ag options recap from 1/15
U.S. December NOPA soybean crush totaled 224.99 million bushels, slightly above the Bloomberg survey average of 223.5 mbu and well above last year’s 206.6 mbu, confirming continued strong processing demand despite seasonal slowdown from October’s record pace. The bigger surprise came on the byproduct side, with soybean oil stocks rising to 1.642 billion pounds, above expectations (1.609 bln) and sharply higher than 1.236 bln pounds a year ago, reinforcing the narrative that oil production is outrunning near-term demand. The combination underscores a structurally strong crush pipeline but also explains why soybean oil remains vulnerable to pressure unless policy-driven demand (45Z/RFS clarity) accelerates, while
meal must stay priced attractively to clear growing supplies.
Canada and China—both of which run large trade surpluses with the United States—are moving to deepen bilateral energy and investment ties as Canada looks to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market. The two countries expanding cooperation on oil, gas, nuclear, clean technology, and agriculture, with Canada actively courting Chinese capital and export demand. The timing underscores how U.S. tariffs and trade pressure are pushing surplus countries to diversify away from the U.S. and accelerate alternative trade relationships, turning policy friction with Washington into a catalyst for new cross-border deals elsewhere.
Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. announced it will invest $1.3 billion in Mexico through 2030 to expand its poultry operations, increasing production capacity by about 38% and helping Mexico reduce chicken imports by roughly 35%. The investment will be spread across several states, with the largest portion going to Veracruz and Yucatán, followed by Durango and Coahuila, and additional spending in Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Hidalgo. Company executives and Mexican officials said the move underscores strong foreign investment momentum in Mexico and reflects Pilgrim’s long-term commitment to building out local production and supply chains.
The Trump administration is signaling a large 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation, with biomass-based diesel volumes reportedly being weighed in the 5.2–5.6 billion gallon range and final rules expected by early March. While headline volumes look supportive, the key policy message is that used cooking oil and tallow will remain fully eligible feedstocks, and plans to penalize imports are likely being dropped. That approach prioritizes fuel supply certainty and execution over feedstock restriction, limiting incremental soybean oil demand and capping upside for soy oil relative to waste fats. The outcome is broadly supportive for renewable diesel producers and RIN stability, constructive but not explosive for soybean crush, and structurally less bullish than prior scenarios that relied on tightening feedstock eligibility.
Corn
S 350 u 500 c 8 1/4
S 1500 h 460 c 1/2
S 200 sd k 460 p 20
B 200 n 420 p 11 5/8
