The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) has withdrawn from the Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement that bans the purchase of soybeans grown on land deforested after 2008. The move weakens the moratorium and reflects a broader pushback by farmers against corporate environmental rules that go beyond Brazilian law, with producers arguing they will not accept private restrictions stricter than national legislation. Government officials and environmental groups warn the withdrawal will make it harder for Brazil to meet its goal of zero deforestation by 2030. The decision follows growing criticism of the moratorium, including a new Mato Grosso state law that removed tax incentives for companies that comply with it. With ABIOVE’s exit, major global agricultural traders are expected to stop following the moratorium’s provisions, while farm groups have framed the decision as a victory for soybean producers and an end to what they call “private impositions,” even as individual companies may continue applying environmental requirements on their own.
The European Union is offering additional financial support to farmers in an effort to ease opposition to its long-delayed trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur. The European Commission said it will tweak its 2028–2034 budget proposal to allow farmers early access to roughly €45 billion, responding to criticism from agricultural groups worried about increased competition from cheaper South American imports, especially from Brazil. Brussels hopes to finalize the deal next week, which would create the world’s largest free-trade area between the EU and Mercosur members Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. European farmers fear being undercut by imports and have also protested planned changes to EU farm subsidies that critics say could result in lower payments. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the proposed budget changes are intended to provide unprecedented support for farmers and rural communities as the bloc works to push the agreement over the finish line.
The U.S. Supreme Court signaled that a ruling on President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could come as soon as Friday, as the justices return from a month-long recess and resume issuing opinions. The case challenges Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, which imposed duties of roughly 10% to 50% on most imports and additional levies on Canada, Mexico, and China under a 1977 emergency powers law tied to fentanyl trafficking. During November arguments, the justices appeared skeptical of the president’s authority to impose the tariffs under that statute. A decision against Trump would undercut a central element of his economic policy agenda and represent his most significant legal defeat since returning to the White House.
U.S. December PMI data showed modest downside revisions but remained firmly in expansion territory. Services PMI was finalized at 52.5, slightly below the 52.9 preliminary reading, while the Composite PMI was revised down to 52.7 from 53.0. The data still point to steady late-year economic momentum, led by services, but with a touch less strength than initially estimated. In market terms, this is a mildly dovish-at-the-margin signal—growth is holding up, but not accelerating—supporting the narrative of cooling but resilient activity rather than overheating. That backdrop is consistent with stable risk appetite, contained rate pressures, and a Fed that can afford to stay patient rather than lean more restrictive.
U.S. farmer sentiment weakened in December, with Purdue University’s Agriculture Economy Barometer falling to 136, reflecting a more cautious outlook among producers. The decline points to growing concern over profitability and the near-term farm economy, likely tied to pressure from lower commodity prices, high input costs, and ongoing uncertainty around trade, interest rates, and policy. While the index remains above the most pessimistic levels seen during prior downturns, the December drop signals that farmers entered 2026 with softer confidence and heightened sensitivity to margins and balance-sheet risk.
CME Group announced that starting with the May 2026 Hard Red Spring Wheat futures contract, only wheat with a minimum of 13.5% protein will be deliverable, eliminating 13.0% protein wheat from eligibility. To address existing shipping certificates marked at 13.0% protein, CME outlined an upgrade process allowing holders to convert them to 13.5% protein so they remain deliverable. While the original process relied on USDA daily price reports to set a market-based upgrade cost, USDA is currently not reporting those prices for the Chicago market. If USDA does not resume reporting before the rule takes effect, CME will apply a fallback upgrade charge capped at 10 cents per bushel, reflecting the existing protein differential in the rulebook. The changes become effective January 22, 2026, pending CFTC review, and there were no outstanding HRS shipping certificates as of the end of the December 2025 delivery period.
U.S. officials said President Trump has presented a list of demands to Venezuela’s new leadership, including cracking down on drug trafficking, expelling Iranian, Cuban, and other hostile foreign operatives, and halting oil sales to U.S. adversaries. Trump said Venezuela must be stabilized before elections can be held and described acting President Rodriguez as cooperative, while adviser Stephen Miller said Venezuela is working with Washington and would require U.S. approval for any commercial activity. The administration has also floated subsidizing oil companies to help rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure and indicated Trump would not need congressional approval to redeploy U.S. troops there if necessary. Separately, the CIA reportedly assessed that loyalists from the Maduro regime were best positioned to lead the country after Maduro’s removal.
