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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Global supply headwinds intensify as forecast rain spikes confidence

Key Points

  • Argentinian access to the US market with expanded quota limits for lean beef trimmings alongside the backdrop of the Aussie strengthening due to a weak USD, will further pressure Australian finished cattle prices this year.
  • Markets are reacting to favourable forecast this week, particularly light cattle prices. Expect further strength in the job next week, feeder grids will have to rise to match the lift in the yards and a reduction in QLD supply.
  • Weekly cattle slaughter reaching its highest level since June 2025 so early in the 26’ season is pleasing to see – particularly as noted in the Outlook report, with slaughter capacity going to become a focal point in 2026.

Argentina Quota lift to Access US Market

  • Last Friday, the US Administration announced a “temporary” increase of 80,000 metric tons (4 quarters of 20k mt) Argentina’s beef quota to the US to 100,000 metric tonnes, specific to beef trimmings
  • Argentina’s historical export performance to the US has been low generally, with limited volumes shipped – BUT I would take this announcement seriously, the boom in exports to China from Australia is a great example of how countries can go from 0-100 very quickly.
    • The US supply situation is not going to resolve itself within 12 months which adds further weight to this announcement, driven by the need to satiate US citizens with access to cheaper beef.
  • This announcement, adds further downward price pressure to the H2 2026 outlook for Australian export grade cattle prices (cows & heavy steers).
    • Throw in this rising AUD complex against a weak greenback, and that dynamic should add weight to weaking export slaughter cattle prices in H2
    • Exchange rates point to the weakest USD/AUD spread since early February 2023, 3 years ago, as other currencies sell off the USD – strengthening our exchange rate.
    • This isn’t a case of a strong Aussie, it’s a case of a weak USD.

Supply

  • NSW saleyard supply sharply contracted this week, with the patchy storms across the broader west of the state the driver – QLD volumes also lower – mainly on the back of this forecast for rain over the weekend – see weather map below.
  • Cow supply should be very strong throughout 2026 – and as such, expect to the female slaughter rate continuously operate above the so called rebuild / liquidation threshold of 47% for 2026 in its entirety.
    • As I’ve said before, use the FSR only as a guide – in my view it doesn’t accurately reflect where the cattle cycle is at.
    • For support, breeding female numbers in the country in November 2025 at 14.68 million head remained unchanged on 2024 despite the FSR well into “liquidation” territory for all of 2025, whilst the overall herd grew Year on Year.
    • I was the only one calling herd growth in 2025 and it delivered and I didn’t use the FSR to inform those forecasts or calls.
  • Watch for a sharp contraction in supply again next week following this rain – producers will sit tight with marketing plans, encouraging buyers to bid up – enhancing volatility in the marketplace.
  • Weekly cattle slaughter reached its highest level since late June 2025 as processors begin to recover to normal production levels – this is pleasing to see volumes hit this level so early in the season.

Demand

  • Granted there were some falls throughout the western regions of NSW and patchy through the central, but markets realistically have rallied on the back of a forecast rather than actual totals this week.
    • When regions have been dry for some time, as mentioned in the StoneX H1 Cattle Market Outlook report, the dependence producers have on rain forces wild swings in demand, confidence and supply which further fuels price volatility.
  • Demand across the buyers complex remains relatively solid, feeders taking a longer forward position due to numbers available is subsiding necessity to overcompete, but if rain pulls supply (highly likely) à we’ll see feeder demand strengthen next week.
  • These falls through CQ into the northern downs / maranoa have the potential to be season defining if they deliver in widespread nature – which will stoke demand for light cattle prices.

Price

  • I mentioned a few weeks ago the only thing that would halt this easing cycle for cattle prices was widespread rain – and with general model alignment for this change over the weekend – watch this cattle market fire up in dry/drought affected areas next week – CQ into the Downs / Maranoa particularly.
  • In the short term, prices look likely to operate like a bell curve, they should have a rally over the next week or two with this rain before entering another easing cycle, likely to end up where they started before this rain pushed prices higher.
  • The continued dislocation of NSW versus QLD restocker steer prices is encouraging more QLD’ers to venture into the NSW markets to secure stock, creating additional competition in saleyard markets for light cattle – rain in QLD over the next week will further support this.
  • Feeder grids will rise next week on the back of this rain if it delivers in a widespread nature. , they’ll have to to catch saleyards and producers demands - $5.00 more broadly on crossbred feeders is now in play.

Weather

  • All eyes are on this system I mentioned last week due to hit the QLD coast this week and venture inland – models are retracting totals for northern NSW which is not the best sign, but the widespread nature for falls in QLD is very positive, particularly on the Downs & Maranoa which need it badly.
  • The strength of the northern wet season continues to deliver – setting the north up for another very very strong year season wise.
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