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April Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

April '23 UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Vice President- Fertilizer
major global uan export location price graph
As mentioned in other products, the price graphs should be viewed by their price direction, not their absolute price.  The first graph looks at the Black Sea and NOLA values on a short ton basis.  The second looks at the same points except in metric ton.  Both are in USD.

 
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
 
I'm honestly between bullish and bearish today.
Globally, European production rates are still 30 - 40% lower than normal and Russian exports are still struggling to find homes easily.  However, the trend has been definitively lower for a while now.
I lean bearish globally but the tighter than normal S&D has me a little spooked
For North American, it comes down to the corn acres.  We are fairly confident that this spring will go down as "poor" in terms of NH3 application.  If corn acres remain the same, that should mean a surge in UAN demand.  That's bullish, right?  However, last spring taught us that corn acreage expectations are far from guaranteed to remain unchanged.
North America, I'm leaning short term bullish due to demand surge from lack of NH3 application...but I reserve the right to be wrong...very wrong!
Honestly, it comes down to corn in my book.  Summer is whole other conversation and not one to have today.
should you buy your Spring '23 uan needs today?
The Southern Plains have shown what happens when demand does step forward.  Their basis to NOLA (looking at Tulsa, OK) has skyrocketed with demand stepping forward.  Supply simply cannot stay ahead of demand.  Sellers are in control.  That makes me want to tell you to buy your UAN today at least for preplant because when demand comes, it will be big.
However, last spring is very vivid in my mind today.  We lost a lot of acreage/demand and values plummeted.  That has me thinking sidedress demand has more downside work to do.
Ultimately, have a conversation with your supplier/retailer and gauge their POV on what they can/cannot get done.
I guess you are not here to not have me make calls:
Preplant, I wouldn't wait.  I would rather know the product is in place and waiting for me with a spring season that has already been difficult.  I would not want to be in a position to have to wait a few days for product to show up.  The possible savings isn't worth it in my (non-existent) book.
Sidedress, if your supplier does not have concern about getting product in place, it is worth watching...but do not go too long.  If we keep corn acres steady/higher and we decide NH3 was a failure, UAN demand is going to be booming and I'm going to be eating this report.  Do keep in mind that the further away you are from a production point, the harder it is to get tons "just in time".
general global uan information
image 59308
image 42602
What has happened in the last 30 days?
European production continues to disappoint
We fully believed that more European nitrogen production would be online by today.  The Dutch TTF reached an all-time high of $103MMbut which lowered European nitrogen production rates to 20 - 30% of normal.  Today, that price is trading in the $12 - $16MMbtu range...yet production rates have only improved to 60 - 70% of normal.
Europe accounts for a solid portion of global production.  Their continuing to be lower rates than normal means the global S&D remains much tighter than normal.  That also gives origins such as North America a route for excess tonnage.
North American demand story is an interesting one
If last spring had not happened, you would hear my singular POV be "with NH3 looking to be a failure, UAN is going to see a windfall of demand that is going to boost values and make supplies hard to find".  Don't get me wrong, that is still a distinct possibility. 
However, last spring did happen and it taught us a valuable lesson.  Corn acres can change and change quickly.
What we learned is that corn acres dropping from a previous estimate of 93 - 95M to an eventual 88.6M has impacts...major impacts...on N demand.
Today, some may tell you that the corn market cannot see a similar drop in acreage this spring.  The stocks to use number is way too tight and December '23 corn values rising indicate that the market is willing to fight to keep what they see as theirs.
If corn acres remain or push slightly higher, UAN is going to see a boost in demand which will help keep prices from falling.  If we start losing big acreage, that means N demand is down and the market is going to struggle.
Isn't nitrogen fun....
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 
Number 1 importer (2.5mmt in 2021) AND number 5 exporter (563kmt in 2021)
Top 5 import origins
  1. Russia (42%)
  2. Trinidad/Tobago (33%)
  3. Canada (17%)
  4. Algeria (4%)
  5. Netherlands (2%)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. France (31%)
  2. Belgium (18%)
  3. Argentina (14%)
  4. Germany (6%)
  5. Poland (5%)

Price Comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -2% or approximately $5 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -40% or approximately $180 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -51% or approximately $280 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -57% or approximately $360 lower

U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - +1% or approximately $4 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -38% or approximately $200 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -44% or approximately $257 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -52% or approximately $349 lower

Black Sea (Russia)

Number 1 exporter (2.2mmt in 2021)

Top 5 export destinations

  1. United States (49%)
  2. Australia (16%)
  3. Argentina (6%)
  4. France (5%)
  5. Canada (4%)

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -29% or approximately $73 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -64% or approximately $311 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -67% or approximately $357 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -75% or approximately $513 lower

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Poor N.A. NH3 demand could cause UAN demand to skyrocket – this assumes that corn acres remain unchanged.  Last spring taught us that losing corn acres was a much bigger deal than a lower NH3 run.  However, preplant NH3 demand is not looking good and we are not yet dropping our corn acre estimate.  If that holds, UAN could see a huge wave of demand as farmers switch their N source. 
  • Grain values surging could have farmers spending more money – it's a tale as old as time.  When grain values rise, farmers want to maximize yields.  While still a far cry from their recent high's, Dec '23 corn has jumped 20 - 25 cents.  That ain't nothing and could have farmers considering a last minute purchase.
  • Lower Europe/Russia supplies could eventually "catch up" – I say "catch up" because we have been without these supplies, yet prices have been falling.  If we continue for the foreseeable future with those tons non-existent, eventually demand could surpass supply which would cause values to rise.  
Bearish Factors
  • Russian produced tons are cut from a few "normal" destinations which could cause puking – while a lot of the world backed off strong language that they would not do business with Russia going forward, a few brave nations actually practiced what they preached.  With some of Russia's normal customers no longer available to them, it could make them more desperate to find homes which theoretically means lower pricing.
  • Poor North American spring weather could destroy corn acre expectation – again, this is a story that isn't told yet.  Today, I'm still in the camp of "corn acres will remain flat which should mean a UAN demand boost" but last spring weighs heavy.  If we start seeing more and more estimations drop the corn acre number, UAN demand will drop.
  • Return of European production/Russian exports – global UAN values have been falling with both supply sources lower than normal.  If they return to their former glory, how much lower will prices fall?
Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

 
Josh Linville’s focal points
  • North American corn acres - the storyline should be "lack of preplant NH3 demand means a wave of UAN demand is coming as farmers look to replace N units".  However, spring '22 taught us the lesson that it is not always the case.  Last spring, following a poor NH3 run, we saw corn acres drop from an expected 93 - 95M acres to a 88.6M acres number.  That is a lot of demand that was lost.  It isn't to say the same will be repeated this spring...but after getting it wrong last spring, it is high on my watch list.
  • European production rates - even with natural gas values falling from their August '22 high of $103MMbut to a current $12 - $16MMbtu, European nitrogen production rates remain in the 60 - 70% range.  While a huge improvement from where they were, it still leaves them short of normal and with Europe accounting for approximately 1 out of every 5 tons produced globally, the lack of production should be felt everywhere.
  • Continued Russian aggression in Ukraine could keep their UAN exports lower than normal - it doesn't appear that Russia is giving up anytime soon and Ukraine continues to fight the good fight.  As long as the conflict continues, Russia is going to struggle more with their UAN exports with most typically going to western friendly nations.  Not to say they are completely cut off but their numbers have been down.  As the largest exporter, this tightens the global S&D.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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