Brazil’s agricultural sector remains bullish as the EU–Mercosur trade deal moves toward formal signing, ending more than two decades of negotiations and setting the stage for gradual tariff reductions across a wide range of products. Brazilian agribusiness groups expect the agreement to significantly expand export opportunities—particularly for coffee, fruit, and other value-added goods—while reinforcing Brazil’s position as a major global food and energy supplier. Although EU safeguards and quotas on sensitive items like beef may cap some gains, officials stress that the commercial portions of the deal could take effect quickly after signing, making it a historic and economically meaningful win for Brazilian agriculture.
China is signaling it is willing to ease restrictions on Canadian canola imports if Canada lowers its tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, effectively tying agricultural market access to industrial trade policy. The move highlights Beijing’s use of canola as leverage, given China’s importance as a swing buyer for Canadian oilseeds, and suggests potential relief from informal import barriers such as slowdowns or heightened inspections. Even partial normalization would be supportive for Canadian canola exports and pricing, while underscoring how agricultural commodities are increasingly being used as bargaining chips in broader geopolitical and trade negotiations.
Federal Reserve official Musalem said the U.S. economy remains “pretty robust,” with growth expected to run above its long-term potential, while the labor market appears set to stabilize near current levels. He characterized the latest jobs report as solid, reinforcing the view that economic momentum remains intact even as conditions cool modestly. Overall, his comments suggest confidence in underlying economic strength and resilience rather than concern about an imminent slowdown.
BofA, Wells Fargo and Citi all report earnings tomorrow.
Corn
B 2200 j 410 p 3 3/8 vs 430
B 2000 k 410 p 5 ½ vs 430
B 2000 h 410 p 3 ¼ vs 421 1/2
B 1500 h 420 c 8 ½ to 8 5/8 vs 421 3/4
B 2000 k 430 c 14 1/2
B 3000 k 430 p 14
B 2500 z 410 p 11 ½ to 11 5/8
B 3000 n 440 straddles vs s 3000 n 460 straddles 6 ½ cr vs 438
B 3000 h 435 c 5 ½ to 5 5/8
S 100 short dec 460 straddles 39 to 38 3/4
S 2500 h 435/480 cs 2 5/8 to 2 ½ vs 420 3/4
S 5000 h 450 c 1 ½ to 1 1/4
B 2000 g 450 c 1/4
S 1500 g 435 c 1 ½ to 1
S 1500 g 420 c 5 1/4
S 1000 g 425 c 3
S 2000 h 430 p 14
S 500 h 425 c 5 7/8
S 1000 k 440 c 9 5/8 to 8 7/8
B 1000 h 430/470 cs 3 5/8 vs 421
B 1500 h 430 p 14
B 4000 g 410 p 1 to 1 1/2
B 100 z 470 straddles 63
S 400 z 470 c 20
S 5000 n 375 p 1 5/8
B 5000 h 430/405 ps 10 1/8 vs 423
S 500 k 430 p 13 7/8
S 1000 z 500 c 13 ½ to 13 3/8
B 200 sd k 470 c vs s sd k 430 p 1 db vs 448 1/2
B 150 z 430p/500c strangles 32 1/2
S 800 k 430 straddles 28 3/8 to 27 7/8
B 1000 g 435 p 14 1/4
B 1000 h 450 p 30
B 2000 h 440 p 22 1/2
B 1000 g 445 p 27
B 1000 h 435 p 19 3/8
B 2000 h 445 p 28 to 28 3/8
B 500 h 420/410 ps 4 1/4
S 4000 g 420 p 5 1/8 to 3 5/8
S 2000 h 415 p 5 3/8 to 5 1/4
S 1000 h 475 c ½
B 1500 h 425 c 5 ¼ to 6 1/4
B 1750 k 425/445 cs 7 1/8 to 7 5/8
S 1000 h 425 c 5
S 2000 h 450 c 1 1/4
S 450 z 460 c 24 ½ to 24 1/4
B 1000 h 440 c 2 1/2
B 100 sd m 465 c 9
B 600 n 405 p 6 ¼ to 6 3/8
B 700 u 395 p 7 5/8
B 200 z 450 c 28
S 200 z 430 p 18 ¾ to 18 5/8
Beans
B 1000 n 1100/1200 cs 18 7/8 vs 1072
S 500 h 1080 c 4 1/2
S 150 k 1050 c 29
B 100 k 1100 p 59 3/8
B 1100 k 1040 c vs s j 1040 c 4 5/8 db vs 1056 1/2
B 250 u 1160 c, 1280 c, 980 p and 920 p paying 48 vs 1057 3/4
S 500 j 1060 c 22 3/8 to 22
S 200 k 970 p 3 1/4
B 500 g 1030 p 4 1/4
S 600 sd n 1060 p 33 to 30 1/2
S 1000 k 1120 c 8 1/4
B 200 k 1070/1170 cs 18 1/8 vs 1057
B 1750 w3 1050 c vs s 3500 w3 1064 c 2 to 2 ¼ db
B 500 h 1030/990 ps 9 1/8
B 2000 n 1200 c 8 to 8 1/4
