Australian Cattle & Beef Market Report

By: Ripley Atkinson, Ripley Atkinson

Thu, 05 Mar 2026, 18:31

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No signs of Australian herd rebuild as US cattle supply tightness in the spotlight

Key Points

US price risk management is as engrained in their culture in the beef industry like cricket and summer are for Australians.
US Packers bleeding money at present – a further reduction in kill space is likely throughout 2026.
No signs of an Australian rebuild based on restocker heifer demand with price discounts for heifers against restocker steers hitting their highest quarterly level, in actual terms, on record in Q1 2026 at 90c/kg lwt
- If these spreads were tight, that would demonstrate rebuild intent, but they’ve continued to widen.
If and when an EU-AUS Free Trade Agreement is announced, expect to see a sharp rally in the spreads between EUCAS accredited feeder cattle and non EUCAS accredit, as feeders jostle to secure supply.

Supply

US Cattle slaughter for WE Friday 20^th February was the smallest total the country had seen in 10 years at 516,000 head
I sat in on some client calls this week between our US Futures desk & their clients à significant amounts of time was solely focused on understanding how tight cattle supplies are and the implications is for price.
- Multiple plants across the US are either shutting down, slowing kill speeds or coming up with “reasons” for slow downs in the kill – with ultimately the markets view being that they’re trying to stop bleeding on average US$200-$300/head.
Gunnedah, highest yarding since 2016 this week and last weeks combined total for fat and store sales at Tamworth was the highest week on record for the yard.
- Monthly yarding’s at Tamworth for Feb-26 were also a record high – over 22,000 head went through the yard across store and fat sales.
Purely speculative but unfortunately if this Iran War drags out and shipping routes are continually disrupted, this could be the straw that breaks the camels back for the economics of the live sheep & cattle export trade out of WA in 2026.
- Particularly with a rebuild on the cards for the WA sheep flock and higher prices as seasonal conditions continue to improve.
- Remember that cattle are also loaded on these boats that are primarily loaded with sheep, so it also affects the beef industry in WA’s southern markets.

Demand

For those with the ability, the cow and calf unit trade looks like very good buying in store markets currently, both online and in physical sales – when it gets dry in regions, these types continue to offer good value.
Northern restockers haven’t been able to fully engage in southern markets yet due to wet weather and getting trucks in to unload cattle – when they do, that’ll support prices for light stock.
- Expect a big presence in the northern & central NSW weaner sales from Queenslanders.
I expect to see large numbers of grainfed kill cattle trucked from feedlots into southern Australian processing plants in 2026, alongside more numbers of northern cows to supplement the shortening in southern supply.
As I suspected, we’re very quickly getting pushed out of the Indonesian market by Brazil on the boxed beef side – already in 2 months YTD volumes down 61%, price sensitivity a major driver here.
- On the other hand, export volumes to Canada are up 52% YTD – this market will continue to rise through the ranks in 2026.

Price

Media reporting an announcement on the EU-AUS FTA is likely within the next few weeks (been saying that for 2 years so who knows) à if that announcement does pull through, watch demand from feeders spike for non pilled, EU accredited cattle that fit within the EUCAS specs – there’ll be a clear premium for those types if and when the announcement comes as feeders & brands jostle to get those accredited cattle on feed.
Discounts for restocker heifer versus steers is again above $1/kg lwt in the spot saleyard indicators – an early sign of confidence slipping in NSW for those light female types – heifers are always the first to go.
- For proof, restocker heifer discounts to steer prices on a national level (2/3rds of the way through Q1 26) are now at their widest level on record in actual terms at -90c/kg lwt – further evidence that a herd rebuild is a very long way away.
Here in the US this week talking to the meat market, Aussies are well and truly priced out on Trim relative to Brazil – our 90’s are on average 30c/lb dearer than the Brazilian 90’s and importers / end users are looking towards Brazil instead.
Aussie 90’s are trading around 3.70-3.80 /lb CIF US West & East Coast – and with the cow price where it is, indicates to me the processors are still printing green on cows at present, market strength there with a lift in the trim rates since the beginning of the year against the backdrop of a softer cow price since markets opened in 2026.
Feeders continuing to gently nudge higher – this rain forecast for CQ from a low in the Coral sea should further shorten some numbers – feed yards books have shortened up a touch I’ve been told – this rain will likely mean sellers double down on holding numbers.
Angus spreads haven’t yet started their rally over crossbreds but its coming – next week 6 weeks should really start to see that take shape.
- Seasonally, Angus spreads over flatbacks are half what they were for the same week in 2025 – 18c today versus 36c/kg lwt in 25’.

Weather

These rains through the broader west of NSW and QLD have masked the fact that the regions further to the east in both states are still very dry.
Speaking with the northern QLD this week – they don’t want anymore rain. Paddocks are water logged and they’re itching to get the year started and buy / sell cattle.
- When the numbers start moving out of the north, they’ll come in big volumes and come quickly – something to be aware of for April / May.

Meats & Livestock

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