Mondelez and ADM report earnings tomorrow.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will delay the release of the January jobs report due to the federal government shutdown, temporarily removing a key data point for markets and policymakers. The delay adds uncertainty around near-term assessments of labor-market momentum, wage trends, and inflation pressures, and may complicate Federal Reserve expectations in the short run. Until the report is released, markets are likely to lean more heavily on secondary indicators and surveys, increasing the risk of volatility driven by incomplete or noisier signals about economic conditions.
President Donald Trump confirmed that he spoke directly with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reinforcing signs of easing U.S.–India trade tensions after news that Washington plans to lower India’s reciprocal tariff rate to 18% from 25%. The call highlights a more constructive bilateral tone at a time when India is facing fiscal pressure and rising bond yields, and suggests the U.S. is prioritizing strategic and economic alignment over escalation. While the tariff cut is incremental, the combination of direct leader-level engagement and reduced trade barriers improves the outlook for negotiations, slightly lowers cost pressures on affected goods, and supports market sentiment around U.S.–India relations.
Weekly U.S. export inspections for the week ending January 29 showed firm grain movement, with soybeans at 1.311 MMT and corn at 1.136 MMT, underscoring resilient demand despite peak South American competition. Soybean shipments were heavily China-centric, with 740k tons—more than half of the weekly total—bound for China, followed by Mexico and Egypt, highlighting China’s continued role as the swing buyer even amid Brazil’s harvest. Corn inspections were led by Japan (444k tons), with Mexico and Colombia also key destinations, reinforcing steady feedgrain demand across Asia and the Western Hemisphere. Wheat inspections lagged at 327k tons, led by Mexico, Malaysia, and Taiwan, reflecting ongoing competitiveness challenges versus Black Sea and other exporters. Overall, the destination mix supports a constructive outlook for U.S. corn and soybean export flow, while wheat remains the relative weak spot in the complex.
U.S. cattle supplies are expected to remain historically tight through at least 2026–27, according to executives at Tyson Foods, as ranchers show limited signs of rebuilding herds that have fallen to the smallest level since 1951. The prolonged shortage is pushing cattle costs sharply higher—up about $850 million year over year in the most recent quarter—squeezing beef packer margins and forcing capacity reductions, including plant closures and production cuts. While there are early indications of herd rebuilding in some regions, Tyson cautioned that it will likely take roughly two years before that translates into meaningfully higher cattle availability for processors, reinforcing expectations that beef remains the most challenged protein segment in the near to medium term.
The January U.S. ISM Manufacturing report showed a sharp and broad-based upside surprise, with the headline PMI jumping to 52.6 versus expectations near 48.5, signaling a return to expansion for the first time in months. New orders surged to 57.1, production rose to 55.9—the highest since February 2022—and employment improved meaningfully, though it remains slightly in contraction. At the same time, the prices-paid index increased to 59, indicating renewed inflation pressure alongside stronger activity. Overall, the report points to a genuine re-acceleration in U.S. manufacturing rather than a temporary rebound, complicating the case for near-term Fed rate cuts and reinforcing a firmer macro demand backdrop.
