StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop to a record 181.6 million metric tons, an increase of 4 million tons from its previous estimate and 13 million tons above last season. The firm also projects a strong Brazilian corn crop at 135.5 million tons, just 4 million tons shy of the record. Together, these revisions reinforce expectations for abundant global grain and oilseed supplies and add to bearish supply-side pressure in world markets.
Mexico confirmed it has agreed with the United States on a technical water management plan, signaling cooperation on cross-border water issues. The agreement addresses a sensitive area tied to treaty obligations and agricultural water supply and helps ease near-term political and trade friction related to water access and management between the two countries.
Barkin said the policy rate is now at the upper end of estimates for neutral, noting recent economic data have been encouraging on demand, employment, and inflation, but he remains concerned about risks on both jobs and inflation. He said it is still unclear when inflation will return to 2% and expects only gradual progress, with inflation remaining above target for now. On employment, he cautioned that a period of no job growth would be uncomfortable even if the unemployment rate stays low, though firms report demand is holding up and are not conducting layoffs at scale. Barkin said he is open to discussing changes to the Fed’s balance sheet or other operations and added that while he does not know Kevin Warsh well, he appears capable and charismatic.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a government funding package today, ending the partial government shutdown. The vote occurred in the early afternoon, and the legislation now heads to President Donald Trump’s desk for signature. Passage clears near-term funding uncertainty and allows affected federal agencies to resume normal operations, removing a key source of political and market disruption.
ADM’s 2026 guidance highlights the gap between improving policy optics and near-term earnings reality. While soybean oil demand, biofuel policy under 45Z, and India trade alignment all point to a stronger medium-term outlook for crush, ADM is not yet underwriting a material, immediate expansion in margins, instead assuming flat year-over-year crush economics at the low end of guidance and only gradual improvement at the high end. This reinforces the idea that 2026 is a transition year: structural support for soybeans and soybean oil is building, but margin capture will be uneven and back-end loaded as new capacity comes online. For grains, it means downside risk is reduced by policy support, but upside in corn and soybeans is still likely to arrive incrementally rather than through a near-term step change in demand or pricing power.
Redbook data show U.S. retail sales remained strong through late January, with sales up 6.3% year over year for the first four weeks of the month and accelerating to a 6.7% gain in the week ending January 31. The consistency between the two readings suggests consumer spending momentum held firm rather than fading as the month progressed. While the figures are nominal and partly reflect higher prices, they still point to resilient demand at a time of elevated interest rates and tighter credit conditions. This reinforces the view that consumer spending continues to support overall economic growth and complicates the inflation outlook by reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy in the near term.
U.S. farmer sentiment declined in January, according to the latest Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer, reflecting ongoing financial and policy pressures across the farm sector. The reading suggests producers remain cautious about the year ahead amid weak commodity prices relative to costs, tight margins, high interest rates, and continued uncertainty around biofuel policy, trade, and input expenses. While balance sheets in some areas remain solid, the drop in sentiment points to restrained capital spending intentions and a more defensive posture as farmers head into 2026 planning decisions, reinforcing the broader theme of cautious optimism at best rather than a confident recovery.
The IRS released a detailed proposed rulemaking for the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit that lays out how clean transportation fuels will qualify for tax credits beginning in 2025, including eligibility rules, lifecycle emissions calculations, feedstock requirements, and registration and certification standards. The proposal confirms that fuels must meet strict greenhouse gas intensity thresholds, be produced at qualified U.S. facilities, and generally rely on feedstocks grown or produced in the U.S., Mexico, or Canada, with explicit rules to prevent double counting and stacking with other energy credits. For agriculture, the document is critical because it directly shapes demand for corn, soybeans, oilseeds, animal fats, and manure-based feedstocks used in ethanol, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel, while clarifying how emissions models, indirect land use change treatment, and feedstock sourcing affect credit values. While the proposal moves the market closer to regulatory clarity, the length, complexity, and continued comment process underscore why uncertainty around 45Z implementation has weighed on biofuel investment decisions, crush margins, and earnings across the ag and processing sectors.