B 2000 h 1010 p 5 1/8 to 5 3/4
B 200 n 1070 p 38 1/2
B 650 g 1050 p 13 1/8 vs 1043 1/4
S 1000 h 1020 p 7 1/2
S 600 k 1060 straddles 56 ¾ to 56
Soymeal
B 1500 g 305 c .40 to .50
B 400 h 300 c 3.00 to 3.10
B 100 n 305/335 cs 7.65 vs 302.7
S 1500 g 295 c 2.50 to 2.45
B 500 g 300 c 1.00
S 1000 h 300 p vs b 2000 h 290 p 1.70 to 1.60 cr vs 295.5
B 500 g 305 c .50
B 500 g 310 c .30
Bean oil
B 150 z 60 c 1.980
B 500 k 55/65 cs 1.520 vs 5193
B 1000 k 52/56/59 call tree .060
B 250 k 55 c 2.020 vs 5192
S 250 z 45 p 1.665 to 1.630
B 2000 h 60/65 cs .125 to .135
B 1000 h 51 c 1.960 vs 5135
S 500 h 48 p .480
B 500 k 60/65 cs .485
B 500 k 47/45 ps .410
B 250 h 55/60 cs .485
B 500 h 54/58 cs .595
S 500 g 51 c 1.200
B 400 h 53 c vs s 800 h 55 c .295 cr
B 1500 k 58 c vs s k 49/46 ps .390 db vs 5189
B 1000 k 55/60 cs .980 to .985 vs 5185
B 200 h 55/60 cs vs s h 48/47 ps .250 db
B 1000 k 55/65 cs 1.290 vs 5127
S 800 k 58 c 1.200 vs 5175
B 1000 h 51 c 1.960 vs 5135
On a block
B 9762 k 60/65 cs .490
B 250 k 59 c 1.015
Wheat
S 700 h 490 p 4 ¾ to 4 1/2
B 200 j 540 c vs s 600 j 585 c ½ cr
B 200 h 535/570 cs 4 1/2
S 500 h 565 c 2 1/8 to 2
B 200 n 550/600/650/700 call condor 9 1/2
Kc wheat
B 200 h 530/550 cs 8
S 400 h 540 c 9 to 7 1/8
B 200 h 560 c vs s 500 p 1 ½ db vs 528
Rough rice
B 100 g 1000 p vs s 1100 c even
| Corn | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| C G6 | 419.75 | -1.75 | 420 | 15.7 | -4.30 | 5.50 | 4.15 | 6.37 | 24.11 | 10 |
| C H6 | 419.75 | -1.75 | 420 | 14.4 | -2.50 | 5.50 | 3.81 | 6.37 | 24.11 | 38 |
| C J6 | 427.75 | -2.75 | 430 | 14.5 | -1.80 | 5.00 | 3.91 | 6.15 | 22.81 | 73 |
| C K6 | 427.75 | -2.75 | 430 | 15.5 | -1.60 | 5.00 | 4.18 | 6.15 | 22.81 | 101 |
| C N6 | 434.50 | -3.50 | 435 | 16.9 | -1.40 | 4.75 | 4.63 | 5.91 | 21.60 | 164 |
| C U6 | 433.25 | -5.50 | 435 | 19.3 | -1.10 | 5.50 | 5.27 | 4.34 | 15.90 | 220 |
| Beans | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| S G6 | 1038.75 | -10.25 | 1040 | 13.9 | -1.70 | 14.50 | 9.10 | 8.46 | 12.93 | 10 |
| S H6 | 1038.75 | -10.25 | 1040 | 13.1 | -1.00 | 14.50 | 8.57 | 8.46 | 12.93 | 38 |
| S J6 | 1052.00 | -9.75 | 1050 | 12.4 | -1.00 | 13.75 | 8.22 | 8.30 | 12.53 | 73 |
| S K6 | 1052.00 | -9.75 | 1050 | 12.9 | -0.90 | 13.75 | 8.55 | 8.30 | 12.53 | 101 |
| S N6 | 1066.00 | -9.50 | 1070 | 13.7 | -0.70 | 13.50 | 9.20 | 7.87 | 11.72 | 164 |
| | | | | | | | | | | |
| SRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| W G6 | 510.50 | -0.75 | 510 | 18.3 | -4.10 | 6.75 | 5.88 | 4.71 | 14.64 | 10 |
| W H6 | 510.50 | -0.75 | 510 | 21.3 | -1.80 | 6.75 | 6.85 | 4.71 | 14.64 | 38 |
| W J6 | 521.75 | -1.00 | 520 | 22.6 | -1.40 | 6.00 | 7.43 | 4.34 | 13.20 | 73 |
| W K6 | 521.75 | -1.00 | 520 | 23.5 | -0.80 | 6.00 | 7.72 | 4.34 | 13.20 | 101 |
| W N6 | 534.50 | -1.25 | 535 | 25.0 | -0.60 | 5.75 | 8.42 | 4.08 | 12.10 | 164 |
| HRW Wheat | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| KWG6 | 519.50 | -7.25 | 520 | 19.4 | -3.90 | 8.50 | 6.35 | 5.79 | 17.68 | 10 |
| KWH6 | 519.50 | -7.25 | 520 | 22.0 | -2.00 | 8.50 | 7.20 | 5.79 | 17.68 | 38 |
| KWJ6 | 531.25 | -6.75 | 530 | 23.6 | -1.50 | 7.50 | 7.90 | 5.63 | 16.81 | 73 |
| KWK6 | 531.25 | -6.75 | 530 | 24.2 | -1.10 | 7.50 | 8.10 | 5.63 | 16.81 | 101 |
| KWN6 | 544.75 | -6.75 | 545 | 25.3 | -0.90 | 7.50 | 8.68 | 5.40 | 15.74 | 164 |
| Bean Oil | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| BOG6 | 51.20 | 0.93 | 51 | 23.3 | 2.20 | 1.45 | 0.75 | 0.59 | 18.25 | 10 |
| BOH6 | 51.20 | 0.93 | 51 | 25.1 | 1.40 | 1.45 | 0.81 | 0.59 | 18.25 | 38 |
| BOK6 | 51.69 | 0.92 | 51.5 | 26.1 | 1.30 | 1.43 | 0.85 | 0.58 | 17.75 | 101 |
| BON6 | 52.00 | 0.90 | 52 | 25.4 | 1.00 | 1.42 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 17.10 | 164 |
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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