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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Uncertain markets feeling demand pressure as rain further improves northern season

Key Points

  • Steadily building QLD supply looks like the order for 2026, with the wet weather holding back numbers similar to 2025, supply likely to peak in May in the first half of this year.
  • Wholesale spot diesel prices at A$2.70/L plus for Brisbane is encouraging a pullback in rates from feedlotters and processors as cost of freight begins to crunch margins.
  • Brazilian exports into the US, 221% ahead of Australian exports indicate the level of supply pressure Brazil is going to place on the Australian market from a competitive perspective in 2026.

Supply

  • Driving Emerald to Rocky last week, I didn’t pass a single cattle truck – whilst a lot of choppers flying into Emerald to do a very expensive store run!
    • This situation of short supply through CQ should hang around for some time – most producers through this belt are pretty pleased with where things are at. Buffel from Emerald to Blackwater is next level.
  • The sell down has well and truly begun in northern NSW – record yardings across the major saleyard centres of Gunnedah, Tamworth, Inverell & Armidale (2nd Highest on record) this week are proof of that cyclical liquidation we’re beginning to see across Northern NSW.
    • You’ve only got to look at numbers of cows sold out of the yards to provide a good indication of the sell down mentality in these regions.
  • Discussions with producers in the far north this week indicate they want to sell some cattle for cash flow reasons – that will add to the narrative of stronger supply late April into May when musters can get rolling properly for first round.
  • QLD supply looks like having a similar 1st half of the year to 2025, steadily building in supply until its peak in Q3 – this is important because that situation may align with major pressure on feedlots and processor capacity as the year develops.
  • Without knowing for sure, you could nearly guarantee the CQ plants of Teys Rocky & Bilioela and JBS Rocky are all operating on reduced shifts / capacity due to accessibility issues for cattle at present through their supply areas – last week’s slaughter figures indicate that.
  • Brazilian exports to USA in January reached 76,203 metric tonnes, up 8% compared to Jan-25 numbers – for context that figure is 221% or 52,457 mt higher than Australian exports to USA for January
    • A good example of the supply pressure Brazil is placing on Australia to compete in the lucrative US market and a dynamic I foresee continuing for 2026

Demand

  • The engine room of Angus & British X feeder supply of Northern NSW could see shorter supply in Q3/Q4 of 2025 due to the sell down occurring throughout these regions at present due to dry turning drought conditions – which will impact demand for weaner cattle also.
  • Demand is holding and should do for the next few weeks I suspect at a feedlot / processor level – when the rush of supply comes out of QLD, which it will, that should pressure values.
  • Despite the strength of seasonal conditions broadly across most regions, demand has seemingly faltered a little this week – freight, cost of production and buy side pressure has weighed on interest.
    • The fundamentals of the trade remain sound but as we know, emotion and external noise can play a big role in the mood of the market.

Price

  • Feedlots & processors will look to pull grids back where they can, with diesel at $2.70/L plus (QLD price) the cost squeeze on freight and margins overall is real.
    • Add on top for feedlots, the rise of the grain price and that’s adding additional pressure.
  • My bullish outlook for feeder prices lifting in winter for crossbred cattle has faded since the war began – mainly driven by the issue of freight I mention above – southern buyers may not be as keen to chase northern crossbreds due to freight bill to get them home.
    • That potential, weaker demand in northern markets, amidst strong flatback supply has softened my outlook for strong prices in the colder months.
  • Somewhat counterintuitively, markets eased this week – I think it has a bit to do with my demand point above, that there’s some uncertainty underlying the current situation which is eroding confidence in the short term to buy at dearer rates or chase the market.

Weather

  • Further rains for the far north this week, other than a small patch in SE NSW & NE VIC, the remainder of the country to be dry.
    • March is an excellent time to grow grass for Queenslanders and regions that have received rains this month will enjoy some clear weather to kick grass production fully into gear.  
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