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Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

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Key Points

  • Beef exports on track for another record month in Feb-26, the rush to get product out the door to China a contributor here alongside big slaughter numbers.
  • Feeders cycling out of Wagyu into shorterfed cattle will aid overall turnoff out of yards again in 2026, with the China announcement further forcing this.
  • A continuation of this long duration weather event is set to address some serious water deficiencies in the south if it falls as forecast, whilst on top of that, shortening southern supply and pushing prices higher.

Supply

  • Numbers should remain short in the south, which will further push the presence of southern processors in northern markets over the next few weeks  - this should be supportive for kill cattle prices.
  • The strength of the season north of the Carnarvon Gorge in QLD means that seasonal early feeder supply will be delayed again in 2026, mirroring the impacts and supply delay experienced off the back of the March 2025 floods / rain.
    • What this should translate to, is heightened substantial volumes offered through May/June à the wet weather has set back a number of producers significantly discussions I’ve had with the market has indicated this week.
  • Feedlots continue to tell me they’re very well supplied into late next month, one example was a grouped consignment offer of 60 decks, with the best rate they could find, 10c less than the spot price for a Flatback feeder delivered Downs.
  • Beef exports on track for another record month of February, month to date volumes have a Feb-26 estimate placed at 130,000 mt– figures released next week will confirm the rush to get product to China, whilst elevated slaughter volumes are supporting overall output.

Demand

  • Feeders are well supplied with cattle which is allowing them not to chase the market higher – and if certain regions aren’t supplying, Northern & Central NSW / Southern QLD can be looked to to offset lower supply availability elsewhere.
  • The situation  I’ve mentioned over the past 12 months around feedlots cycling out of Angus into shorterfed cattle now looks likely to be true for Wagyu’s as well – the China announcement will have bruised the feedlotters & brands and I believe they’ll be sensitive and fed up with the constant volatility in price performance and market access – encouraging them to seek shelter in a more stable trading environment in a shorter fed animal for a period.
    • Which should drive demand for shorter fed cattle when this begins to properly unravel and pen space is switched out from Wag’s into short fed cattle.

Price

  • I’d call saleyard markets stable this week, confidence returned to some regions following rain but at best price performance has been patchy – well bred stock in the yards continue to command the strong rates.
  • Grids from feedlots have ticked up as I thought they would – swaps trades have also risen on the back of higher spot prices.
  • The inevitable slowdown in southern slaughter supply to coincide with a continued improvement in southern seasonal conditions, particularly April – will support cow prices as southerners compete heavily in northern markets again – although as I’ve noted this year, I suspect that rally to be shortlived – the pressure Brazil will place on us in H2 in the US market will play a major role here.

Weather

  • This long duration weather event is set to continue next week – bringing excellent and season defining rain across SA, SW NSW & VIC – these rains should aid some of the serious water deficiencies some of these regions are experiencing if it delivers as forecast.
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  • Root zone soil moisture Month to Date for February 2026 – the below average conditions through central & northern NSW are clear – whilst the exceptional season the north is experiencing rolls on, driving excellent moisture availability levels.

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