Corn planting came in at 5% complete, a slight miss versus the 6% expected but still ahead of last year and the 5-year average, leaving the pace in a neutral-to-supportive range with no meaningful pressure on the market. Soybeans were the bigger story, advancing to 6% complete against a 2% expectation — the fastest pace on record for this point in the season — with the Midsouth leading both crops. While the soybean data carries an early bearish tilt given the smooth start and potential for rapid acceleration, both crops remain early enough in the planting window that weather risk still matters, a point reinforced by quietly deteriorating winter wheat conditions that continue to support a modest weather premium in the market.
U.S.–Iran tensions remain elevated as the blockade takes hold, but the diplomatic channel is still active and showing incremental progress. Multiple reports—from CNN and the AP—indicate that a second round of in-person talks is being lined up, potentially as soon as Thursday. Officials are signaling cautious optimism: Vice President JD Vance noted that Iran has moved in the U.S. direction, though not far enough, while other U.S. officials described “continued engagement” and ongoing discussions aimed at reaching an agreement, according to Axios. The overall tone suggests a dual-track approach—escalation via the blockade alongside active negotiations—with neither side fully breaking from talks despite the heightened pressure.
JPMorgan Chase reported a strong earnings beat, coming in ahead of expectations on both the top and bottom line, signaling continued resilience in core banking operations despite broader market uncertainty. The results suggest solid performance across key segments, helping reinforce confidence in the large bank space early in earnings season.
China’s Customs Vice Minister acknowledged a highly volatile global backdrop, pointing to escalating geopolitical tensions and sharp swings in oil prices as key sources of uncertainty. Despite this, the message was clearly stabilizing in tone—emphasizing that China intends to position itself not just as the world’s manufacturing hub, but increasingly as a major end-market for global goods. The commitment to maintaining a “stable scale” of foreign trade signals a policy bias toward supporting both exports and imports, suggesting Beijing is prepared to lean on trade as a tool to buffer external shocks and sustain economic momentum.
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China is warning that China is expanding its use of export controls, with European firms continuing to feel the impact—particularly around access to rare earth materials. According to Handelsblatt, these restrictions are increasingly disrupting supply chains and creating uncertainty for EU manufacturers that rely on critical inputs from China. The development reinforces concerns that export controls are becoming a more prominent policy tool, raising costs, tightening availability of key materials, and adding another layer of geopolitical risk to global industrial and technology supply chains.
Recent Federal Reserve commentary suggests policymakers are still leaning toward viewing the current energy-driven inflation pressure as temporary, while remaining alert to second-round risks. Miran, a dovish dissenter, indicated he expects inflation to return close to target within a year and does not see elevated oil prices as persistent, arguing it is appropriate to “look through” the current shock. Similarly, Austan Goolsbee emphasized that markets themselves expect the oil spike to be short-lived, though he cautioned that sustained prices near $90 per barrel could begin to bleed into broader inflation. He also highlighted that economic growth remains tied to consumer strength, while flagging some risk of deteriorating sentiment. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh has taken a procedural step forward by submitting required financial disclosures ahead of a potential confirmation hearing, according to CNBC.
China’s March trade data points to a clear shift in momentum, with export growth slowing sharply while imports surged well beyond expectations. Exports rose just 2.5% year-over-year—well below the anticipated 8.6%—signaling softer external demand and potentially reflecting ongoing global growth concerns and trade frictions. In contrast, imports jumped 27.8% year-over-year, nearly double expectations, suggesting a strong rebound in domestic demand, restocking activity, or front-loading of purchases. The divergence between weaker exports and robust imports narrows China’s trade surplus and hints at a near-term rebalancing toward internal demand, though it also raises questions about the sustainability of external demand support for manufacturing.
China is increasingly leveraging export controls as a strategic tool to assert trade power, expanding restrictions on critical materials, technologies, and industrial inputs where it holds global dominance. What began as a national security measure has evolved into a broader geopolitical lever, with tighter licensing, enforcement, and indirect controls creating uncertainty across supply chains such as semiconductors, energy, and agriculture. The shift highlights China’s ability to influence global markets through key chokepoints, reinforcing a more fragmented and politicized trade environment with heightened volatility and limited short-term alternatives for import-dependent regions.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 250 k 445 c 3 1/8 to 3 1/4
B 200 q 490 c 13 5/8
Beans
B 400 k 1200 c 2
S 300 k 1190/1250 cs 3 1/8 to 2 7/8
Bean oil
B 400 k 64 p .350
B 200 k 6850 c .350 to .400
S 100 k 70 c .150
S 150 m 69 c 1.200 to 1.100
B 400 k 55 p .025
B 600 k 49 p .015
B 200 k 78 c .025
B 300 k 69 c .250 to .300
B 1500 k 56 p .030
B 600 k 6450/6250 ps .350
Wheat
B 250 k 650 c 7/8
S 250 k 610 c 3 3/8 to 3 1/8
Kc wheat
S 500 k 590 p 5
Open interest changes
July 530 call buy, may 450 call buy and july 455 straddle buys were new....may 480 call buy was closing...july 445/425 put spread buy was rolling a short
Beans
W3 1160/1140 1x2 put spread buy, july 1170/1100 put spread buy vs sale of 1300 calls and june 1140/1090 1x2 put spread buys were new
Soymeal
May 300 put buy was closing ....july 350/400 call spread buy vs sale of 300 puts was new
Wheat
June 680/730 call spread buy was closing
Kc wheat
May 600/580 put spread buy and may 620 call buys were new
Live cattle
Dec 210/200 put spread buy and june 240 put buys were new
Cvol
Ags 19.39% up .14%
Corn 19.61% up .91%
Beans 16.71% down .25%
Soymeal 25.88% down 1.24%
Bean oil 28.70% down 1.73%
Wheat 30.52% up 2.12%
Feeder cattle 16.20% down .45%
Live cattle 15.77% down .09%
Lean hogs 19.40% up 1.13%
Class 3 milk 21.12% up .21%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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