CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

The lunar new year has begun. 

LTD for March grain options is friday.  

USDA Outlook Conference is Thursday and Friday. 

Friday’s 402,529 contracts traded in Chicago SRW wheat marked unusually strong overall volume, but the more significant development was the March/May spread rallying 6 cents on more than 93,000 contracts traded. That level of spread participation alongside a meaningful price move suggests concentrated positioning rather than routine roll activity, pointing to possible commercial coverage, nearby tightness, or short covering in the front month. When large total volume coincides with heavy calendar spread trade and expansion in the spread, it typically reflects shifting perceptions about near-term supply-demand dynamics rather than simple liquidity noise.

China will waive import value-added taxes on selected seeds, genetic resources, and breeding materials through 2030 in order to strengthen domestic agricultural competitiveness and long-term food security. The policy is designed to improve crop yields, enhance livestock genetics, and accelerate seed self-sufficiency as China continues upgrading its domestic production capacity. Separately, beginning May 1, China will grant zero-tariff access to 53 African nations, expanding trade relationships and deepening economic ties across developing markets. Together, these moves reflect a strategic effort to modernize agriculture at home while strengthening geopolitical and trade influence abroad.

President Trump said Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently engaged in discussions with Cuban officials and indicated that Cuba is interested in reaching a deal with the United States. Trump added that negotiations are ongoing and emphasized that the outcome remains uncertain, saying “we’ll see how it all turns out,” signaling early-stage diplomatic engagement rather than a finalized agreement.

 

EU industrial production contracted 1.4% month-over-month in December, slightly better than expectations for a 1.5% decline, but a sharp reversal from November’s upwardly revised 0.3% gain (previously reported as 0.7%). On a year-over-year basis, output rose 1.2%, just below the 1.3% forecast and slowing notably from November’s 2.2% pace (revised from 2.5%). The data point to weakening industrial momentum heading into year-end, with growth decelerating despite modest beats versus consensus on the monthly figure.

 

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman signaled that U.S. banks will face updated mortgage capital requirements under the Basel framework, but emphasized regulators are aiming for a balanced approach that supports both financial stability and renewed bank participation in the mortgage market. She indicated that two forthcoming regulatory proposals will adjust the broader capital framework in ways designed to increase incentives for banks to originate and service mortgages. The message suggests a shift toward recalibrating post-crisis capital rules to encourage more lending activity while maintaining safety and soundness standards.

 

Canada is clearly ramping up its trade positioning on multiple fronts. Trade Minister François-Philippe LeBlanc said roughly 370 Canadian business leaders are in Mexico pursuing partnerships and export opportunities, particularly in pharmaceuticals and agriculture — a sign Ottawa is actively diversifying commercial ties within North America. At the same time, Prime Minister Mark Carney appointed Janice Charette as Canada’s next Chief Trade Negotiator to the United States, where she will work closely with Ambassador Mark Wiseman and serve as a senior adviser ahead of the upcoming CUSMA review. Together, these moves suggest Canada is preparing for a structured, high-stakes renegotiation phase while simultaneously broadening its regional economic relationships.

India appears to be accelerating its trade diplomacy on two major fronts at once. Officials say New Delhi aims to operationalize its trade agreement with the United Kingdom by April, signaling momentum toward deeper market access with Europe. At the same time, India’s chief negotiator is expected to travel to Washington next week to finalize terms with the United States, with reports suggesting India anticipates U.S. tariffs could be reduced to around 18% from the current 25% reciprocal level. Taken together, the moves suggest India is pursuing parallel agreements to secure tariff relief, diversify trade relationships, and strengthen its positioning with both Western partners rather than aligning exclusively with any single bloc.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announcing a new chief trade negotiator to the U.S. is a substantive administrative move rather than a headline gesture. It signals that Ottawa expects active or potentially difficult trade discussions with Washington and wants a dedicated, senior-level point person managing the file. This typically indicates preparation for negotiations — whether related to tariffs, sectoral disputes, supply chains, or a broader USMCA review — and reflects an effort to professionalize and centralize Canada’s U.S. trade strategy. While not dramatic on its own, it suggests Canada is positioning itself for structured, ongoing engagement rather than rhetorical posturing.

