The 12,000 May 60/65 call spread bought in bean oil yesterday was new.
Indonesia plans to raise export levies on refined palm oil by about 2.5 percentage points, according to the head of its palm oil estate fund, as the government looks to shore up funding for its expanding biodiesel program. The levy hike is aimed at replenishing thinning reserves used to subsidize higher biofuel blends, including the current B40 mandate and planned moves toward B50. Higher levies would lift export costs for refined palm oil products, potentially providing modest support to global palm oil prices, while reinforcing Indonesia’s domestic biofuel policy objectives and reshaping trade flows for vegetable oils.
China has raised the margin financing deposit ratio to 100% from 80%, tightening leverage conditions in the equity market. The move effectively requires investors to fully fund margin trades with their own capital, reducing speculative borrowing and signaling a more cautious regulatory stance toward market risk and volatility.
President Trump’s latest threat to impose a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran risks undermining the one-year U.S.–China trade truce, given China’s role as the largest buyer of Iranian oil. The tariff, announced as “effective immediately,” lacks clarity on scope, enforcement, and whether it would be layered on top of existing duties or include exemptions for China, raising uncertainty for markets and trade partners. Chinese officials warned that failure by the U.S. to honor its trade commitments would justify retaliation, with Beijing characterizing the move as coercive and vowing to protect its economic interests. The escalation adds fresh strain to U.S.–China relations and raises the risk that broader geopolitical and sanctions-related disputes spill over into renewed trade conflict.
China’s December trade data came in stronger than expected, with exports rising 6.6% year over year versus expectations of 3%, reflecting resilient external demand. Imports also surprised the upside, increasing 5.7% year over year compared with forecasts near 1%, signaling firmer domestic demand than markets had anticipated. The trade surplus totaled 808.8 billion yuan, slightly below expectations but still elevated, underscoring solid overall trade performance. In yuan-denominated terms, exports grew 6.1% year over year, while imports rose a more modest 0.5%, pointing to continued strength on the export side even as import growth lagged in local-currency terms.
Chinese transshipments to the United States via Vietnam have reached a new record high, highlighting growing efforts by Chinese exporters to route goods through third countries to mitigate U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions. The surge underscores Vietnam’s expanding role as a manufacturing and logistics hub for China-linked supply chains, while raising the risk of closer scrutiny by U.S. trade authorities over origin rules and tariff circumvention. This trend reflects persistent trade tensions and suggests continued pressure on enforcement, trade policy, and bilateral negotiations involving China, Vietnam, and the United States.
The World Bank upgraded its 2026 growth outlook for China but lowered its forecast for global growth year over year, citing the drag from tariffs and trade frictions that are expected to weigh on cross-border trade and overall economic momentum.
December U.S. data showed inflation continuing to cool without signs of reacceleration, reinforcing a soft-landing narrative. Headline CPI rose 0.3% month over month, in line with expectations, while core inflation increased just 0.2%, undershooting forecasts; year-over-year headline inflation held at 2.7% and core at 2.6%, with supercore inflation unchanged at 2.7%. Fiscal results were slightly better than expected, with the December budget deficit narrowing to $145 billion. Housing data was mixed but resilient, as new home sales beat expectations despite softer building permits. Consumer and labor indicators pointed to gradual cooling rather than contraction, with slower retail sales growth, modest weekly job gains, and small business optimism holding steady.
US President Donald Trump said that while Canada wants the USMCA, the United States does not need the agreement, underscoring a hardline posture toward the trade pact and reinforcing U.S. leverage ahead of the 2026 review.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 300 h 435 c 3 ¼ vs 423
B 850 h 460 c 7/8
B 1000 h 420 p 6 5/8
S 1300 h 430 c 4 1/8 to 4
S 1300 h 420 p 9 ¼ to 8 3/4
S 1000 h 425 c 5 5/8
B 1000 h 425 p 10
B 1000 h 415 p 5
Beans
B 250 k 1070 c 7 ½ to 7 5/8
S 100 x 1190 c 19
Soymeal
S 250 h 310/300 ps 8.20 to 8.15
Bean oil
S 300 h 54/57 cs .470 to .465
Open interest changes
Corn
April 410 put buy, may 410 put buy, march 410 put buy, may 430 call buy, july 440 straddle buy, march 435 call buy, july 375 put sale, march 430/405 put spread buy, feb 410 put buy and feb 420 put sales were new.....may 430 put buy, dec 410 put buy and march 450 call sales were closing....
Beans
July1100/1200 call spread buy and march 1010 put buys were new
Soymeal
Feb 305 call buy and march 300 put sales were closing....feb 295 call sale and march 290 put buys were new
Bean oil
May 60/65 call spreads buy , may 55/65 call spread buy and may 49/46 put spread sales were new....may 58 call buy was closing
Lean hogs
Feb 80 put sale was closing
Live cattle
Feb 238/234 put spread buy was rolling a long....june 250 call buy was new
Cvol
Ags 17.33% down .39%
Corn 15.65% down .94%
Beans 13.88% down .40%
Soymeal 18.12% up .37%
Bean oil 28.14% up 1.19%
Wheat 20.52% down 1.14%
Feeder cattle 18.83% down .06%
Live cattle 15.95% down .54%
Lean hogs 22.44% down .49%
Class 3 milk 15.55% down .15%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg
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