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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - November 2-15

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​

 

  • Financial Results:

    • KDP- In coffee, retail dollar consumption of single-serve pods manufactured by KDP increased 4.0% in IRi tracked channels, led by higher pricing in both KDP owned and licensed and partner brands, with stronger growth registered in untracked channels.  KDP Manufactured share remained strong at 81.7% in the quarter.
    • Coca Cola- Hydration, sports, coffee and tea grew 5%. Hydration grew 6%, led by strong growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America. Coffee grew 5%, primarily driven by cycling the impact of pandemic-related Costa® retail store closures in the United Kingdom in the prior year and continued expansion of Costa® coffee across markets.
    • Caffe Nero- Caffè Nero, a UK-based coffee chain, has reported their sales for first quarter 2022, citing that home sales grew by 10% between June and September, reaching pre-covid levels.
    • Nestle- Sales in coffee grew at a high single-digit rate, with positive sales developments for Nescafé, Starbucks and Nespresso.
  • ICO: World coffee exports amounted to 9.95 million bags in September 2022, down 3% compared with 10.26 million in September 2021. Exports in the first 12 months of coffee year 2021/22 (October/21 to September/22) have decreased by 0.4% to 129.0 million bags compared with 129.5 million bags in the same period in 2020/21.
  • Sucden: Following a deficit of 11m bags in the 21/22 season, following a revision of the Guatemala crop as exports from this region have been strong; Sucden sees another deficit in 22/23 to the tune of 4.96m bags.
    • Sucden sees a 1.5% increase in global demand for 22/23, with consumption reaching 169.51m bags, up from 167.5m bags.
  • US Coffee Prices: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the cost of roast and ground coffee in major US cities averaged $5.53/lb in April, and increase of 16.4% from the average cost of $4.75 in April last year. This is also the highest price for a pound of coffee since June of 2013, according to the dataset.
  • Honduras: The country exported 42,850 bags of coffee in October, down 46.66% from the same month last year. October is the first month in the new October 2022 to September 2023 coffee year, during which, IHCafe has estimated that exports for the entirety of the coffee year will be 5.2 million bags, up 17.7% from the 4.7 million bags exported in 2021-2022.
  • Costa Rica: The country exported 9,591 bags in October, down 22.1% from the same month last year.Cumulative exports for the first ten months of the 2022 calendar year now total 984,540 bags, a decline of 9% from the first ten months in 2021.
  • Vietnam: The country exported 1.3 million bags of coffee in October, a 19.5% decline from the same month last year. This brought cumulative exports for the first ten months of the 2022 calendar year to 23.3 million bags, an increase of 10.6% from the same period last year.
  • Uganda: The country exported 503,695 60-kilo bags in September, a decline of 14.3% compared to the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 39,577 bags for the month, down 6.43% year on year; and Robusta exports totaled 464,118 bags, a decline of 14.72% from September 2021.
  • Japan: The latest data from the All Japan Coffee Association showed that green coffee stocks totaled 173,897 metric tons (2.9 60-kg bags) at the end of September. This represents a 3.3% decrease from the previous month when 179,796 tons were reported. However, this is 7.6% higher than the same month last year, when 161,566 tons were reported.
    image 53998
    All Japan Coffee Association (AJCA) 
 

image-20220201160050-5Brazil:

 

  • Sucden: Sucden sees this year's crop at 59m bags for the 22/23 crop. This is comprised of a split of 38m bags Arabica and 21m bags Conilon.
  • CEPEA: A healthy, widespread flowering has occurred, aiding the development and yield potential of the 2023-2024 Brazilian coffee crop. There have been some instances of abortion of flowering where the rains did not remain consistent, but this is in very isolated areas.
 

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: La Niña continues. In the tropical Pacific Ocean both atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are consistent with an established La Niña, including tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade wind strength, and equatorial cloudiness. Models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) early in 2023.

NOAA: There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

Moderate to heavy showers possible across the Eastern coffee areas in the next two days. After that, the forecasts shows only a chance of light rains in the coming two weeks.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20221102114651-1 Date

image-20221102114651-2 ICE

image-20221102114651-3Macro

image-20221102114651-4 Fundamental

Wednesday, November 2

 

Brazil closed for holiday

US ADP employment change
       Fed interest rate decision
China Caixin services/composite PMI

CEPEA weekly report

Colombia coffee exports (+/- 2 days) 

Thursday, November 3

 

Brazil IPC-Fipe inflation
UK S&P services/composite PMI

      BoE interest rate decision
EU Unemployment rate

US Challenger job cuts

       Balance of trade

       Non farm productivity

       Jobless claims

       S&P services/composite PMI

       ISM non manufacturing

Starbucks financial results

Friday, November 4

 

EU S&P composite/services PMI

      PPI

US Non farm payrolls

      Unemployment rate

Brazil S&P services/composite PMI

CN weekly basis report

Monday, November 7

 

US 2022 mid term elections

 

Tuesday, November 8

 

EU Retail sales

China Inflation rate

            PPI

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, November 9

 

Brazil Retail sales

 

IBGE Brazil crop forecast

CEPEA weekly report

Thursday, November 10

 

Brazil Inflation rate

US Inflation rate

      CPI

      Jobless claims

NOAA ENSO update

 

Sintercafe (Nov 10 & 11)

Friday, November 11

ICE December Arabica options expiry

UK GDP

       Good trade balance

       Industrial production

       Michigan consumer sentiment

Brazil Business confidence

CN weekly basis report

Monday, November 14

 

EU Industrial production

China Industrial production

            Retail sales

            Unemployment rate

Brazil CeCafe coffee exports (+/- 2 days) 

Tuesday, November 15

 

Brazil closed for holiday

UK Unemployment rate

EU Balance of trade

      GDP

      Employment change

      ZEW economic sentiment

US PPI

GCA stocks

 

 

Planning Ahead in November:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

16

 

17

 

18

19

20

 

21

 

ICE December Arabica first notice day

22

 

23

 

24

Arabica market closed

 

Robusta market early close at 18:30 UK (13:30 ET)  

 

ICE Europe November Robusta last trading day

25

Robusta market  

early close at 20:00 UK (15:00 ET)

26

27

28

 

29

30

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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