B 500 w5 420 straddles 9 to 9 1/8
S 3000 h 450 c 1 5/8 to 1
B 100 sd v 480/530 cs 8 1/2
S 500 z 500 c 13
S 150 z 460 c 23 1/2
S 1000 h 425 5 3/8 to 5 1/4
B 350 z 420/400 ps 6 5/8
B 2000 h 430/440 cs 2 1/8
S 3000 g 443 p 21
B 300 h 425 p 8 ¼
S 500 h 450 c 1 vs 422 1/4
B 4000 h 430/440/450 call flies 1 1/4
B 500 h 425/435 cs 3
B 200 z27 440 p 23 1/2
S 200 h 420 straddles 14 1/8
B 150 k 405 p 3 7/8
S 350 n 450/480 cs 7 1/8
S 200 h 420 c 14 1/4
Beans
S 750 n 1120 c 23 to 22 5/8
B 1000 g 1040 p 2 5/8
B 500 k 1140 c vs s k 1020 p 3 ¼ vs vs 1063 3/4
B 600 h 1040/1020 ps 5 7/8
S 2500 g 1060 p 11 ½ to 10 1/8
B 1000 x 1200 c 18 ½ vs 1066 1/2
S 1000 x 1100 c 39
B 400 h 1040 straddles 35 3/4
S 2500 sd j 1070 c 17 ¼ to 16
S 500 k 1070 c 26 1/2
B 800 k 1020 p 10 1/8 vs 1068
B 500 k 1070 c 27
B 250 n 1080 p 40 1/2
S 1500 h 1050/1020 ps 9 ½ vs 1055
B 1000 h 1060 c vs 1052 ¼ against s 1000 j 1160 c vs 1064 ¼ paying 10 3/4
B 500 n 1080 c 31
B 100 n 1110/1130 cs 5 7/8
B 250 k 1080/1100/1180/1200 call condor 5 5/8
S 1000 g 1030 p 1 3/4
S 2000 g 1060 p 14 ¾ to 11 1/2
S 750 x 1100 c vs b n 1120 c 16 ¾ cr
S 750 h 1060 c 13 1/8 vs 1052
B 1000 h 1000 p 2
S 300 h 1100 c 4 1/8
S 200 h 1080 c 7 1/4
Soymeal
S 300 n 300/295 ps 2.65
B 250 z 360/380 cs 2.00
B 400 h 325 c .45 to .50
B 1000 g 300 c .50 to .60
B 250 n 300 c 13.10 vs 299.9
B 500 h 300/315 cs 1.70 vs 289.4
S 1500 g 290 c 2.50 to 2.30
S 200 h 285 p 3.40
B 300 h 295 c 3.90 to 4.35
B 2500 h 300 c 2.50 to 3.25
B 1000 h 280 p 2.10 vs 290.0
B 1000 h 290 p 6.00 vs 290.0
S 3000 h 315 c 1.00 to .75
B 800 g 290 p 1.90 to 2.60
Bean oil
S 150 k 5350 straddles 6.110
B 1000 h 56 c .685
B 250 h 4850/4650 ps .165
S 1500 h 52 c 2.130 vs 5290
B 500 n 60/65 cs .790 vs 5365
S 500 n 54/58 cs 1.225 to 1.220
S 250 n 54/58 cs 1.220 vs 5333
B 200 h 49 p .420 vs 5245
S 500 k 60 c 1.215 to 1.195
B 250 h 5350/56 cs vs s 5050 p even
B 500 h 57 c .540 to .570
S 500 k 54 c 2.830 to 2.820
S 500 h 51/54 cs 1.260
S 300 h 55 c .810 vs 5227
S 800 h 51/49 ps .655 to .575
B 500 k 60 c 1.185 vs 5297
S 250 h 5250 straddle 3.500 to 3.470
S 300 n 4250 p .280 vs 5325
S 300 n 43 p .330 vs 5325
S 300 n 4350 p .380 vs 5325
S 300 n 44 p .430 vs 5325
B 1000 k 55 c vs s h 55 c 1.550 db
B 500 g 5250 c .570 to .640
B 1000 h 52 c vs s k 58 c .345 to .395 db
S 2000 h 55 c 1.000 to .870
B 500 h 48 p .290 to .310
B 500 g 54/56 cs .200
S 500 h 5250 c 1.700
B 250 k 48 p .990
B 1000 h 56 c .775 to .845
B 500 k 55/65 cs 1.745 vs 5267
S 650 h 5450 c 1.200 to 1.115
B 500 h 60 c .300
On a block
B 250 k 55/65 cs 1.740 vs 5267
S 500 k 60 c 1.220 vs 5320
S 1000 h 55/60 cs .620 vs 5250
Wheat
B 200 h 540 c 6
B 300 h 535/570 cs 4 1/8
B 175 510p/515c strangles 8 7/8
B 800 h 500 p 6 ½ vs 514 3/4
B 500 g 505 p 2 ½ vs 512 3/4
S 400 h 530 c 8 to 7 1/2
B 500 h 500 p 6 ½ vs 514 3/4
B 750 g 510 p 3 3/4
Kc wheat
B 200 h 510 p 9 5/8
B 700 g 525 straddles 12 ¾
S 400 h 515 p 9 ¼ vs 524
B 100 w5 500 p 1
S 150 k 510/480 ps 8 1/2
B 250 k 530 c 20 3/8
Crush
S 65 k 150 p 6
S 65 h 150 p 4
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg
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