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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

November 1-15

image-20200803134820-1 CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​:

  • Financial Results:

    • Starbucks: Global comparable store sales declined 9%, driven by a 23% decrease in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 17% increase in average ticket
    • Kraft Heinz: Net sales increased 6.0 percent versus the year-ago period to $6.4 billion, including an unfavorable 0.3 percentage point impact from currency.
    • Keurig Green Mountain: Net sales for the third quarter of 2020 increased 5.2% to $3.02 billion, compared to $2.87 billion in the year-ago period.
  • ICO: Global output in 2019/20 is estimated at 168.84 million bags, 2.5% lower than in 2018/19. Consumption is estimated to fall by 0.9% to 167.59 million bags following an increase of 4.6% in 2018/19, leaving a surplus of 1.24 million bags.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 17,416 bags of coffee in October, up 77.2% from the 9,831 bags exported in the same month last year.
  • Central America: Hurricane Eta brought heavy rains in the north of Honduras, with some floods and overflowing rivers, mainly in the departments of Cortés, Atlántida and Colón. Guatemala and Nicaragua have also experienced heavy rainfall and flooding. No reports of damage to coffee plantations at this time.
  • Vietnam: Typhoon Molave hit Vietnam and brought heavy rainfall and flooding to some coffee areas. Full extent of damage still being assessed.
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 1.24 million bags as of November 30, down 41.5% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were down 13.7% year on year at 2.21 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image-20210302123840-1
ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image-20210302123854-2

 

Brazil:

  • CEPEA: In Espírito Santo, agents reported that rains in the first half of November contributed to fruit setting and the physiological condition of plants. In Rondônia, although rains have been more frequent, the 2021/22 crop was damaged by the dry weather and strong sunlight in previous months. According to agents, coffee trees are now debilitated, and the setting of flower and fruits was hampered, which should negatively influence next season. 

 

image-20210216142239-7 Weather Update:

image-20200803135302-7

ENSO

BOM: Most models suggest La Niña will peak in December, with around half the models anticipating a strong event. While there is some possibility that the peak strength could reach levels similar to 2010–12 there are some differences. Australian and international climate models suggest it is likely to continue at least into February 2021.

NOAA: La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~85% chance) and into spring 2021 (~60% chance during February-April).

image-20200803135302-8

BRAZIL

Northeastern showers will provide exceptional moisture for flowering and advancing coffee this week. Dryness across the southern end of the region will cause soil moisture to decrease a bit, but wetness is expected to return in the long-term forecast.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210302124019-3 Date

image-20210302124019-4 ICE

image-20210302124019-5Macro

image-20210302124019-6 Fundamental

Monday, November 2

 

 

Central America coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, November 3

 

Brazil Markit manufacturing PMI

           Balance of trade

US Election day

China Caixin services/composite PMI

Colombia coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Wednesday, November 4

 

EU Markit services/composite PMI

      PPI

UK Markit services/composite PMI

Brazil Industrial production

US ADP employment

      Balance of trade

      Markit services/composite PMI

      ISM non manufacturing

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, November 5

 

EU Retail sales

UK BoE interest rate decision

Brazil Markit services/composite PMI

US Challenger job cuts

      Initial jobless claims

      Nonfarm productivity

      Fed interest rate decision

 

Friday, November 6

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Non farm payrolls

China Balance of trade

CN weekly basis report

Monday, November 9

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Consumer inflation expectation

China Inflaton rate

            PPI

CeCafe Brazil coffee exports (+/- 2 days)

Tuesday, November 10

 

UK Unemployment rate

EU ZEW economic sentiment index

US JOLTS job openings

BOM La Nina update

 

IBGE coffee update

 

Wednesday, November 11

 

Brazil Retail sales

CEPEA weekly coffee report

Thursday, November 12

ICE December Arabica options expiry

UK GDP

       Balance of trade

       Industrial production

       Goods trade balance

EU Industrial production

US Inflation rate

      Initial jobless claims

NOAA La Nina update

 

Sintercafe Virtual event (November 12-13)

 

Friday, November 13

 

EU GDP

      Balance of trade

      Employment change

Brazil IBC-BR economic activity

            Business confidence

US PPI

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

 

Planning Ahead in November:

 

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

16

GCA stocks for October

 

Colombia closed for holiday

 

17

18

 

19

ICE December Arabica first notice day

20

 

21

 

22

 

23

 

24

ICE Europe November Robusta last trading day

25

 

26

Thanksgiving day Holiday

27

28

29

 

30

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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