Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Fri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:52

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Heightened levels of market volatility return as producer confidence in outlook for seasonal conditions dissipates quickly.

Key Points

Heightened levels of price volatility for cattle will likely be seen for the remainder of this year – driven by quickly changing views on seasonal conditions.
Brisbane spot diesel prices (excluding early April 2026) are sitting at or near their highest levels on record, despite Brent Crude prices softening sharply post their recent highs set a fortnight ago.
Improving root zone soil moisture levels for the south will bring a big Spring as the weather warms up – whilst a rain event due over the next week may bring some shortness in supply and increased demand out of these areas.

Supply

August supply should begin to build from here on in, the south may remain shortish with this weather event due but expect to see a lot more cattle flow from that region back north once crop cattle start to move in bigger volumes.
Second round musters should be in full swing in the north which will deliver another flush of northern cows.
Weekly slaughter continues to deteriorate – cut shifts from plants across the broader eastern states is what is weighing on this, underpinned by economics causing these decisions for dropped days to occur.
A side note à I’m still not sure why the beef & red meat industry more broadly has sat idly and allowed for critical data reporting like slaughter & production numbers to remain being reported on a quarterly basis for over 5 years… it surprises me that we just sit and accept that quarterly reporting on critical information is now the norm, whereas prior to COVID, ABS would report this information monthly.. yet no one has batted an eyelid about it.. why?

Demand

The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) is really an index which is shows producer confidence at the restocker level, it shouldn’t be used for anything else other than that, a confidence barometer.
- You’ll note I never reference it in my commentary and for good reason – but… its performance in the past 4 weeks is a great example of where confidence and ultimately demand sits at the producer level for restocker cattle à and currently that confidence and demand is falling quickly.
- Actual restocker prices are down sharply and are leading this easing cycle – the concern in central / northern NSW & southern QLD around the outlook for the season is showing as dry conditions bite again
- Expect this to continue for most of August with little in the way of rain for these regions on the forecast.
Demand for Angus feeders is likely to be at or near its peak now, as cattle heading into feed pens will exit their programs early next year destined for China – that demand cycle is colliding with economic challenges around feeding Angus at present – creating these competitive forces I’ve referenced about the broader market in the H2 Outlook Report podcast last week.
At the slaughter level – reduced days operating will be adding to a weakening in demand for slaughter cattle – the weekly NLRS slaughter volumes aligning with kill cattle prices are proof of this.

Price

We’ve seen sharp moves in prices both ways so far in 2026 and for a seller, the recent moves are a good reminder about risk management and implementing a strategy to protect businesses against price volatility.
$6.00 crossbred backgrounders are starting to look expensive…
The peak set in April didn’t last long, but if that period post the Middle east conflict was ignored, current spot diesel prices would be at or near their highest levels since records began
- A reminder of the cost pressure on the supply chain that is remaining prevalent despite Brent Crude prices easing substantially off their recent highs set a fortnight ago.
- Its likely there simply could be a lag between brent crude and spot diesel rates in Australia – so that diesel price may fall, but the point is the higher diesel prices will be felt somewhere in the supply chain.
With prices at Decile 9 and 10 levels – producers have made the smart decision and chosen to offload cattle to capture the market value presented – there has been a fair bit of that going on, on top of the end of the FY26 financial year and drier seasonal conditions also adding to supply.
As above – restocker prices have felt the brunt of this weakening demand in this easing cycle – mainly driven by reduced confidence in the seasonal outlook.
- Monitor rain events beginning to build from H2 September in the northern regions – expect continued intense volatility in light cattle prices underpinned by the weather.

Weather

July drier than average for a lot of the regions who experienced a challenging start to 2026 – central eastern Australia that is – with May and to an extent, June, looking like an anomaly with wet weather. Little in the way of meaningful rain likely for these effected regions for another 4-6 weeks.
Soil moisture map for July indicates the strong recovery the south is seeing in sub soil moisture at the root zone level – setting these regions up for a big Spring as southern frontal systems continue to deliver rain.
A strong event due for broad regions of SE SA/ VIC & Southern NSW arriving on time over the next week – a tightening in southern supply could be expected as a result of this, coupled with an uptick in demand from southerners in northern regions chasing supply

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 26

August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 13:31

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