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Base Metal Commentary

By: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Demand Analyst, EMEA and Asia region

Reuters Releases Base Metal Polls – Q3 to Be the Bottom Quarter of This Year?
 
Natalie Scott-Gray
natalie.scott-gray@stonex.com
 

Every quarter, Reuters releases its price polls for the base metal suite, which are created via “surveys of expert opinion, offering views of what top forecasters in financial markets are thinking, traceable to a particular point in time - forecasters include economists and financial markets strategists from both sell- and buy-side, plus independent researchers and some academics”.  In today’s commentary, we will discuss the current outlook for prices across the suite and compare the change to the last quarter. 

Quarterly Average Price Forecast – Current Reuters Poll
   

Please note, the colour chart is highlighting the lowest (red) to highest (green) changes in prices over the Q1-2022 to Q2-2023 period.
Source: Bloomberg
 

Quarterly Average Price Forecast – Current Versus Previous Poll 

Please note, the colour chart is highlighting the lowest (red) to highest (green) changes in price for each metal over each quarter from the 
Reuters poll taken in Q2 versus the latest poll (i.e., copper Q3 2022 price previously predicted (in italic) versus the current forecast). 
Source:Bloomberg
 

Excluding nickel (in which prices have uncoupled from their fundamentals and continue to trade on the LME only during London hours), a clear trend has appeared for the rest of the suite this year, with forecast prices set to average their lowest level in Q3 before a modest recovery is expected in Q4. Looking at H1 2023, prices are set to remain near or higher than their Q4 average, although for the year as a whole, prices are expected to pull back from 2022 levels. 

In our View

In our base case, we similarly expect that prices across the suite will find moderate support in the final quarter of the year, upon reduced stock levels (and a refocus on underlying fundamentals), a pickup in Chinese physical demand (although remaining at low levels compared to 2021), in addition to increased supply disruption across Europe (particularly for aluminium and zinc smelters, underpinning prices for these two metals). However, risks to the outlook could occur from further COVID-19 spreads in China, a strengthening U.S. dollar (if the Federal Reserve takes a more hawkish stance on policy), in addition to the chance of a sudden escalation in tensions between China, the United States and Taiwan. Meanwhile, turning to H1 2023, the modestly positive outlook for the suite is likely to be driven by the energy crisis in Europe reaching a peak at the turn of the year, lifting supply concerns (although hampering demand). In addition, we forecast that interest rate rises will be largely priced in, although the continued spread of COVID-19 and the impact to China’s recovery remains uncertain, while we expect predict pain in the real estate market to extend over the year (at least). For 2023 as a whole, there is no disputing the outlook from the polls in which prices are set to soften across the suite on lower global growth and an improving supply outlook. 

Annual Average Price Forecast – Current Reuters Poll

Please note, the colour chart is highlighting the lowest (red) to highest (green) changes in prices over the Q1-2022 to Q2-2023 period.
Source: Bloomberg
 

Annual Average Price Forecast – Current Versus Previous Poll 

Please note, the colour chart is highlighting the lowest (red) to highest (green) changes in price for each metal over each quarter from the 
Reuters poll taken in Q2 versus the latest poll (i.e., copper Q3 2022 price previously predicted (in italic) versus the current forecast). 
Source:Bloomberg
 

 

The Fundamental Picture Lacks Support for Higher Prices in 2023

Source:Bloomberg
 

 

  • Base Metals

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