Non farm payroll data this morning.
McDonalds, Kraft and Pilgrims Pride among the many reporting earnings today.
Today is day 4 of 5 for the Goldman roll.
Hammack and Lorie Logan, both 2026 voters, struck a broadly aligned higher-for-longer tone, arguing that monetary policy is already near neutral and can remain on hold for an extended period while the Fed evaluates incoming data. Both emphasized that inflation is still too high, with a meaningful risk it could hover near 3%, and stressed that inflation must clearly return to 2% before rates are adjusted again. They described the labor market as stable in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, reducing the urgency for rate cuts, though Logan noted that a material deterioration in labor conditions could warrant easing. Overall, both expressed cautious optimism that the current policy stance can bring inflation down while maintaining labor market balance, while retaining flexibility to respond if inflation becomes entrenched or financial stability risks emerge.
China’s January inflation data showed price pressures remain subdued. CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations of 0.3% and matching December’s pace. On a year-over-year basis, CPI slowed sharply to 0.2% from 0.8%, undershooting forecasts of 0.4%, highlighting weak consumer demand. Meanwhile, producer prices remained in deflation for a 16th straight month, with PPI down 1.4% year-over-year—an improvement from December’s -1.9% and slightly better than the -1.5% expected—suggesting ongoing industrial price pressure but some stabilization at the factory level.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that U.S.–China relations are currently stable but remain competitive, emphasizing that the administration’s objective is fair competition and strategic “de-risking,” not full economic decoupling. He also stressed that China needs to rebalance its economy in light of the persistent roughly $1 trillion trade imbalance, signaling continued pressure on Beijing to address structural trade distortions while maintaining overall economic engagement.
China said it will keep monetary policy loose to support growth, work to keep financing costs low, expand use of the yuan in cross-border trade, and help tech firms raise funding through bond issuance, while openly acknowledging the economy is suffering from excess supply and weak demand. Separately, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China views India as a partner rather than a competitor and wants to deepen cooperation and mutual trust following recent strategic dialogue between the two countries.
The White House revised its Fact Sheet on the U.S.–India trade deal, removing the earlier reference to pulses and softening the language around India’s proposed $500 billion purchase package. What had previously been described as a firm “commitment” is now framed as an “intent,” signaling a shift from a binding pledge to a more aspirational goal and suggesting the terms may be less finalized than initially presented.
U.S. data came in broadly soft and underwhelming. December retail sales flatlined at 0% versus expectations for solid growth, with ex-autos also flat and the control group outright negative at -0.1%, a clear miss and a bad signal for real consumer momentum. Business inventories rose just 0.1%, undershooting expectations and pointing to slower restocking. Labor cost pressures continue to cool, with the Employment Cost Index rising 0.7% in Q4, slightly below forecasts. On prices, export prices firmed a bit more than expected, while import prices were exactly in line — nothing inflationary enough to change the narrative. ADP employment was weak at just 6.5k, reinforcing the picture of a slowing but not collapsing economy. Net: consumption is wobbling, growth momentum is fading, and the data doesn’t support a hawkish pivot.
US Senate Majority Leader Thune said a stopgap will almost certainly be required to fund DHS to avoid a shutdown, admitting there’s no clear path to getting around extending the deadline. ICE is already funded through 2029, so any DHS shutdown would mainly hit agencies like TSA while ICE keeps operating — effectively using a shutdown threat to pressure outcomes even though border enforcement funding isn’t actually at risk.
Taiwanese trade negotiators have departed for the United States to hold final discussions on a trade deal.
The White House said President Trump spoke with Canadian Prime Minister Carney earlier today and made clear that the U.S. finds it unacceptable for Canada to own land on both sides of the US–Canada bridge, arguing the United States should have shared authority and at least a 50% ownership stake. Carney, meanwhile, described the call as wide-ranging and positive, and told Trump that Canada has paid for the Gordie Howe Bridge.
USTR Greer said the U.S. is beginning negotiations on a deal covering critical minerals, confirmed that the Trump–Xi meeting remains scheduled for April following what he described as a strong call last week, and noted that talks with Mexico are starting now. He added that U.S.–Canada discussions are narrowly focused on the bridge issue, emphasizing that President Trump has legitimate concerns about the project.
| Outside Markets | Price | Change | % Change | | |
| Dow | 50,290 | 17.00 | 0.03 | | |
| Crude | 64.85 | 0.89 | 1.39 | | |
| US Dollar | 96.4450 | (0.230) | -0.24 | | |
| Gold | 5,073.21 | 47.760 | 0.95 | | |
| US 2/10 Swap | 68.1140 | (0.5420) | - | | |
| VIX | 18.32 | 0.53 | - | | |
| | | | | | |
| CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest | | | | |
| | Previous Volume | Change in OI | Options Volume | Change in Options OI | |
| Corn | 521,099 | 3,523 | 93,581 | 25,080 | |
| SRW | 224,226 | (3,052) | 9,221 | 48 | |
| HRW | 117,990 | (3,674) | - | 2,455 | |
| Soybeans | 446,156 | 4,260 | 89,665 | 23,421 | |
| Meal | 224,000 | 2,480 | 25,476 | 2,647 | |
| Oil | 288,013 | 13,713 | 57,347 | 4,237 | |
| Feeders | 25,497 | (42) | 3,437 | 1,171 | |
| Live Cattle | 63,382 | 342 | 14,155 | 5,516 | |
| Hogs | 68,157 | 1,577 | 12,929 | 1,820 | |
| | | | | | |
Overnight options activity
Corn
S 500 h 420 p 3/4
B 200 n 430 p 11 3/4
Beans
S 275 n 1060/1080 cs 15
B 300 n 1290/1400 cs vs s x 960 p paying even
B 200 sd m 1120 c 23 1/2
On a block
B 500 h 1100 p 3
Soymeal
B 950 h 312/320 cs .55
Bean oil
S 200 k 51 p .660 to .625
B 150 j 5050 p .320
Wheat
B 100 h 570 c 5/8
Kc wheat
S 150 h 535 c 7
Open interest changes
July 470 call sale, sept 440 put buy, july 475 call buy and july 415 put sales were new.....may 425 put sale and may 490 call buys were closing ....july 500/550 call spread buy was rolling a long
Beans
July 1200 call buy, april 1080 put buy and may 1200 call buys were new...may 1160 call sale was closing
Soymeal
March 300 call sale was closing ...march 310 call buy was new
Bean oil
July 70 call buy, march 55 put buy and march 57 call buys were new....march 55 call sale, may 55/65 call spread sale and april 65 call sales were closing
Wheat
March 560 call buy was closing
Kc wheat
April 560 call sale and april 550/600 call spread buys were new
Cvol
Ags 18.67% down .34%
Corn 15.17% down .56%
Beans 16.69% up .45%
Soymeal 21.10% up .66%
Bean oil 30.97% down .22%
Wheat 21.88% down .96%
Feeder cattle 19.00% down .70%
Live cattle 18.13% down .63%
Lean hogs 19.25% down .38% (1 month low)
Class 3 milk 19.29% down 2.31%
sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
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