Daily Coffee Report 10/2/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Brazil's Coffee Exports Surge as Harvest Advances, Shifting Market Focus Toward the 2027 Crop
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Brazil's coffee exports have accelerated sharply in August, surpassing the total volume shipped during the entire month of August 2025 before the current month has even come to an end. The latest export data from Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (Secex) indicates that the flow of newly harvested coffee is finally reaching international markets after a weather-delayed start to the season.
According to Secex, Brazil exported approximately 153,800 metric tons of green coffee through August 24, already exceeding the 142,900 metric tons exported during all of August 2025. On a daily basis, shipments averaged 10,250 metric tons per working day, compared with 6,800 metric tons per day during the same month last year, representing growth of more than 50%.
The surge marks a significant shift for a market that spent much of the harvest season grappling with delays caused by persistent rainfall across key producing regions.
The strength of August exports becomes even more notable when viewed alongside the July shipment data released by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé).
According to Cecafé, Brazil exported 3.03 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee in July 2026, a 9.9% increase over July 2025. Green coffee exports totaled 2.67 million bags, up 8.7% year over year. Yet beneath the headline growth, the composition of exports revealed a market still dealing with harvest-related challenges.
Arabica exports fell 8.9% from a year earlier to 1.82 million bags, marking the lowest July arabica export volume since 2018. In contrast, robusta exports surged 84.4% to 851,235 bags, reflecting strong availability of conilon coffee and helping offset weaker arabica shipments. Processed coffee exports, including soluble coffee, rose 19.9% to approximately 360,000 bags.
The figures underscored a surprising reality: despite expectations for a large Brazilian crop, arabica exports remained constrained by delayed harvesting activity and ongoing logistical bottlenecks.
Cecafé attributed the weaker arabica performance largely to rainfall in important producing regions that slowed harvesting operations and delayed the movement of newly harvested coffee into export channels. Persistent infrastructure and port constraints also continued to affect shipment schedules.
The latest Secex figures suggest many of those delayed shipments are now beginning to reach export markets.
The contrast between July and August points to a market that was dealing more with timing issues than actual supply shortages. Coffee that remained on farms, in warehouses, or awaiting transportation during the wetter stages of the harvest season is now moving through the export chain as harvest progress exceeds 90% across most producing regions.
For traders and roasters, the stronger August pace offers confirmation that Brazil's larger crop is becoming increasingly visible in export statistics.
The recovery is particularly important because many market participants had expected export volumes to accelerate earlier in the season. Instead, weather delays temporarily limited arabica availability and contributed to ongoing tightness in nearby supplies.
The July data also highlights the growing divergence between arabica and robusta exports. While arabica shipments fell to their lowest July level in eight years, robusta exports reached 851,235 bags, one of the strongest performances on record for the month. The sharp rise reflects continued expansion in Brazil's conilon sector, which has become increasingly important to global buyers seeking robusta supplies for blends and soluble coffee production.
For the first seven months of 2026, Brazil exported 20.9 million bags of coffee, down 5.9% from the same period in 2025. Green coffee exports totaled 18.37 million bags, with arabica exports falling 16.6% year over year to 14.99 million bags, while robusta exports increased 73.5% to 3.39 million bags.
These figures suggest that while supply availability is improving, the recovery remains uneven across coffee categories.
Despite the acceleration in exports, questions remain regarding how aggressively Brazilian farmers will market the remainder of the crop. Many producers remain financially comfortable following several years of historically high coffee prices. Combined with the relatively strong Brazilian real for much of 2026, this has encouraged some growers to take a measured approach to sales rather than aggressively marketing inventories immediately following harvest.
Cecafé President Márcio Ferreira has noted that shipment volumes should continue improving as harvest activity winds down, but he also suggested that producer selling is likely to remain strategic rather than indiscriminate.
As a result, the market may continue to see periods where production appears plentiful on paper while physical availability remains somewhat tighter than expected.
With harvest activity largely complete, market attention is increasingly turning toward the next production cycle. The flowering period for Brazil's 2027 crop is now becoming the primary weather focus. Successful flowering is one of the most important stages in coffee production because it establishes yield potential for the following harvest.
The timing is particularly significant given growing discussion surrounding the possible development of El Niño conditions and their potential influence on rainfall and temperature patterns across major coffee-producing regions. Traders will be closely monitoring precipitation forecasts during the coming weeks as flowering progresses across Brazil's coffee belt.
The latest Secex and Cecafé figures together tell the story of a market transitioning from harvest uncertainty to export recovery. July's export data reflected the lingering effects of rainfall-delayed harvesting, logistical bottlenecks, and reduced arabica availability, with arabica exports falling to their lowest July level since 2018.
August tells a very different story. Exports have already exceeded the total volume shipped during August 2025, suggesting that the long-anticipated flow of Brazil's new crop is finally reaching international buyers.
Alexis Rubinstein
Sources: USDA, Secex, CeCafe
- Coffee
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