780 vs 5448
B 1500 k 53/49 ps 1.325 vs 54.74
B 250 h 51p/56c strangle 1.015
S 750 k 50 p .915 to .910 vs 5468
S 1000 h 56/60 cs .595 vs 5425
B 500 h 5350 straddles 2.800
B 1000 n 58 c 2.750 vs 5520
B 100 n 62 c 1.700 vs 5520
B 200 h 5250/50 cs 2.680
B 500 w2 57/60 cs .330
B 250 h 56/58 cs .520
B 500 n 60/70 cs 1.550
B 100 k 56/60 cs 1.185
B 500 h 51 p .240 to .270
S 2500 k 52/47 ps 1.130 vs 5511
On a block
S 7900 h 60/65 cs .060
S 9750 k 60/65 cs .700
B 400 k 55c vs s 800 k 60 c .180
Wheat
S 800 z 600 c 42
S 1000 h 600 c 7/8
B 2500 h 550 c 6 ¼ to 7 1/4
B 300 k 530 p 15 1/2
B 1000 h 600 c 1 ¼ vs 540 1/2
B 100 n 520/510 ps 3 1/2
B 1000 h 570 c 3 5/8
S 300 h 530 p 8
B 1000 h 600 c 1 1/8
B 100 h 540/515 ps vs s 550 c ½ db
B 1000 h 540 c vs s h 530/520 ps 6 1/8 db vs 536
Kc wheat
B 1000 h 530/510 ps 4 5/8 vs 545
B 500 h 530/500 ps vs s 580c 1 1/8 db vs 547
B 500 h 570 c vs s h 520 p 2 db vs 545
B 100 k 600 c 11 3/4
S 500 h 540/520 ps 7 1/4
B 400 w1 525 p 1 ½ to 1 7/8
B 150 h 530 p 6
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 430.00 | 3.50 | 430 | 13.9 | 0.80 | 6.50 | 3.77 | 6.55 | 24.17 | 23 |
| C J6 | 438.00 | 3.25 | 440 | 13.7 | 0.60 | 6.00 | 3.78 | 6.24 | 22.60 | 58 |
| C K6 | 438.00 | 3.25 | 440 | 15.3 | 0.50 | 6.00 | 4.22 | 6.24 | 22.60 | 86 |
| C M6 | 444.00 | 3.25 | 445 | 15.6 | 0.40 | 5.25 | 4.36 | 5.96 | 21.30 | 114 |
| C N6 | 444.00 | 3.25 | 445 | 17.0 | 0.40 | 5.25 | 4.75 | 5.96 | 21.30 | 149 |
| C U6 | 443.50 | 3.25 | 445 | 19.1 | 0.40 | 4.75 | 5.34 | 4.32 | 15.47 | 205 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1075.00 | 7.75 | 1080 | 12.9 | 1.10 | 17.75 | 8.74 | 9.08 | 13.40 | 23 |
| S J6 | 1087.75 | 8.25 | 1090 | 12.4 | 0.80 | 17.25 | 8.50 | 8.68 | 12.66 | 58 |
| S K6 | 1087.75 | 8.25 | 1090 | 13.0 | 0.60 | 17.25 | 8.91 | 8.68 | 12.66 | 86 |
| S M6 | 1101.00 | 8.50 | 1100 | 13.2 | 0.60 | 17.25 | 9.15 | 8.19 | 11.80 | 114 |
| S N6 | 1101.00 | 8.50 | 1100 | 13.8 | 0.40 | 17.25 | 9.57 | 8.19 | 11.80 | 149 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 536.00 | 12.75 | 535 | 22.1 | 1.70 | 18.25 | 7.46 | 6.52 | 19.31 | 23 |
| W J6 | 544.50 | 11.75 | 545 | 22.5 | 1.00 | 17.00 | 7.72 | 5.98 | 17.43 | 58 |
| W K6 | 544.50 | 11.75 | 545 | 22.9 | 0.90 | 17.00 | 7.85 | 5.98 | 17.43 | 86 |
| W M6 | 555.00 | 11.00 | 555 | 23.3 | 0.60 | 15.50 | 8.15 | 5.67 | 16.22 | 114 |
| W N6 | 555.00 | 11.00 | 555 | 24.5 | 0.50 | 15.50 | 8.57 | 5.67 | 16.22 | 149 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 542.25 | 9.50 | 540 | 22.7 | 1.60 | 17.25 | 7.75 | 7.24 | 21.21 | 23 |
| KWJ6 | 552.75 | 10.00 | 555 | 23.1 | 0.90 | 17.00 | 8.04 | 6.95 | 19.96 | 58 |
| KWK6 | 552.75 | 10.00 | 555 | 23.5 | 0.90 | 17.00 | 8.18 | 6.95 | 19.96 | 86 |
| KWN6 | 565.25 | 10.25 | 565 | 24.5 | 0.60 | 16.00 | 8.72 | 6.88 | 19.31 | 149 |
| KWU6 | 580.00 | 10.25 | 580 | 24.8 | 0.30 | 13.50 | 9.06 | 6.76 | 18.51 | 205 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 54.31 | -0.10 | 54.5 | 25.1 | -1.10 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.74 | 21.53 | 23 |
| BOJ6 | 54.85 | -0.10 | 55 | 27.4 | -0.70 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.72 | 20.95 | 58 |
| BOK6 | 54.85 | -0.10 | 55 | 27.8 | -0.70 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 0.72 | 20.95 | 86 |
| BON6 | 55.17 | -0.11 | 55 | 27.1 | -0.40 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 0.70 | 20.06 | 149 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 297.80 | 3.80 | 300 | 17.2 | 0.80 | 6.30 | 3.23 | 3.70 | 19.71 | 23 |
| SMJ6 | 301.50 | 3.50 | 300 | 17.0 | 0.70 | 5.50 | 3.23 | 3.44 | 18.12 | 58 |
| SMK6 | 301.50 | 3.50 | 300 | 16.9 | 0.50 | 5.50 | 3.21 | 3.44 | 18.12 | 86 |
| SMN6 | 306.50 | 3.40 | 305 | 17.4 | 0.50 | 5.30 | 3.36 | 3.23 | 16.71 | 149 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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