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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report -August 16-30

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

August 16-30

image-20210517180556-2CoffeeNetwork Highlight

  • ICO: Estimates of total production for coffee year 2020/21 increased slightly by 0.4% at 169.6 million 60-kg bags, compared with 168.9 during the previous coffee year. While Arabica production is expected to increase by 2.3% to 99.2 million bags, a 2.1% reduction is expected in the production of Robusta coffee to 70.4 million bags. World coffee consumption is projected to rise by 1.9% to 167.58 million bags in 2020/21 compared to 164.43 million bags for coffee year 2019/20, but still 0.8% below the level of 168.5 million bags before the outbreak of the pandemic.
  • Vietnam: Exports totaled 2.038 million bags in July, down 4.5% from the previous month. This brought cumulative exports for the first seven months of the 2021 calendar year to 16.098 million bags, down 8.1% from the first seven months last year.
  • Uganda: Coffee exports totaled 700,035 60-kilo bags in July, up 29% from the same month last year. This comprised 660,458 bags of Robusta and 52,939 bags of Arabica. Compared to the same month last year, Robusta exports increased by 41.27% while Arabica exports decreased by 47.99%. July exports were the highest since liberalization of the coffee sector.
  • Colombia: Coffee exports in July totaled 1.2 million bags, up 9% from the 1.1 million bags exported in the same month last year. Production in July totaled 1.2 million bags, 8% less than the 1.3 million bags produced in the same period last year.
  • Honduras: The country’s coffee exports totaled 728,134 bags in July, up 122.8% from the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first ten months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 5.3 million bags, 2% higher than the same period of the previous coffee year.
    • The preliminary forecast for production is around 5.5 million bags (60 kg) for 2021-2022.
  • Costa Rica: Coffee exports in July totaled 124,843 bags, down 9.8% from the 138,386 bags exported in the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first ten months of the current October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 988,703 bags, up 0.9% from the 980,094 bags exported in the first ten months of the previous coffee year.
  • ECF: The latest data from the European Coffee Federation (ECF) shows that coffee stocks in the European warehouses at the ports of Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Barcelona, Trieste, Genoa, Napoli, Tallin, London, Felixstowe, and Bremen (partly) totaled 866,538 tons (14.44 million 60-kg bags) at the end of June, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous month.image-20210816141615-1
  • Japan: The latest data from the All Japan Coffee Association showed that green coffee stocks totaled 167,562 metric tons (2.79 million 60 kg bags) at the end of June. This represents a 2.5% decrease from the previous month when 171,787 tons were reported, and a 5.5% decline than the same month last year, when 177,228 tons were reported.
  • image-20210816141615-2
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 6,074,346 bags for the month ending July 31st, which is 2.1% or 294,885 bags higher than the previous month and 13.9% or 980,003 bags lower from July 2020. The five-year average for July is 6,895,362 bags. July stocks have risen an average of 135,000 bags over the last five years.
  • image-20210816141615-3
  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 2.17 million bags as of August 15th, up 56% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 29% year on year at 2.36 million bags.
  • ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

     

    image-20210816141615-4

    ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

     

    image-20210816141615-5

  • image-20210517180908-11Brazil:
  • Frost Estimates:
    • Comexim: 19% in South Minas, 13% in Sao Paulo, 13% in Cerrado and 11% in Parana
    • ECOM: 12-16% or 4.05 to 5.2 million bag
    • Marex Spectron: as much as 8.8 million bags damaged
    • Mercon: as much as 5.7 million bags
    • Exportadora de Café Guaxupe: 4.5 million bags
    • Conab: 11% of Arabica crop or 150,000 to 200,000 hectares
    • Tropical Research Services: No more than 3.5 million bags or 170,000 hectares'
    • CEPEA: 5 to 30% of crop
    • StoneX: Announced plans to conduct their first crop survey of the 2022-2023 crop after the first flowering, which should provide a more accurate assessment of the crop as a whole, as well as the damage from frost.
  • ECOM: Despite frost events that occurred during July for parts of Brazil’s Arabica coffee producing areas, 67 million bags total production for the new 2022-2023 crop is still possible, Gustavo Moretti, Brazil-based trader at ECOM tells CoffeeNetwork in an interview.
  • CECAFE: Brazil exported 2.5 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in July, down 12.4% from the 2.9 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year.image-20210816141818-11
  • CEPEA: The frosts registered in the coffee-producing regions in Brazil between July 19 and 20 boosted the domestic prices for arabica coffee. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6 (delivered to São Paulo city) surpassed 1,000 BRL/60-kilo bag, a nominal record in the series of Cepea, which began in 1996.
    • Data collected by Cepea together with collaborators indicate that, as of last week, the harvest reached 70 to 80% of the expected national production.

image-20210517180841-9 Weather update:

image-20210517180855-10

ENSO

NOAA: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).

BOM: The ENSO Outlook is INACTIVE. This means the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral with no strong indication that El Niño or La Niña will develop in the coming months, with most ENSO indices at neutral levels. While three of the seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest there is potential for a La Niña to form in spring, the majority maintain neutral conditions until the end of 2021.

image-20210517180908-11

BRAZIL

Dry weather and higher temperatures in most coffee areas this week.

 

Looking Ahead:

 

image-20210816142052-12 Date

image-20210816142052-13 ICE

image-20210816142052-14Macro

image-20210816142052-15 Fundamental

Tuesday, August 17

 

UK Employment change

EU Employment change

      GDP

US Retail sales

      Industrial production

      Manufacturing production

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, August 18

ICE Europe September Robusta options expiry

UK Inflation data

       PPI

EU Inflation data

US Housing starts

      FOMC minutes

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, August 19

 

US Jobless claims

UK Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, August 20

 

UK Retail sales

CN basis report

Monday, August 23

ICE September Arabica first notice day

EU Markit manufacturing
      /services/composite PMI

UK Markit manufacturing
      /services/composite PMI

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Markit manufacturing
      /services/composite PMI

      Existing home sales

 

Tuesday, August 24

 

US New home sales

 

Wednesday, August 25

ICE Europe September Robusta first notice day

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

            IPCA mind month CPI

US Durable goods orders

      Jackson Hole economic symposium

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, August 26

 

US GDP

      Jobless claims

 

Friday, August 27

 

US Personal spending / income

      Goods trade balance

      Wholesale inventories

      Michigan consumer sentiment

     

CN basis report

Monday, August 30

Robusta market closed for holiday

EU consumer confidence

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Pending home sales

China Non manufacturing PMI

 

Tuesday, August 31

 

EU Inflation data

Brazil Unemployment rate

US S&P/Case-Shiller homeprice

      CB consumer confidence

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Planning Ahead in September

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

1

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

Markets closed for Labor day

7

Brazil closed for holiday

8

 

9

NOAA ENSO Update

 

IBGE Brazil crop update

10

 

11

12

13

14

15

GCA stocks

 

 

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