The reported talks between the European Union and a 12-nation Indo-Pacific bloc, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney helping to push the discussions, look more like political optics than a development that meaningfully weakens the United States. While it may be framed as a response to Washington’s tougher trade stance — especially following recent remarks from Secretary of State Marco Rubio — simply exploring a large alliance does not automatically create leverage. These countries remain heavily reliant on access to the U.S. consumer market, dollar-based trade flows, and U.S. security structures. Without binding trade rules, unified tariff policy, or enforcement mechanisms, exploratory talks alone are unlikely to materially increase their negotiating power against the U.S.

The Politico headline suggesting that Carney is building a “mega anti-Trump trade alliance” is likely more dramatic framing than evidence of a formal new economic bloc. While leaders often coordinate with allies and emphasize multilateral cooperation, such language tends to amplify political optics rather than signal immediate structural trade shifts. Without concrete agreements, coordinated tariff actions, or binding policy changes, the headline appears geared toward generating attention and reinforcing political narratives rather than reflecting a material realignment of global trade flows.

Outside Markets	Price	Change	% Change
Dow	49,470	(99.00)	-0.20
Crude	63.43	0.54	0.86
US Dollar	97.2200	0.401	0.41
Gold	4,922.20	(69.880)	-1.40
US 2/10 Swap	61.9130	(1.9480)	-
VIX	22.18	0.98	-
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest
	Previous Volume	Change in OI	Options Volume	Change in Options OI
Corn	-	(1,780,730)	-	(1,413,349)
SRW	-	(487,307)	-	(261,779)
HRW	-	(303,386)	-	(89,736)
Soybeans	-	(962,682)	-	(889,113)
Meal	-	(530,029)	-	(251,545)
Oil	-	(708,902)	-	(441,646)
Feeders	-	(75,631)	-	(119,852)
Live Cattle	-	(330,631)	-	(382,227)
Hogs	-	(370,942)	-	(447,044)

overnight options activity 

 

corn

b 300 k 440 straddles 25 1/8 to 25 3/8 vs 439 1/4

b 500 k 460 c 5 3/4 vs 438 3/4

b 200 h 430 p 2 5/8 

 

beans

b400 n 1200 c 29 1/2

s 450 h 1100/1130 cs 22 1/8 

s 1200 k 1060/1040 ps 2 1/8 

s 500 n 1200 c 29 3/8 to 29

s 800 n 1130 p 31 3/4 to 30 7/8 

 

on a block

s 400 h 1100/1130 cs 22

 

soymeal

s 600 n 310 p 11.50

b 100 h 310 c 2.30

 

bean oil 

b 250 k 60 c 2.350 

 

wheat

s 100 k 540 p 19

b 100 h 565 c 3/4
s 250 h 525 p 7/8

kc wheat

s 100 k 545 straddles 45

s 500 k 535 c 5 to 4 1/2

Open interest changes

Corn

April 460 call sale and july 460 call buys were new...july 470/520 call spread buy was rolling a short, march 435 call sale, dec 450 put sale, july 450 call sale and march 435/440 call spread sales were closing.

 

Beans

May 1100/1050 put spread buy was rolling a long...may 1200 call buy, may 1100 put buy, may 1180/1290 call spread sale, short dated may 1160 call sale, july 1400 call sale and july nov +70/+110 cso call spread buys were new....july 1200 call buy was closing 

 

Soymeal

March 310 call sale was closing

 

Bean oil

March 5750 call buy was closing...july 52 put sale was new...

 

Wheat

March 550/555 call spread sale was closing...march 545 put sale was new

 

Lean hogs

April 98/100 call spread buy was rolling a short....june 100 put sale was closing

 

Live cattle

March 241 call buy was new

 

Cvol

Ags 18.70% down .31%

Corn 15.40% down.27%

Beans 17.17% down .36%

Soymeal 22.25 down .58%

Bean oil 32.20% down .27%

Wheat 23.83%down 1.62%

Feeder cattle 17.63% down .16%

Livee cattle 16.92% down .20%

Lean hogs 19.96% down .51%

Class 2 milk 22.55% up 1.00%

 

corn

beans

soymeal

bean oil

wheat

kc wheat

miax wheat

oats

rough rice

crush

 

sources
news bloomberg

options data globex

charts bloombert