Corn
S 1000 k 455 c 5 3/8 vs 434 1/4
B 600 kn _5 cso c 2
B 200 zz -20/-50 ps vs s even c 1db
B 200 z27 440 p vs s sd v 450/400 ps paying 13 1/2
B 100 z 460/550 cs vs s 415 p 9 5/8 db
B 200 k 430 straddles 25 1/8 to 25 1/4
B 400 z 470 c 23 1/4
B 200 z 460 c 26 5/8 to 27 1/8
S 100 j 425p/445c strangles 10 1/4
B 300 n 430/390 ps vs s k 430 p ½ db
S 100 k 430 straddles 25
S 500 k 455 c 5 ½ vs 434 ½
B 250 kn -15 cso p 2
On a block
B 500 k 455 c vs s k 415 p 1 ½ db vs 435 3/4
Beans
B 150 k27 1100/1050 ps vs s 1110 c 10 ¾ cr vs 1100 1/2
B 1000 n 1080 p 31 ½ to 31 5/8 vs 1030 1/4
B 200 j 1070/1030 ps vs s 1110 c 4 3/8 db
B 1000 h 1080 c 6 to 6 3/4
S 200 q 1220 c 10 7/8 to 10 3/4
B 450 u 1040 p vs s sd u 1050 p 3 db
B 1000 h 1070 c 11 vs 1068
B 500 k 1100/1160 cs 12 ¼ to 12 1/2
B 200 j 1070/1050 ps 7 ¼
S 2500 h 1080 c 7 1/8 to 7 vs 1068
B 100 nx +30 cso c 8
On a block
B 1250 k 1050/1020 ps vs s h 1050/1020 ps 3 7/8 db
Soymeal
S 250 k 275 p 1.55
S 400 h 305 c .80
S 500 h 295 c 2.65 to 2.55
S 150 k 325 c 2.55
B 400 h 295/303 cs 2.05
B 500 h 300 c 1.90 to 2.00
B 200 k 315 c 4.15 vs 297.4
Bean oil
B 2000 k 60/70 cs .995 to 1.010 vs 5490
B 1000 k 56/61 cs 1.345 vs 5485
B 500 h 5350/52 ps .440
S 1000 n 65 c 1.135 to 1.120
S 1000 h 57 c .460 to .370
S 500 k 55/6250 cs 1.970
B 1500 k 62 c .830 to .880
S 1000 k 58 c 1.750
S 500 n 54/60 cs 2.090 vs 5527
S 250 h 56 c vs b 500 h 58 c .135 cr
B 500 k 55/62 cs 2.970
B 150 n 65 c 1.113
S 1450 n 5250/4550 ps and n 5950/7250 cs collecting 3.600
S 500 k 60/65 cs .745 to .725 vs 5490
S 200 h 5550 c .730
S 200 n 65 c 1.120
B 1000 j 4750 p .200 to .205
B 300 n 65 c 1.135
B 500 n 65 c 1.195
S 1000 h 50 p .145
B 1000 h 60 c .150
S 500 h 54 c 1.620 to 1.600
B 150 h 5225 p .440 vs 5460
S 175 h 54 c vs b 525 h 56 c .695 cr
S 2000 k 55 c vs 5518 against b 2000 h 55 c vs 5464 collecting 1.820
S 500 k 54/58 cs 1.490 to 1.465
B 800 h 53/50 ps .600 vs 5470
B 1000 k 57/61 cs vs s k 49 p .410 to .450 db
B 400 h 55/58 cs vs s 53 p .200 db
On a block
B 1000 n 65 c 1.180 to 1.185
S 1000 n 65 c 1.040
S 500 n 65 c 1.120
Wheat
S 500 h 540 p 6 1/8
S 300 h 520 p 6 5/8
S 1000 k 510 p 9 5/8 vs 537 1/2
S 1000 h 545 c 5 ¼ to 4
On a block
S 300 k 500 p 6 ½ vs 537 3/4
Kc wheat
B 150 h 520 p 4 1/2
S 400 j 540 c 19 ½ to 19 1/4
B 100 u 1200 c 1 1/4
Crush options
S 100 dec 214 c 9
S 100 k 200 c 7
B 100 dec 220 c 9 1/2
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
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