Corn volatility has moved back above soybean volatility for the first time since 2/4, signaling a shift in relative risk pricing. Options markets are now assigning greater near-term uncertainty to corn, likely tied to shifting weather expectations, positioning, or broader macro/geopolitical factors. When corn vol leads beans, the market often becomes more sensitive to fundamental headlines and price swings in corn tend to sharpen.
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) moving above 30 signals a significant rise in market stress and uncertainty. The VIX reflects expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, and levels above 30 typically occur during periods of major geopolitical events, financial shocks, or sharp equity selloffs. Historically, readings in the 30–40 range indicate markets are entering a risk-off environment where investors are aggressively buying options for protection, often coinciding with declining equity prices, tighter financial conditions, and increased movement across commodities, currencies, and interest rates. In the current environment—marked by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and volatility in energy markets—the elevated VIX suggests investors are pricing in the possibility of larger market swings until uncertainty around oil supply, trade policy, and global growth begins to ease.
A planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is unlikely to produce a major breakthrough, according to officials involved in the preparations. Sources familiar with the discussions say expectations are low that the meeting will lead to even a limited reset in business or investment relations between the United States and China, suggesting that structural tensions over trade, technology, and economic security will likely remain in place despite the high-level talks.
Recent U.S. statements suggest the administration believes the current surge in oil prices is temporary and largely driven by geopolitical risk rather than a true supply shortage. Donald Trump argued that higher oil prices are a short-term cost that will fall once the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated, framing the situation as necessary for global security. At the same time, Chris Wright said global oil supplies remain adequate and that the recent rally mainly reflects a temporary “fear premium.” Scott Bessent echoed that view, noting the world is well supplied with oil and suggesting the U.S. could ease sanctions on some Russian oil while working to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, the U.S. is reportedly creating a $20 billion reinsurance facility to support Gulf shipping and help restore maritime cargo flows through the region.
An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman publicly challenged Donald Trump after the U.S. suggested it could escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, daring the United States to actually deploy naval escorts for oil tankers moving through the chokepoint. The statement is part of escalating rhetoric tied to tensions around Gulf shipping, where Iran has historically threatened to disrupt traffic in response to sanctions or military pressure. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, carrying roughly 20% of global oil flows, so even verbal challenges like this can raise geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets. The remark suggests Iran is signaling it is prepared to contest U.S. naval protection operations, which increases the risk of naval incidents and helps explain recent volatility and “fear premium” movements in global crude oil prices.
India is trying to balance relations with the United States while maintaining energy independence as tensions around Russian oil and Gulf shipping rise. After the U.S. granted a 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to unload Russian oil shipments stranded at sea, India’s government responded with a notably firm statement emphasizing that India has never needed permission to purchase oil from Russia and that Russia remains its largest crude supplier as of February 2026. At the same time, Scott Bessent signaled Washington may consider easing additional sanctions on Russian oil to keep global supply flowing. The broader geopolitical dynamic suggests that even if tensions disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, major importers such as China and India could partially offset the disruption through alternative supply arrangements—such as Russia meeting more of India’s needs and Saudi Arabia rerouting crude via its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea—potentially limiting the long-term impact of any Hormuz blockade on global oil flows.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection told a federal court it cannot immediately refund roughly $166 billion in tariffs that were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court of the United States, explaining that its current systems, administrative procedures, and staffing are not capable of processing refunds on such a large scale right away. The agency said identifying eligible importers, verifying tariff payments, and issuing reimbursements would require significant time and operational changes. As a result, companies expecting refunds from tariffs implemented during the administration of Donald Trump may face delays while the government builds the infrastructure needed to manage one of the largest tariff refund efforts in U.S. history.
President Trump said he may refuse to sign any new legislation until Congress passes his proposed voting reform package, using the presidential veto power as leverage to push lawmakers to act on election-related changes. The threat signals an escalation in the administration’s strategy to prioritize voting policy and could potentially stall other legislation if negotiations with Congress over the reforms do not move forward.
China’s National People's Congress Standing Committee announced plans to revise several key economic laws, including the framework governing state-owned enterprise assets, while also strengthening legislative research related to artificial intelligence and other emerging sectors. The committee said it will also move forward with revisions to the law governing the People's Bank of China and the country’s banking regulation law, signaling efforts to modernize financial oversight, strengthen control over state assets, and establish clearer regulatory structures for rapidly developing technologies such as AI.
