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April Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

April '23 PHOSPHATES
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
Major global phosphate export location price graphs
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
I'll keep it simple:  bearish
There are several reasons why but ultimately it comes down to poor upcoming demand.  Some major global buyers appear to be ahead of schedule and we are getting increasingly convinced that they will not step forward to buy when the market expects them to.  Also seeing a lot of signs that North American spring demand is going to fail to meet expectations once again.  That is going to cause a lot of inventory to carryover to the summertime and act as an anchor on the marketplace.  I'm not willing to give up on spring demand but there are a lot more signs pointing to another "fails to meet expectation"...don't ask how many times that was written on my grade cards but it should be a good indication of why I ended up in the fertilizer industry!!!
There are still some things that nag me which could have values starting to level out or push slightly higher...but those are more than offset by the number of things that can continue to push values lower.
Should you buy your spring '23 phosphate needs?
Time is running out if you haven't.  Probably time to have that conversation!
Here in North America, we have already seen the effects of demand in the few areas it has popped up (southern plains).  Because the market has been bearish, no one in the supply chain has wanted to take the risk.  That means putting less fertilizer in place.  When the demand finally steps up, there is not enough supply to meet demand so value push higher.  This isn't going to be a long term situation.  Merely an in season thing but given how tight the application window is going to be for some regions, I would rather have my phosphate in place and paid for so I can hit the fields the second I can get going...or run the risk of waiting for product to show up.
I'm more conservative.  I would rather have the product.
general global dap/map information
image 59247
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Global values continue bearish
I realize this isn't the most in depth discussion in the world!!!
Still, sometimes the trend is our friend and in this case, that is what is happening.  Global phosphate values have been in a near constant price slide since March/April 2022 and today show few signs that it is about to turnaround.  One day it will, but today doesn't look like the day.  Tomorrow isn't looking likely either!
The unfortunate part for market bulls/fortunate part for market bears is that forward demand is looking even more sketchy.  India/Brazil look ahead of the game on imports.  North American/European demand is likely to be reluctant going into the summer.  Farmers around the world smell blood in the water and are likely to drag their feet on purchases even harder than normal.
 
2023 Chinese DAP/MAP exports are starting in-line with pre-export ban levels
As the world's largest DAP/MAP exporter, it makes sense to watch China with an eagle eye!!
2022 saw their exports down significantly following the Chinese government imposing restrictions due to high global values and tight global supplies.  However, as 2022 continued, these restrictions started to ease which allowed more product to flow.
The early indications for 2023 is that exports will "normalize".  That isn't a guarantee and we will, of course, continue to track but today, more product is finding its way into the world.  Unchanged demand + additional supply = lower price ideas.
 
Tampa NH3 April price falls $155 and lowers phosphate production costs
I've said this before many times and I will say it again many times:
We do not operate on a production cost plus model.
That said, phosphate production costs dropping with the April NH3 value means the price floor just got lower.
It goes without saying that phosphate values have been dropping fairly regularly and some market participants, ourselves included, have been trying to theorize what and when that trend will reverse.
My first theory for why values might level out/push slightly higher was going to be big spring demand that wiped out inventories.  Remove all inventories from the system, build big summer fill demand, stabilize the market.  Today, that doesn't look like a likely scenario with poor weather conditions.
Now, my eyes start to fixate on manufacturers having to balance the S&D.  With demand refusing to step in, supply has to do something.  However, at today's values, manufacturers are still making money so why stop producing unless you either run out of storage space or the value drops to where you are not making/losing money.
If their production cost has just dropped again, it moves the price at which manufacturers have to stop their production.  Essentially, it creates and even bigger downside price potential than upside which causes position takers to remain out of the market.
Without demand, it will be hard to change this trend.
North American demand being questioned
Spring 2022 was one of the worst weather springs that I can remember.  Especially for preplant.  Farmers struggled to get into the fields to get work done.  Several fertilizers saw demand dissipate.  In the end, the truth was seen as corn acres, previously expected to hit 93 - 95M acres, dropped to 88.6M.  Phosphate demand took a hard shot.
Spring 2023 doesn't appear to be much better.  March was a tough month for a lot of territory and that is a big month for phosphate application.  The Northern Plains, while I'm not ready to write them off yet as they know how to deal with their winter, is giving me worry.  
Essentially, it is seeming more and more likely that we are going to have another substandard spring phosphate season...and the phosphate market desperately needed to clean out inventories.  
On the bullish side, I think we will need to start discussing "catch up".  We have had a few seasons in a row where phosphate demand has been down.  The discussion will start focusing on "do we need to do an application catch up"?  Have soil levels dipped enough that if applications do not happen going forward, yields will suffer?
All the forward stuff aside, the immediate reaction is that phosphate prices still appear bearish with another spring season wrapping up.
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana DAP price comparison
Number 5 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021
Top 5 export destinations (2.6MMT exported in 2021)
  1. Canada (63%)
  2. Brazil (11%)
  3. Colombia (7%)
  4. Mexico (6%)
  5. Australia (5%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs 30 days ago
  • Vs 90 days ago - -3% or approximately $20 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -17% or approximately $120 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -40% or approximately $400 lower

U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - -1% or approximately $7 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -4% or approximately $27 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -18% or approximately $146 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -37% or approximately $378 lower

U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $23 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -3% or approximately $21 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -17% or approximately $138 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -35% or approximately $363 lower

