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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - June 15-30

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

CoffeeNetwork Bi Weekly Coffee Report 

June 15-30

image-20210517180556-2CoffeeNetwork Highlight

  • ICO: The ICO composite indicator rose by 10.4% to 134.78 US cents/lb, the highest monthly average since the level of 137.68 US Cents/lb registered in February 2017. A firm upward trend of coffee prices over the first eight months of coffee year 2020/21 seems to confirm a net recovery from the low price levels that began in coffee year 2017/18. The price performance has been driven by an expected reduction in production in key exporting countries like Brazil for the 2021/22 season. Moreover, the brighter prospects for demand as the covid-19 pandemic-related lockdown measures are being removed in major consuming markets with the covid-19 vaccine programmes is generating greater confidence of consumers in an economic recovery and return to normal.
  • Nicaragua: Nicaragua’s coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2020/2021 totalled 2.27 million 60 kg bags, a drop of 15% compared to the previous year amid lack of maintenance of coffee plantations on limited credit access and the impact of hurricanes ETA and IOTA during the MY 2020/2021 coffee harvest were the main drivers of the decline. For the coffee year 2021/2022, coffee associations anticipate a moderate growth of at least five percent for a total of 2.38 million 60-kilogram (KG) bags but do not foresee a full recovery since investments on the coffee sector remain stagnant.
  • Colombia: Colombia’s coffee exports plummeted 52% in May as road blockades, violent protests and a national strike prevented coffee from arriving to ports, the National coffee growers federation. The country exported  427,000 60-kg bags in May from 894,000 bags exported in the same month of 2020, the coffee growers federation said late today.
    Colombia’s national strike, social unrest and road blockades continue for more than 40 days. On April 28, mass protests erupted across Colombia in response to President Duque's tax reform bill. Despite the bill being withdrawn, the protests and unrest continue and are obstructing the movement of goods throughout Colombia, impeding bilateral agricultural trade, and impacting food prices in the country.

    According to the Agriculture Ministry, the losses in the agricultural sector amount to about COP3.6 trillion ($1 billion) because of the blockades in the last four weeks. This panorama is alarming, considering that this figure is much higher than the losses registered in the entire time that the Covid 19 emergency has been going on, the Ministry of Agriculture said today.
    FNC has said Colombia failed to export around 800,000 bags of 60-kg in May hit by the road blockades.
  • Costa Rica: Coffee production is expected to increase slightly to about 1.485 million 60-kg bags in the coffee year 2021/2022, up by 13,000 bags from the 1.472 million bags in the  2020/2021 coffee year, the US Agricultural Department said in report.
    Costa Rica coffee exports advanced 11% in May to 159,556 green bags of Arabica coffee over the same period a year earlier, the Coffee Institute of Costa Rica shows.
  • Peru: Coffee exports in the calendar year are expected to increase 5%-10% to median of 3.7 million bags of 60-kg as renovated coffee plantations are expected to begin yielding higher amounts of coffee this year, according to the coffee and cocoa Peruvian Chamber.
  • Kenya: Coffee production will increase from 700,000 to 750,000 60-kg  bags in marketing year 2021/22 due to anticipated good weather and improved farm practices in response to higher prices, while exports are expected to increase 3% to 720,000 bags, according to the US Agriculture Department.
  • Vietnam: Vietnamese coffee exports totalled 130,285t in May (2.17M bags) with cumulative exports for the 2020/21 season standing at 17.16M bags, down by 13.2% Y/Y and 11.4% behind the five year average.
  • Japan: Coffee and tea exports from the United States are benefitting from the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA), which is allowing coffee and tea to enter the Japanese market with zero tariff, according to a report from the United States department of Agriculture.
    Exports of US roasted coffee to Japan will enjoy tariff free in the years 2021-2022 and 2023 compared with a 12% in tariff that it previous paid, according to the report. The US exported $29.8 million worth of roasted coffee to Japan in 2020. Instant coffee not containing sugar used to pay 8.8% in tariff. But starting 2021, it will pay no tariff. The US exported $3.97 million worth of instant coffee to Japan. Green Tea used to pay 17% in tariff but starting this year, it will enter tariff free.
  • USDA attaches: The USDA has released nearly all attaché  reports for coffee producing countries. With the data published so far, the  USDA already points to a 7.1% reduction in global coffee supply for 2021/22.

