By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region
This week, the ECB President Christine Lagarde reaffirmed her stance towards raising interest rates across the region while presenting to European Parliament lawmakers, stating that “If we were to have any kind of tightening approach to the current situation, it would actually do more harm than good”. She went on further to say that raising interest rates “would begin having an impact at a time when inflation is actually returning to lower levels”, expelling any expectations; at least for the moment, that rates rises could occur in 2022. This is in stark comparison to across the pond, in which the outcome of the September Federal Reserve meeting highlighted the increased expectation for interest rate rises next year (please note here we looking at the shift in the FOMC’s outlook for federal funds rate changes—or more commonly referred to as the ‘dot plot’). (For further information please see Base Metal Commentary from 22nd September here). As a result of the announcement from President Lagarde, the euro has been in decline for most of this week, falling to its lowest level since July 2020 on Wednesday.
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Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, explains how Indonesia's tightening control over mineral exports, China's upcoming Politburo meeting and new carbon regulations are reshaping the outlook for nickel, aluminium, copper and other base metals. She discusses why supply-side risks may prove more influential than broad stimulus expectations during the second half of the year.
Copper prices are back in focus as physical supply tightens, inventories decline and demand strengthens. Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst, explains why the copper market is becoming fundamentally tighter, how Section 232 tariff uncertainty and China's buying patterns are reshaping global flows, and why AI, electrification and grid investment continue to support the long-term outlook despite recent weakness in technology stocks.
Indonesia's tightening grip on mineral exports is becoming one of the most important supply-side drivers for global metals markets. As export controls expand and nickel production quotas are reviewed, supply constraints may outweigh demand uncertainty during the second half of the year.
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