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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

The USDA Outlook Conference begins today, with the first round of baseline supply-and-demand projections expected to be released around 8:30 a.m. CT. The initial data typically includes early acreage expectations, trend yield assumptions, and preliminary balance sheet outlooks for the upcoming marketing year. Grain markets will be focused on planted area signals for corn, soybeans, and wheat, along with any shifts in demand assumptions that could influence new-crop stocks projections and price direction.

Walmart and Deere report earnings today. 

LTD for March grain options is tomorrow. 

President Trump said in a social media post that the U.S. trade deficit has been reduced by 78% due to tariffs imposed on foreign countries and companies, arguing that the policy shift is dramatically improving the nation’s trade position. He added that the U.S. is on track to move into a trade surplus later this year for the first time in decades, framing the tariffs as a key driver of the turnaround and a validation of his administration’s trade strategy.

Canada’s minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, Dominic LeBlanc, said Canadian companies from several provinces have signed 15 new commercial partnerships in Mexico, underscoring deeper North American business ties. He noted that Mexico’s Economy Secretary supports maintaining a trilateral structure in the upcoming USMCA  review. LeBlanc said Canada and Mexico share an interest in reducing U.S.-imposed sectoral tariffs but confirmed they have not discussed contingency plans if the U.S. were to pursue bilateral deals. He also said he plans to meet with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the coming weeks to discuss the agreement’s future.

A major U.S. arms sales package for Taiwan is currently on hold amid pressure from Chinese President Xi Jinping and concerns within the Trump administration that approving the deal could disrupt President Trump’s planned visit to Beijing. The situation highlights the balancing act between supporting Taiwan’s defense needs and managing broader diplomatic relations with China ahead of high-level talks.

The US-ASEAN Business Council announced that U.S. and Indonesian companies have signed a series of trade and investment agreements spanning critical minerals, semiconductors, agriculture, forestry, textiles, energy, and technology. The deals include a $4.89 billion semiconductor joint venture involving Essence Global Group, underscoring deeper supply chain collaboration. On the agricultural front, Indonesian firms committed to purchase 1 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, 1.6 million metric tons of corn, and 93,000 metric tons of cotton over an unspecified timeframe. Indonesia’s government later confirmed a broader $38.4 billion package of agreements with U.S. companies, signaling expanded bilateral economic ties across strategic and commodity sectors.

The January FOMC minutes showed broad agreement to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, with nearly all participants supporting no change and only a couple favoring a 25 basis point cut, arguing policy remains restrictive and labor market risks persist. Many officials felt that after 75bps of easing last year, rates are now near neutral and that supportive financial conditions and fiscal policy should help sustain growth. However, there was clear divergence on the path forward: some indicated additional cuts would likely be appropriate if disinflation continues as expected, while others preferred to wait for firmer evidence that inflation is returning to target. A few participants also supported more balanced, two-sided guidance, noting that rate hikes could be warranted if inflation stalls. Overall, the Committee emphasized that policy is not on a preset course and will remain data-dependent, guided by incoming economic information and evolving risks.

image-20260219044608-1

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

B 275 j 425 p 3 to 3 1/8 

B 200 j 450/460 cs 1 3/4

 

Beans

B 300 k 1100/1060 ps 8 3/8 

 

Bean oil

B 200 j 53 p .450 to .460 

S 300 j 53 p .390 to .385

 

Wheat

B 100 j 550 p 14 1/8 vs 555 ½ 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

July 450 call sale and july 410 put buys were new

 

Beans

May 1150 put sale and april 1180/1230 call spread buys were new

 

Bean oil

July 56/51 put spread buy, july 61/66 call spread buy, july 6150/6650 call spread buy, may 64/70 call spread buy, may 59 call sale, april 59 call buy and may 65 call call buys were new.....july 70 call buy, may 58 call sale and april 65/70 call spread sales were closing 

 

Wheat 

April 575/625 1x2 call spread sale and dec 680 call buy vs sale of 520 puts were new

 

Kc wheat

April 585/625 call spread buy and april 545 put buys were new

 

 

Cvol

Ags 18.84% down .02%

Corn 15.26% down .13%

Beans 17.65% down .04%

Soymeal 22.18% down .30%

Bean oil 34.93% up .87% (3 month high)

Wheat 26.04% up 1.79% (3 month high)

Feeder cattle 16.65% down .63% (3 month low)

Live cattle 16.47% down .18%

Lean hogs 19.05% down .55% (3 month low)

Class 3 milk 24.09% up 2.50%

 

Corn

image-20260219044608-2

Beans

image-20260219044608-3

Soymeal

image-20260219044608-4

Bean oil

image-20260219044608-5

Wheat

image-20260219044608-6

Kc wheat

image-20260219044608-7

Miax wheat

image-20260219044608-8

Oats

image-20260219044608-9

Rough rice

image-20260219044608-10

Crush

image-20260219044608-11

Feeder cattle

image-20260219044608-12

Live cattle

image-20260219044608-13

Lean hogs

image-20260219044608-14

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

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