USDA Attaché reports

image 13947

 

 

  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 5,815,138 bags for the month ending May 31, which is 0.9% or 52,571 bags higher than the previous month and 14.7% or 1,002,982 bags lower from May 2020. The five-year average for May is 6,645,049 bags. May stocks have risen an average of 195,308 bags over the last five years.

GCA Coffee Stocks

image 13948

  • ICE Certified Stocks: Arabica stocks were reported at 2.14 million bags as of June 15th, up 28% from the same time last year. Robusta stocks were up 22% year on year at 2.66 million bags.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

image 13949

ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

image 13950

  • Brazil:
  • Certified stocks: As of June 15th, Brazilian coffee stocks totaled 1,145,002 bags (53.5%) whereas Honduras coffee totaled 822,877 bags (38.5%).
  • CeCafe: The latest data from the Brazil Coffee Export Association (CeCafe) showed that Brazil exported 2.34 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in May, down 20.5% from the 2.94 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year.
    Arabica exports totaled 2.05 million 60-kg bags, down 16.5% from the 2.46 million 60-kg bags exported in May 2020. Robusta exports totaled 287,627 60-kg bags, down 40.9% from the 486,571 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    This brought cumulative exports for the first five months of the 2021 calendar year to 16.2 million bags, up 6.6% year on year. Arabica exports for the first five months totaled 14.7 million bags (up 7.1%) and Robusta exports totaled 1.5 million bags (up 1.9%).

Brazilian Exports - Cecafe (thousand bags)

image 13951

image-20210517180841-9 Weather update:

image-20210517180855-10

ENSO

NOAA: According to the latest report from NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center of the US, the El Niño /Southern Oscillations ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere summer with a 78% for the June-August season and 50% change for September-November.

BOM: The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all oceanic and atmospheric indicators within the neutral range. Climate model outlooks show this neutral ENSO state is likely to continue until at least spring.

image-20210517180908-11

BRAZIL

5d forecast:  Showers will be limited in coverage and intensity through Saturday. 6-10d forecast: Above normal rains across central and southern areas with seasonal rains elsewhere. Temperatures are cool across the region, but any frost should remain south of the main producing areas. Lows so far this morning, Maria de fe, Minas Gerais 39F. ( 4 C.)  Machado , Mina Gerais 54F.( 12C.) Seasonal to slightly below seasonal temperatures are expected in the 6-10 day period as well, but readings should continue to be above frost levels in most locations. (MAXAR).

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20210517180926-12 Date

image-20210517180938-13 ICE

image-20210517180951-14Macro

image-20210517181000-15 Fundamental

Wednesday, June 16

 

US FOMC Statement /Projections

BR Interest rate decision

UK CPI

      PPI

China Industrial Production

 

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, June 17

 

EU CPI

US Philly Fed Indexes

      Jobless Claims

 

Friday , June 18

 

 

UK Retail sales

USDA 2021/22 estimates

CN basis report

Monday, June 21

 

 

US Chicago fed national activity

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, June 22

ICE July Arabica First notice day

US Existing home sales

UK Industrial trends orders

 

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, June 23

 

 

US Markit manufacturing / services / composite PMI

EU Markit manufacturing / services / composite PMI

UK Markit manufacturing / services / composite PMI

      New Home Sales     

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, June 24

 

UK BoE Interest rate decision

Brazil FGV Consumer confidence

US Durable goods orders

      GDP (Q1)

      Retail Inventories

      KC Fed composite index

 

Friday , June 25

ICE July Robusta First notice day

US PCE price index

      Michigan consumer sentiment

Brazil National Broad Consumer Price Index – 15

           FGV construction survey

CN basis report

Monday, June 28

 

US Dallas Fed mfg business index

Brazil FGV industry survey

           BCB focus market readout

 

 

Tuesday, June 29

 

US House price index

      S&P/Case-Schiller home price index

      CB consumer confidence

EU Business and consumer survey

Brazil PPI

           FGV services survey

China Manufacturing/ services / composite PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/- 3 days)

Wednesday, June 30

 

UK Buniness investment

EU CPI

US ADP Nonfarm employment change

      Pending home sales

      Chicago PMI

Brazil Budget balance

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI

CEPEA weekly coffee update

  • Planning Ahead in June

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NOAA ENSO update

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GCA june stocks

 

 

  • Coffee

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