U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison

  • Vs 30 days ago - +1% or approximately $9 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - 0% or approximately $3 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - -14% or approximately $111 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -33% or approximately $331 lower

Morocco DAP price comparison

Number 2 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (7M exported in 2021)

  1. Brazil (28%)
  2. India (14%)
  3. Bangladesh (8%)
  4. Argentina (6%)
  5. Nigeria (4%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $43 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $115 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -24% or approximately $190 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -51% or approximately $638 lower

Black Sea DAP price comparison

Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (4MMT exported in 2021)

  1. India (42%)
  2. United States (21%)
  3. Australia (8%)
  4. Brazil (9%)
  5. Kenya (5%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -10% or approximately $63 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -12% or approximately $79 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -15% or approximately $103 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -35% or approximately $302 lower

India DAP price comparison

Number 2 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 import origins (4.8MMT imported in 2021)

  1. China (39%)
  2. Saudi Arabia (35%)
  3. Morocco (20%)
  4. Jordan (3%)
  5. Russia (2%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -8% or approximately $48 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $114 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -21% or approximately $158 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -37% or approximately $346 lower

China DAP price comparison

Number 1 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (10MMT exported in 2021)

  1. Brazil (19%)
  2. India (19%)
  3. Pakistan (9%)
  4. Bangladesh (7%)
  5. Thailand (6%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -6% or approximately $35 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $108 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -20% or approximately $148 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -47% or approximately $505 lower

Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison

Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 export destinations (4.1MMT exported in 2021)

  1. India (42%)
  2. United States (21%)
  3. Australia (9%)
  4. Brazil (8%)
  5. Kenya (5%)

Price comparisons:

  • Vs 30 days ago - -9% or approximately $55 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $110 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -23% or approximately $166 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -50% or approximately $578 lower

Brazil DAP price comparison

Number 1 importer of DAP/MAP in 2021

Top 5 import origins (6.15MMT imported in 2021)

  1. China (32%)
  2. Morocco (31%)
  3. Russia (24%)
  4. Saudi Arabia (5%)
  5. United States (5%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago --7% or approximately $45 lower 
  • Vs 90 days ago - -7% or approximately $43 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago --14% or approximately $100 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -53% or approximately $695 lower

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Phosphate manufacturers slowing/stopping production to "balance the S&D" – while this would be considered by some as a desperation move, the result is the same.  If manufacturers start to see profits dwindle or turn negative, they can easily slow/stop production which removes expected supplies from the marketplace.  While not a guarantee to push prices higher, history would show that it works more times than not. 
  • 2023 Chinese exports could disappoint again – 2022 exports of DAP/MAP from China failed to come close to their "norm".  This single event removed millions of tons from the global marketplace...not that you would notice with values receding.  However, if this patter continues into 2023, it may narrow the global S&D enough to level out prices or even start pushing them higher.
  • India/Brazil offseason demand could continue to surprise and prop the market – there is an argument to be made that with India/Brazil being ahead of schedule on imports that they will not be present in the market in the coming months which would create a deeper demand black hole.  However, if they surprise the market and continue to step in, they could help set a price floor.
Bearish Factors
  • Poor North American spring demand leads to high inventory carryover into summer...which leads to lower prices – while I'm not ready to throw in the towel for the spring season, I definitely am standing at the rope with it in hand.  Most of the Midwest has been cooler/wetter than usual which is keeping farmers out of the fields.  The Northern Plains...well, enough said there.  Winter sports folks should be thrilled up there.  Essentially, we finish spring with demand down for phosphate once again, we will carry a lot of inventory into the summer and that will act as an anchor on the market.
  • DAP futures market pointing to lower values today – today, NOLA DAP values are trading around $600 (round number).  The futures market has been indicating prices in the mid to low $500's...and it has been tough to find bids.  While markets can change, that is a solid representation of what the market thinks.
  • While it has improved, the current grain/DAP ratios are still some of the highest out there – that does not mean that it has to improve but it does show that of all the fertilizers, it seems phosphate has done the least amount of price work.  Sure, values are down significantly from their high's but when compared to other products, there is lot of work to do.
Where are the current phosphate/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 150 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
  • Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

Josh Linville’s focal points
  • Chinese/Russian export levels - as the number 1 and 4 global exporter of DAP/MAP, it makes sense that we need to watch them.  Given the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and continued fear that China will do similar in Taiwan, it makes sense that we need to watch closely as things could change in a moment.  Not saying it will happen but if you see an escalation on the news, there is no need to wait for my POV.  You know what it will mean for phosphate values.
  • Florida production costs - I've said this many times before but it still is worth repeating.  We do not operate on a production cost plus model.  However, phosphate values have continued to decline with a growing chorus wondering what will stand in its way.  One of our big beliefs has been manufacturers slowing/stopping production to "balance the S&D".  That happens when manufacturing becomes a loss.  The closer you get to slowing/stopping production, the slower the price slide.  Well, as Florida production costs continue to drop as they did this month, that price floor continues to drop and gives market bears more ammunition to push values lower.
  • North American spring demand - right now, things are not looking good for spring phosphate application.  Lot of the Midwest has been cold/wet and made it impossible to get field work done.  It gets infinetaly worse in the Northern Plains.  While still too early to tell for sure, there are a lot of signs pointing to a disappointing spring demand.  If that happens, that means we carry a lot of inventory into the summer...and phosphate bulls desperately needed to clean out the system to turn the mindset.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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