CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

Tue, 03 Feb 2026, 13:37

USDA has shifted its New World screwworm defense strategy by moving sterile fly dispersal operations north to reinforce protection along the U.S.–Mexico border, extending coverage about 50 miles into South Texas opposite Tamaulipas, Mexico. Although the nearest confirmed cases remain roughly 200 miles south of the border, increased activity in northern Mexico prompted USDA to proactively establish a sterile buffer zone to prevent the pest from reaching the United States. The program relies on releasing sterile male flies so reproduction cannot occur, with dyed insects used to distinguish sterile flies from wild ones during surveillance. USDA stressed that this effort complements strict import protocols, quarantine measures, and extensive monitoring, which recently identified screwworm larvae on an imported horse from Argentina while preventing any U.S. spread. To date, no screwworm has been detected in U.S. livestock, wildlife, or traps, but USDA is urging continued vigilance from animal owners and the public.

U.S. manufacturing data for January painted a much stronger picture than markets expected. S&P Global’s final Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, firmly in expansion territory and above both expectations and the prior reading. More striking, Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.6 versus expectations near contraction, marking a sharp rebound from December. The upside surprise was driven by a powerful jump in new orders to 57.1, signaling a clear acceleration in demand, while employment improved to 48.1, still contractionary but meaningfully better than prior months. Prices paid edged higher to 59.0, underscoring persistent cost pressures even as it came in slightly below expectations. Overall, the data suggest U.S. manufacturing re-entered expansion at the start of the year, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient economy with demand momentum and sticky inflation pressures still very much in play.

Fed official Raphael Bostic said the outlook for the first half of 2026 points to continued strong economic performance, with inflation remaining elevated and a key concern. He noted that no one on the Committee is projecting a deterioration in the labor market and expects the economy to remain resilient through 2026. Bostic said policymakers should reach an equilibrium stance by midyear, emphasized that tariff-related inflation pressures are not finished, and cautioned that it is premature to declare the inflation fight over. He added that he has no rate cuts penciled in for 2026, though one or two cuts would place policy at neutral.

President Donald Trump said he spoke with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and reached a broad trade and energy understanding under which India would significantly reduce or halt purchases of Russian oil and increase imports from the United States, with potential sourcing from Venezuela as well. Trump said the agreement includes a reduction in the U.S. reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, along with the removal of an additional punitive tariff tied to India’s Russian oil purchases. In return, India would move toward eliminating tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods and sharply increase purchases of American energy, technology, agricultural products, coal, and other items, totaling more than $500 billion. While the announcement signals a major shift in U.S.–India trade and energy relations, key details, timelines, and formal confirmation from the Indian government have yet to be fully outlined.

Pepsi, ADM, and Mondelez are among the many companies reporting earnings today.

Overnight options activity

Corn

B 1000 k 400 p 2 1/8 vs 434

Beans

S 1200 h 1060 p 10 to 9 3/4

S 500 h 1050 p 5 1/4

S 1000 w1 1060 p vs b w3 1050 p paying even

S 600 h 1080 straddles 28 ½ to 28

Soymeal

B 200 j 320 c 1.90

B 200 h 288 p 2.15

Bean oil

S 200 k 52 p 1.660 to 1.640

B 500 n 65 c 1.140 to 1.195

S 300 j 55 c 2.230

B 100 h 5350 p .910

Open interest changes

Corn

March 430 put sale and march 430 call buy were closing

Beans

March 1060 put sale, march 1080 call buy and march 1100 call buys were closing

Soymeal

March 290 put sale was closing

Bean oil

Dec 55/65 call spread buy vs sale of dec 45 put, march 52 put sale, july 60/65 call spread buy and may 55/60 call spread buys were new....march 55 call sale, march 48 put buy, march 50 put buy and may 52 put buys were closing....may 57/62 call spread sale was rolling a short....march 57/60 call spread buy was rolling a long

Lean hogs

April 90 put buy was new

Feeder cattle

March 368/364 put spread sale was rolling a short

Cvol

Ags 17.38% down .55%

Corn 15.36% down .17%

Beans 13.59% down .08%

Soymeal 18.97% down .35%

Bean oil 27.83% up .94%

Wheat 24.14% down .54%

Feeder cattle 17.94% down 1.31%

Live cattle 15.74% down 1.38%

Lean hogs 20.32% down .13%

Class 3 milk 21.04% down 1.92%

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
cvol cme group

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

Grains & Oilseeds

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