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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Forecast rains to drive strong price rally next week as bullish sentiment drives strong demand for light cattle. 

Key Points

  • Markets look primed for a very solid end to 2025 – further rises in prices to be expected – only a few weeks of 40 degrees and wind would pull some confidence back.
  • Processor space bookings disappear on rains, forecast or actual, and slaughter is partly affected as a result – makes you wonder why they bother doing it…
  • Heifers continue to show strong buying opportunities – 80c - $1/kg discount for restocker heifers relative to steers in NSW/QLD.

Supply

  • Numbers continuing to flow despite the rain forecast for northern NSW / QLD – saleyard supply well up this week.  
    • What surprised me this week was the lack of trucks on the road on the Downs and Maranoa – not as many cattle moving as I probably would have thought.
  • Slaughter eased last week, a down around 8k on the week prior – these reductions are partly due to producers pulling back from space bookings due to rain -it makes you continue to wonder why processors offer space bookings for wet weather scenarios like this one…
  • Don’t be surprised to see a hold on selling cattle in the remaining 6 weeks of this year from producers if the cattle are light enough – choosing to hold back and market in 2026

Demand

  • Producer demand is red hot for light cattle currently, a product of an improved outlook on only a few weeks ago – this demand uptick stretches from the western districts in VIC to central Queensland.
  • Feeder market has rallied strongly this week – some uncertainty and concern at the feedlot level for supply availability to end the year.
  • Conversations this week have indicated to me Queensland producers are generally optimistic across the board, and recovery from the 2023 market crash through stable cattle prices in FY2025 is beginning to repair underlying business health – now that the market has rallied and we’re into Q2 of FY26, this recovery and improvement in underlying earnings will be continuing.

Price

  • Markets rallying strongly this week – based on a forecast…  - renewed confidence back in the job based on the rain.
    • Light steers to background / trade now over $5 nationally – the wild swings in confidence underpinned by the weather continue to demonstrate underlying instability in the market.
  • Reduced supply and a heigthended demand has really pushed crossbred feeder prices this week – saleyard feeders making over $5/kg in Roma this week.
  • As per the forecast below – expect to see a strong end to the 2025 markets if this rain eventuates – it should be enough to encourage producers to retain cattle (if they receive the rains) or alternatively sell into a strong market.
    • For the past 2 years, we’ve seen November / December rains really push the market higher to close out the year – a similar situation looks to be the case in 2025.
  • Heifers continue to look cheap relative to steers – that would be my play currently if I had one – based on spot values you’re looking at an 80c - $1/kg discount.

Weather

  • On the road this week – this change coming through has been constantly discussed – producers are waiting for it – if it delivers expect a very strong end to 2025.
  • Tempering the positivity – a few weeks of 40 degrees and wind could see a sharp windback in confidence – but all things equal this forecast sets up the end of the year very solidly for the producer.

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