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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - October 15-31

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork Highlights

  • ICO: Upwardly revised their forecast for global coffee consumption for 2020 from 167.011 million bags to 167.258 million bags. As a result, their expectation for a supply surplus was revised from a 2.633 million bag surplus to a 2.386 million bag surplus. The ICO has not yet issued an official forecast for the 2021 coffee year, although many other firms have already estimated a deficit for the period.
  • US Imports: The US imported 99,823,340 kilograms of green Arabica coffee beans in August, up 3.7% from the 96,235,754 kilograms imported in the month prior. This brought cumulative imports for the first 8 months of the 2021 calendar yea to 756,554,966 kilograms. The most coffee was imported from Brazil in August, with 26,341,179 kilograms, followed by Colombia with 25,211,101 kilograms and Guatemala with 8,829,871 kilograms.
  • Eurostat: In 2020, the EU imported 2.9 million tonnes of coffee, up 7% compared with 2010 (2.7 million tonnes).
    • Most of the coffee imported in 2020 came from Brazil and Vietnam
    • These imports were mainly going into Germany and Italy
    • In 2020, over 1.9 million tonnes of coffee were produced in the EU, up 10% compared with 2010
    • Italy produced the most roasted coffee in 2020  followed by Germany
  • Costa Rica: The country’s exports totaled 70,470 bags in September, up 24.8% from the 56,448 bags exported in September 2020. This brought cumulative exports for the entirety of the October 2020 to September 2021 coffee year to 1,157,349 bags, 2% higher than the 1,134,960 bags exported in the 2019-2020 coffee year.
  • Honduras: Coffee exports as of September 30 totaled 5.87 million bags, an increase of 7% or 371,000 bags, year-on-year), generating $1,165 million in foreign exchange.
  • Uganda: The country’s coffee exports in September totaled 585,576 60-kilo bags, up 15.82% from the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 42,297 bags, down 30.48% and Robusta exports totaled 543,279 bags, up 22.16%.
  • Vietnam: Vietnam’s coffee exports for the month of September totaled 1,672,333 bags, down 10.2% from the previous month. This brought cumulative exports for the first nine months of the 2021 calendar year to 19.6 million bags, 5.4% lower than the same period last year.
  • Japan: Japanese warehouses totaled 163,652 tons (2.72 million bags) in August, down 0.5% from the 164,556 tons (2.74) registered in the month prior. This is also a decline of 8.3% from the 178,388 tons (2.97 million bags) recorded in August 2020.

image-20211015141825-1

  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 6,022,923 bags for the month ending September 30, which is 107,561 bags, or 1.8% lower than the previous month and 379,142 bags (5.9%) lower from September 2020. The five-year average for the month of September is 6,681,032 bags. September stocks have fallen an average of 124,000 bags over the last five years.

image-20211015141850-2

  • Certfified Stocks: ICE Arabica certified stocks totaled 1.92 million bags as of October 15th, up 71.4% from the 1.12 million bags registered at the same time last year. ICE Robusta certified stocks totaled 2 million bags as of October 15th, up 9.9% from the same time last year.

ICE Certified Arabica Stocks

 

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ICE Certified Robusta Stocks

 

image-20211015141921-4

Brazil:

  • IBGE: Brazil’s 2021-2022 coffee crop is now pegged at 48.1 million bags, down 1.6% from their forecast last month and representing a decline of 22.5% from the previous crop. Arabica is forecast at 33.3 million bags, down 3.1% from the previous month, and a decline of 31.8% compared to 2020. Conillon is forecast at 15.6 million bags, a growth of 8.0% compared to 2020.
  • CECAFE:
    • “It is still very premature to talk about coffee imports. We believe that, at the right time, the coffee sectors in Brazil will come together to seek to mitigate the problems that affect the supply of Brazilian coffee,” Marcos Matos, General Director of Cecafé, tells CoffeeNetwork in an interview.
    • Brazil exported 2.75 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in September, down 29.6% from the 3.9 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.42 million 60-kg bags, down 24.9% from the 3.23 million 60-kg bags exported in September 2020. Robusta exports totaled 326,045 60-kg bags, down 51.8% from the 676,325 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.

image-20211015142022-7

 

Weather update:

 

ENSO

BOM: The Bureau's ENSO Outlook has been raised to La Niña ALERT. Historically, when La Niña ALERT criteria have been met, La Niña has subsequently developed around 70% of the time. A 70% chance of an event is approximately triple the normal likelihood.

NOAA: La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022.

 

BRAZIL

Heavy and widespread rain is forecast for the coming days for most of the coffee belt. This is expected to trigger a widespread flowering of the developing 22-23 coffee crop and should help improve crop conditions and restore soil moisture content.

 

Looking Ahead:

 

image-20211015142143-8 Date

image-20211015142143-9 ICE

image-20211015142143-10Macro

image-20211015142143-11 Fundamental

Monday, October 18

 

Colombia closed for holiday

Brazil BCB focus market readout

US Industrial production

      Manufacturing production

 

Tuesday, October 19

 

 US Housing starts

 

Wednesday, October 20

ICE Europe November Robusta options expiry

UK Inflation data

       PPI

EU Inflation data

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, October 21

 

US Jobless claims

      Existing home sales

EU Consumer confidence flash

UK Gfk consumer confidence

 

Friday, October 22

 

UK Retail sales

      Markit Services / manufacturing

EU Markit services / manufacturing

US Markit services / manufacturing

CN basis report

Monday, October 25

 

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

 

Tuesday, October 26

ICE Europe November Robusta first notice day

Brazil IPCA mind month CPI

US S&P/Case-Schiller home price index

       CB consumer confidence

       New home sales

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, October 27

 

Brazil Unemployment rate

            Interest rate decision

US Durable goods orders

      Wholesale inventories

       Goods trade balance

Coca Cola financial results

 

CEPEA weekly coffee update

 

Thursday, October 28

 

EU Consumer confidence

       Economic sentiment

       ECB interest rate decision

US GDP

      Jobless claims

      Pending home sales

Starbucks financial results

Friday, October 29

 

 EU Inflation data

       GDP

US Personal income

      Personal spending

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN basis report

 

Planning Ahead in November

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

1

Change to opening time (Arabica) -  5:15 am NY time

2

Change to opening time (Arabica) -  5:15 am NY time

 

Brazil closed for holiday

3

Change to opening time (Arabica) -  5:15 am NY time

4

Change to opening time (Arabica) -  5:15 am NY time

5

Change to opening time (Arabica) -  5:15 am NY time

 

6

 

7

 

8

 

9

 

10

Sintercafe Virtual Presentation:  Economic Overview, Brown Brothers Harriman

11

IBGE coffee forecast

 

NOAA Enso update

12

ICE December Arabica options expiry

13

14

15

GCA Stocks

 

Brazil & Colombia closed for holiday

 

  • Coffee

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