Corn
S 2500 h 430 p 8 ¾ to 8 5/8 vs 424 1/2
B 1000 n 400p 4 1/8 to 4 1/4
B 1000 h 440 c 1 1/8 to 1 3/8
S 125 j 425p/445c strangles 10 3/8
S 125 j 425p/440c strangles 12
B 400 j 425 p 5 3/8 to 5 5/8
S 650 k 440 c 9 1/8
B 300 z 485 c vs s 600 z 550 c 3 7/8
B 1500 n 450 c 14 ¼ to 14 1/2
S 1500 sd n 460 c 14 to 13 7/8
B 200 z 460 p 31 5/8
B 100 hn -15 cso c vs s hn -30 cso p 1 ½ db
B 1000 k 400 p 2 1/8 vs 434
B 500 h 410 p ¾ to 7/8 vs 425 3/4
S 1000 h 425 p 5
S 1000 h 420 p 3
B 1000 h 430 p 8 ¾ vs 424 1/2
B 200 k 430 straddles 24 7/8
B 125 j 435/435 ps vs s 445 c 3/8 db
B 1000 k 440 c vs s 2000 k 480 p 5 3/8 db vs 432 1/2
S 100 n 400 p 4
B 1000 h 430 p 7 ¾
S 600 w1 435 c 1/2
B 1000 h 430 c 4
Beans
B 100 k 1260 c 1 3/8
S 600 k 1120 c 11 vs 1073
S 175 q 1080 straddles 86 5/8 to 86 3/8
B 500 q 1100 p 54 1/2
S 2000 h 1060 p 12 1/8 vs 1060
S 1000 h 1100 c 1 3/4
B 1000 h 1080 c 5 to 5 1/8
S 700 sd j 1070 p 34 to 33 7/8
S 1000 h 1060 p 12 5/8 to 11 3/4
B 450 h 1070 c 8 7/8 vs 1060 1/4
S 300 k 1080 straddles 53 5/8 to 53 1/2
B 200 sd u 1080 c vs s 400 j 1090 c 16 ¼ db
B 300 n 1120 c vs s j 1080 c 6 ¾ db
S 200 j 1080 c 17 1/8 to 16 5/8
B 500 h 1040 p vs s sd u 1050 p paying even
Soymeal
S 2000 h 290 p 2.80 vs 293.0
B 200 n 330 c 4.90
S 100 h 295 straddles 8.80
S 500 h 300 c 2.15 vs 293.0
S 250 h 290 p 3.20 to 3.10
Bean oil
B 1200 z 55/65 cs vs s 45 p 1.200 to 1.240 db
B 600 k 54/58 cs 1.230
B 100 k 50 p 1.100
B 500 w2 60 c .025 to .035
S 1000 h 55 c vs b 1000 h 48 and 50 p .650 to .610 cr vs 5290
B 1000 h 49 p .140 to .145
S 1000 h 52 p .705 to .690
S 1000 h 55 c .510 to .435
S 750 h 5450/57 cs .485 vs 5288
B 1500 n 63 c 1.100 to 1.150
B 100 n 56 c vs s 200 n 65 c 1.000
B 500 k 60/65 cs .550 to .560
B 500 h 5550/59 cs vs s w2 55 c .010 db
B 1000 k 52 p vs s k 57/62 cs .990 db vs 5355
B 200 k 49 p .820 to .850
S 200 h 5350/5250 ps .560
B 100 n 56 c vs s 200 n 65 c 1.00 db
B 1000 h 57/60 cs .145 to 1.55 vs 53.00
B 150 u 55/70 cs 2.700
B 150 k 60 c .900
B 100 h 52 p vs s 200 h 50 p .290 db
B 250 w2 52 p .500
B 300 w2 55 c .400
B 100 k 50 p 1.050
On a block
B 250 n 56 c vs s 500 n 65 1.000
B 500 n 60 c vs s 1000 n 65 c .780 vs 5377
B 500 k 55/60 cs 1.225 to 1.230 vs 5340
Wheat
S 200 h 530 p 3 5/8
B 400 h 545/560 cs 2 3/4
On a block
S 350 h 540 p 23 7/8 vs 538 1/2
Kc wheat
B 400 h 530 c vs s 800 h 545 c 1 ¼ cr
B 500 h 535/525 ps 4 ½ to 4 5/8
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C H6 | 425.75 | -2.50 | 425 | 14.5 | 0.10 | 4.25 | 3.89 | 6.22 | 23.20 | 18 |
| C J6 | 433.50 | -2.25 | 435 | 14.0 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 3.82 | 5.96 | 21.82 | 53 |
