The CBOE Volatility Index closing below 20 for the first time since February signals that markets are moving out of a heightened risk environment and beginning to shed geopolitical and macro-driven volatility premiums. This aligns with the broader unwind in energy and commodity markets, where earlier fear-driven spikes have reversed, pointing to reduced demand for downside protection and a shift back toward more neutral or risk-on positioning. However, while this marks a clear cooling in market stress, volatility is not yet in a truly low or complacent range, suggesting the current calm is likely fragile and still vulnerable to renewed shocks from geopolitics or policy developments. Vix is currently trading over 21.
President Trump said Iran failed to follow through on its commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and remains unwilling to abandon its nuclear ambitions, emphasizing that any negotiated concessions are ultimately secondary to preventing nuclear capability in what he described as an unstable regime. At the same time, he struck a more optimistic tone on current conditions, noting that developments in the Strait are progressing positively, the blockade is proving effective, and the ceasefire is holding, while reiterating his stance that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
President Donald Trump warned that China would face “big problems” if it proceeds with reported plans to ship air defense systems to Iran, with intelligence suggesting the equipment could be routed covertly through third-party nations in the coming weeks. While the shipments are not yet confirmed and China has denied involvement, the warning highlights a sharp escalation in tensions following failed U.S.–Iran talks, raising the risk of broader geopolitical confrontation and potential economic retaliation if military support materializes.
China is set to eliminate tariffs on all imports from 53 African nations beginning May 1, according to Caixin, marking a significant expansion of trade ties and preferential access aimed at strengthening economic and political relationships across the continent while potentially boosting African export competitiveness into the Chinese market.
Today is day 4 of 5 for the Goldman roll.
The Federal Reserve is reportedly asking major U.S. banks to detail their exposure to private credit markets, according to Bloomberg, as regulators grow increasingly focused on risks tied to the sector. The move comes amid a surge in investor redemptions from private credit funds, raising concerns about liquidity, valuation transparency, and the potential for spillover into the broader financial system. While private credit has expanded rapidly in recent years as banks pulled back from direct lending, this inquiry signals that policymakers are now actively assessing whether that risk has simply migrated onto bank balance sheets through indirect channels such as financing, syndication, and fund exposure.
Earnings season for the major banks begins with Goldman Sachs, followed by JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, arriving at a moment when sentiment has weakened sharply. Bank stocks are off to their worst start since the 2023 regional banking stress, pressured by geopolitical risk and growing concerns around private credit, where questions about liquidity, valuation marks, and potential spillover into the broader financial system are beginning to surface. With valuations already compressed and positioning lighter, the bar for a positive reaction may be lower, meaning solid results—particularly stable credit quality and reassurance on private credit exposure—could spark a relief rally, while any confirmation of stress would likely reinforce the current downside pressure.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 800 n 455/480 cs 8 3/8
B 1500 k 450 c 3 3/8 to 3 5/8
B 500 n 420 p 3 7/8
B 250 u 520/620 cs 8 to 8 1/8
Beans
B 200 k 1150 p 4 7/8
Soymeal
B 400 k 350 c vs s k 325 c 2.25 to 2.15 cr
Bean oil
B 100 n 70 c 2.550 to 2.600
S 100 n 75 c 1.240 to 1.220
Wheat
B 500 k 635 c 1 ½ to 1 3/4
B 100 n 630/610 ps 14 3/8
S 200 n 670 c 10 ¼
S 200 n 630 c 18
Kc wheat
S 100 n 650 c 21 1/2
Open interest changes
Corn
May 445 call buy, may 450/440 put spread sale and july 445/415 put spread sales were closing...march 600/650 call spread buy and w3 450 call buys were new.....july 500/600 call spread buy was rolling a long....july 500 call buy was arbing the block
Beans
June 1310 call buy, nov 1200/1300 call spread buy vs sale of 1000 put, july 1250 call buy and short july 1200 call sales were new......july 1250/1350 call spread buy was rolling a long
Soymeal
May 345 call sale, may 320 put buy, june 350 call buy and may 320 put sales were new....may 320/315 1x2 put spread buy and may 330/335 call spread sales were rolling longs
Bean oil
May 71 call sale was new.....may 72 call sale, july 6550 put sale and may 7250 call buys were closing
Live cattle
June 252/248 put spread buy was rolling a long....june 228 put sale was closing
Cvol
Ags 19.25% up .01%
Corn 18.70% down .19% (1 month low)
Beans 16.96% up .64%
Soymeal 27.12% up 4.82%
Bean oil 30.42% down .28%
Wheat 28.40% down 1.70% (1 month low)
Feeder cattle 16.65% down .64% (3 month low)
Live cattle 15.86% down .32%
Lean hogs 18.26% down .21%
Class 3 milk 20.95% down .49%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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