The PBoC signaled a steady, supportive policy stance following its January 5–6 meeting, emphasizing measured easing rather than aggressive stimulus. Officials said they will better coordinate new and existing policy tools, step up counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and work to expand domestic demand while managing risks in key sectors. The central bank pledged to keep liquidity ample, retain flexibility to cut reserve requirements and interest rates if needed, and keep the yuan basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It also vowed to strengthen guidance to market expectations, enhance supervision of the bond and gold markets, and boost overall market confidence.
Corn
B 4000 g 443 p 5 ¼ to 5 5/8
S 500 u 435p/490c strangles 34 3/4
S 500 g 440 p 4 1/2
B 100 g 450 c vs s 600 g 470 c even
S 200 sd k 460p/465c strangles 24 1/2
S 1500 h 465 c 3 5/8 vs 444
B 150 g 445/425 ps vs s 470 c 1 1/4
S 1000 h 465 c 3 5/8 vs 444
B 200 z27 440 p 22
S 150 z 410 p 8 ½ vs 463 1/2
B 125 z 460 p 29 5/8 vs 463
S 200 n 480 c 15 1/8
B 400 z 470 c vs s z 430 p 13 ¾ vs 463 1/2
B 4000 g 450 c 5 to 5 3/8
S 200 g 435 p 3
B 250 w3 new crop 475 c 1 1/4
B 2000 g 415 p 3/8
S 250 h 450 c 9
S 100 g 440p/450c 9 5/8
B 400 h 450 c vs s g 450 c 3 3/8 db
B 2000 g 420 p 5/8
Beans
B 2500 n 1300 c 4 3/4
S 1000 g 1020 p 1 1/8 vs 1067
B 1000 h 1080/1120 cs 9 5/8 vs 1066
B 2000 h 1040 p 9 ½ to 10 1/4
S 2600 n 1100/1000 ps 38 5/8 to 38 3/8
B 500 w2 1058 p vs s 1000 w2 1050 p 1 1/8 db
S 500 h 1080 c 13 1/2
B 500 h 1050 p 15 to 15 1/2
B 750 g 1060 p vs s 1500 g 1040 p 2 3/8
B 300 x 1060 c 52 ½ vs 1074 ¾
B 2000 g 1060 p 9 ½ to 10
S 500 h 1080 c 14 3/4
S 2700 n 1100/1000 ps vs b n 1250 c 31 to 30 3/8 cr
S 1000 h 1120 c 5
B 500 h 1080 c 15 1/8
S 700 n 1200 c 12 1/8
B 500 w2 1060/1050 ps 2
B 500 h 1030 p 6 3/4
B 200 h 1050 p 10 3/8 to 10 1/2
B 500 w2 1060 p vs s 1000 w2 1050 p 1 ½ db
S 500 h 1080 c 14 3/4
On a block
S 300 k 1080 c 30 5/8 vs 1078
Soymeal
S 2000 h 330 c .75
B 700 h 285 p vs s g 290 p .80 db
S 200 h 300 p 7.40 to 7.25
S 500 g 305/310 cs 1.15 to 1.05
S 500 g 307 c 1.65
On a block
B 555 n 315/350 cs vs s 280 p 4.95 db
Bean oil
B 100 k 53/58 cs vs s 46 p .040 db
B 250 h 52 c .810 vs 4958
B 500 k 4950/5050/56 skinny call fly 1.550 vs 5046
B 150 w2 4950 c .880
B 100 h 44 p .105
B 300 h 50 c 1.610 to 1.690
B 100 q 48/43 ps vs s 58 c .070 db vs 5070
B 125 u 48/43 ps vs s 58 c .060 db vs 5055
S 300 g 50 c .770 to .760
B 750 n 51 c 3.170 vs 5080
B 2200 k 54/58 cs .715 vs 5045
B 250 h 50/5150 cs vs s 49 p .650 to .645
S 500 g 5075 c .650 to .640
On a block
B 1000 k 54/58 cs .715 vs 5045
Wheat
B 100 w2 510 p 2 7/8
S 100 n 530/480 ps 21 1/4
B 300 h 530 straddles vs s h 510p/550c strangles 16 7/8 db
B 200 h 520 c 13 1/4
B 200 h 490 p 6
B 500 n 535 p 36 1/8 vs 535
S 500 h 490 p 5 3/4
S 400 u 520/440 ps and 400 u 605/775 cs 42 ½ cr
B 200 h 530 c 9 1/2
Kc wheat
B 200 h 555 c 6 1/2
sources:
news bloomberg
options data globex
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