China’s inflation data came in stronger than expected for February, with consumer prices rising 1.3% year-over-year, well above the 0.8% forecast and January’s 0.2% increase, indicating a rebound in consumer inflation. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 0.9% year-over-year, which was still negative but less severe than the -1.1% expected and January’s -1.4%, suggesting that deflationary pressure at the factory level is beginning to ease. Together, the data points to improving domestic price momentum in China, with consumer demand strengthening while industrial deflation gradually moderates.
Overnight options activity
Corn
S 3000 j 490 c 5 5/8 vs 471
B 2000 sd k 600 c 1 ¼ to 1 7/8
B 1600 z 470/450 ps 9 to 9 1/8
B 500 k 530 c 5 1/8
B 500 n 480/510 cs vs s n 440 p 1 ¾ db
B 1500 k 600 c 1 ½ to 1 3/4
B 800 j 460/445 ps 4 ¼ to 4 3/8
B 2000 k 500 c 8 ½ to 9
B 500 k 480 c 13 3/8 to 14
S 250 n 500/550 cs 10 7/8 vs 480
S 1000 k 460 c vs b 2000 k 500 c 4 ½ cr
B 500 k 465/440 ps 9 3/4
S 1500 n 600 c 5 to 4 5/8
B 800 j 460 c 16 1/4
B 1000 j 450/460 cs 6 to 6 1/4
S 150 z 430p/480c strangles 54
B 800 k 420 p 2 to 2 1/8
B 100 u 570 c 11 3/4
B 1000 n 495 c vs s 500 n 475 straddles 12 ½ to 12 cr
B 200 sd z 500 c 16 3/4
B 200 sd n 500/550 cs 12 3/8
B 1000 z 580/700 cs 9 to 9 1/2
B 2900 h 440/430 ps 2 1/2
Beans
B 1000 j 1180 p 13 to 13 1/4
S 1000 j 1200/1250 cs 22 to 21
S 500 n 1100 c vs b 750 n 1240 c 119 5/8 to 118 ½ cr vs 1230 1/2
S 600 n 1160 p 24 1/8 to 23 7/8
B 150 x 3000 c 1/4
B 1000 k 1120 p 7 to 7 3/8
B 1000 k 1230/1270 cs 14 5/8 vs 1226
S 600 n 1260 c 43 ¼ to 41 1/8
B 800 n 1290 c 34 to 34 7/8
B 200 k 1160/1140 ps 5
S 300 k 1140/1160 cs 15
B 500 j 1350 c 1 7/8
B 100 k 1350/1450 cs 5 1/8
B 500 j 1230/1280 cs 13 3/4
S 500 w2 1180/1160 cs 1 1/2
Soymeal
B 500 k 340 c 5.40 vs 319.0
B 400 j 325 c 6.15
Bean oil
S 2000 j 70/75 cs 1.250 to 1.210
B 500 n 70 c 4.500 to 4.550
B 650 j 57 p .075
S 500 j 6550 p 1.025 to .955
B 200 j 54 p .040
B 100 k 65/75 cs 4.100
Wheat
B 200 j 630 c 30
B 300 j 900 c vs s 150 j 800 c 1 db
S 300 k 700 c vs b k 580 p 2 cr vs 623
Kc wheat
S 1000 j 580 p 5
S 1000 j 595/625/665 call flies 9 ¼ vs 633
Open interest changes
Corn
May 470/480 call spread buy, July 430/330 put spread sale, april 500 call buy, sept 550/600 call spread buy, sept 520/580 call spread buy, july 450 put buy and april 470 call buys were new...april 460 call sale was closing
Beans
Nov 1000 put sale was closing...short july 1120/1200 call spread sale was rolling a long....july 1260 call buy and july 1100 put sales were new
Soymeal
May 335/365 cs buy vs sale of 290 puts was new
Bean oil
July 70 call buy vs sale of 60 puts was new.....may 58 put buy was closing
Wheat
July 610/560 put spread buy and dec 700/800 call spread buys were rolling longs...may 500 put buy was closing
Kc wheat
Dec 700 call buy was new...may 560 put buy was closing
Live cattle
April 230/220 put spread buy was new
Cvol
Ags 24.46% up 2.61% (1 year high)
Corn 24.88% up 4.34% (6 month high)
Beans 22.93% up 2.22% (3 month high)
Soymeal 27.01% up 3.28% (3 month high)
Bean oil 40.68% up 3.54% (6 month high)
Wheat 50.37% up 14.03% (1 year high)
Feeder cattle 20.89% up 1.45%
Live cattle 19.36% up .94%
Lean hogs 18.28% up .33%
Class 3 milk 23.05% up .41%
Corn
beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Crush
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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