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Bi-Weekly Coffee Report - September 15-30

By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA

Bi Weekly Coffee Report 
 
Alexis Rubinstein
Managing Editor

image-20220201160316-10CoffeeNetwork Highlights​​​​​​

  • USDA: The USDA has upwardly revised their forecast for imports of coffee and coffee products by $1.0 billion for FY 2022 to $9.0 billion on increased import volumes and unit values. Coffee and coffee product imports in FY 2023 are forecast at $10.0 billion.

    • In terms of volume, imports of coffee and coffee products in FY 2022 were forecast at 1.7 million metric tons and expected to remain unchanged in FY 2023.
  • Project Café: World Coffee Portal’s definitive report on the US branded coffee shop market, reveals the $45.8bn segment grew 10% over the last 12 months to regain 96% of pre-pandemic market value.
  • ECOM: Pegged global coffee production for the 2022-2023 coffee year at 165.1 million bags, down 2.1 million bags from their previous estimate. Demand is forecast at 169.7 million bags, leaving a deficit for the period of 4.6 million bags, 1.8 million bags higher than their previous estimate.
  • Colombia: Colombia produced 949,000 bags of 60-kg in August, up 4% from 915,000 bags in the same period last year. Exports in August totaled 872,000 bags, down 23%.
    • Truck drivers in Colombia are warning that they will strike if the Gustavo Petro administration increases fuel prices, threatening exports of coffee, cocoa, and all agricultural products.
  • Honduras: In August, 305,000 bags of coffee were exported, with a value of $ 87 million, 27% less compared to the 418,000 bags exported in August 2021. Sales as of August 31 totaled 4.74 million bags (down 18%, or 1.06 million bags, year-on-year), of which 4.59 million bags have been exported (19%, or 1.09 million bags lower year-on-year) with a value of $1,419 million.
  • StoneX: European roasters grapple with energy crisis, seeing their energy bills to run their roasters rise from anywhere between 10-40% as Russia significantly reduces flows.
  • GCA: Coffee stocks in warehouses in all ports of the United States totaled 6,450,086 bags for the month ending August 31st, which is 3.6% or 226,801 bags higher than the previous month and 5.2% or 319,602 bags higher from August 2021. The five-year average for August is 6,633,615 bags. August stocks have fallen an average of 15,000 bags over the last five years.
 
image 49532
GCA

image-20220201160050-5Brazil:

  • IBGE: Brazil’s IBGE has pegged the country’s total coffee production for the 2022 crop year at 53.7 million bags, an increase of 0.9% from the estimate issues last month and 9.6% higher from 2021. For Arabica coffee, the estimated production is 35.1 million bags, an increase of 9.7% compared to the previous year. For conillon, the estimated production is 18.6 million bags, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous month and 9.4% higher year on year.
  • ECOM: Brazil’s 2022-2023 crop was forecast at 61.9 million bags, an increase of 13.2% from the 54.7 million bags produced in the previous coffee year.
  • CEPEA: Prices for robusta coffee increased in Brazil remain firm. The demand for robusta increased because arabica prices have been high, leading agents from the industry to raise the share of robusta in blends.
  • CeCafe: Brazil exported 2.47 million 60-kg bags of green coffee in August, down 1.2% from the 3.24 million 60-kg bags exported during the same month last year. Arabica exports totaled 2.35 million 60-kg bags, up 10.6% from the 2.13 million 60-kg bags exported in August 2021. Robusta exports totaled 89,244 60-kg bags, plummeting 74.2% from the 345,711 60-kg bags exported in the same month last year.
    image 49531
    CeCafe 

image-20220201160122-7 Weather update:

image-20220201160102-6

ENSO

BOM: The Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) has been raised to LA NIÑA. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures have been cooling since June and are now at La Niña thresholds. Models indicate this La Niña event may peak during the spring and return to neutral conditions early in 2023.

NOAA: a Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023

image-20220201160050-5

BRAZIL

In the 6 to 10 day forecast, light to moderate rainfall is expected. More rainfall will be needed to trigger a widespread, healthy flowering.

 

Looking Ahead:

image-20220915141500-1 Date

image-20220915141500-2 ICE

image-20220915141500-3Macro

image-20220915141500-4 Fundamental

Friday, September 16

 

UK Retail sales

EU Inflation data

US Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

Monday, September 19

ICE Robusta market closed

 

ICE Arabica delayed opening (7:30am EST)

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, September 20

ICE September Arabica last trading day

US Housing starts

CONAB 3rd survey of 22-23 crop

 

Wednesday, September 21

 

US Existing home sales

      Fed interest rate decision

      FOMC economic projections

Brazil Interest rate decision

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, September 22

 

UK BoE interest rate decision

       Gfk consumer confidence

US Jobless claims

EU Consumer conflidence flash

 

Friday, September 23

 

EU S&P Global manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

UK S&P Global manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

US S&P Global manufacturing/
      services/composite PMI

Brazil FGV consumer confidence

CN weekly basis report

Monday, September 26

ICE Europe September Robusta last trading day

Brazil BCB focus market readout

 

Tuesday, September 27

 

Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI

US Durable goods

      New home sales

      S&P/Case-Schiller home price

BOM ENSO update

Wednesday, September 28

 

Brazil PPI

US Goods trade balance

      Wholesale inventories

CEPEA weekly coffee update

Thursday, September 29

 

EU Consumer confidence final

US GDP

      Jobless clais

China NBS manufacturing PMI

            Caixin manufacturing PMI

Vietnam coffee exports (+/-2 days)

Friday, September 30

 

UK GDP

EU Inflation rate

      Unemployment rate

Brazil Unemploymen rate

US Personal income/spending

      Michigan consumer sentiment

CN weekly basis report

Planning Ahead in October:

SUNDAY

MONDAY

TUESDAY

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

FRIDAY

SATURDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

 

3

 

4

 

5

 

6

IBGE coffee crop update

7

8

9

10

 

11

12

Brazil closed for holiday

13

NOAA ENSO update

14

15

 

 

 

 

 

  • Coffee

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