| C K6 | 433.50 | -2.25 | 435 | 15.6 | 0.00 | 4.50 | 4.26 | 5.96 | 21.82 | 81 |
| C M6 | 439.75 | -2.25 | 440 | 16.0 | 0.10 | 4.50 | 4.43 | 5.73 | 20.69 | 109 |
| C N6 | 439.75 | -2.25 | 440 | 17.4 | 0.10 | 4.50 | 4.82 | 5.73 | 20.69 | 144 |
| C U6 | 439.75 | -1.50 | 440 | 19.6 | 0.00 | 3.75 | 5.43 | 4.15 | 14.97 | 200 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOH6 | 53.20 | -0.31 | 53 | 25.9 | 0.70 | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 20.54 | 18 |
| BOJ6 | 53.74 | -0.32 | 53.5 | 27.0 | 0.30 | 0.85 | 0.91 | 0.68 | 20.05 | 53 |
| BOK6 | 53.74 | -0.32 | 53.5 | 27.5 | 0.30 | 0.85 | 0.93 | 0.68 | 20.05 | 81 |
| BON6 | 54.05 | -0.34 | 54 | 26.7 | 0.30 | 0.68 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 19.26 | 144 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWH6 | 535.25 | -9.50 | 535 | 23.9 | -0.80 | 14.75 | 8.06 | 7.37 | 21.84 | 18 |
| KWJ6 | 546.25 | -8.75 | 545 | 23.6 | -1.00 | 13.75 | 8.12 | 7.15 | 20.79 | 53 |
| KWK6 | 546.25 | -8.75 | 545 | 23.7 | -0.80 | 13.75 | 8.16 | 7.15 | 20.79 | 81 |
| KWN6 | 559.50 | -8.00 | 560 | 24.4 | -0.70 | 13.50 | 8.60 | 7.12 | 20.19 | 144 |
| KWU6 | 574.25 | -7.50 | 575 | 25.0 | -0.40 | 12.50 | 9.04 | 7.01 | 19.39 | 200 |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W H6 | 527.75 | -10.25 | 530 | 22.9 | -0.80 | 14.25 | 7.61 | 6.99 | 21.02 | 18 |
| W J6 | 536.50 | -9.50 | 535 | 22.6 | -0.80 | 13.50 | 7.64 | 6.53 | 19.32 | 53 |
| W K6 | 536.50 | -9.50 | 535 | 22.8 | -0.80 | 13.50 | 7.71 | 6.53 | 19.32 | 81 |
| W M6 | 547.50 | -8.25 | 550 | 23.1 | -0.70 | 11.75 | 7.97 | 6.21 | 18.02 | 109 |
| W N6 | 547.50 | -8.25 | 550 | 24.2 | -0.70 | 11.75 | 8.35 | 6.21 | 18.02 | 144 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S H6 | 1060.25 | -4.00 | 1060 | 13.0 | -0.10 | 12.25 | 8.68 | 7.60 | 11.38 | 18 |
| S J6 | 1072.50 | -4.50 | 1070 | 12.6 | 0.00 | 11.25 | 8.51 | 7.37 | 10.91 | 53 |
| S K6 | 1072.50 | -4.50 | 1070 | 13.2 | 0.00 | 11.25 | 8.92 | 7.37 | 10.91 | 81 |
| S M6 | 1085.75 | -4.75 | 1090 | 13.3 | 0.00 | 10.75 | 9.10 | 7.16 | 10.47 | 109 |
| S N6 | 1085.75 | -4.75 | 1090 | 13.8 | 0.00 | 10.75 | 9.44 | 7.16 | 10.47 | 144 |
| Meal | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| SMH6 | 294.50 | 0.90 | 295 | 16.5 | 0.00 | 2.90 | 3.06 | 3.46 | 18.67 | 18 |
| SMJ6 | 298.20 | 0.70 | 300 | 16.5 | 0.10 | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.14 | 16.71 | 53 |
| SMK6 | 298.20 | 0.70 | 300 | 16.6 | 0.00 | 2.60 | 3.12 | 3.14 | 16.71 | 81 |
| SMN6 | 303.10 | 0.50 | 305 | 16.9 | -0.10 | 2.10 | 3.23 | 2.98 | 15.62 | 144 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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