Sept 470/440 put spread sales were rolling down a long in corn.
Iran headlines remain highly fluid, with diplomacy still alive but military escalation clearly raising the risk premium. Trump reportedly sent tougher terms to Iran, while Tehran may respond with edits to the U.S. draft rather than accept the framework as written, and Iranian officials continue to say talks are ongoing. At the same time, U.S. strikes on Iranian radar/command sites, Iranian retaliation claims, missile and drone activity involving Kuwait, reported injuries to Americans, and explosions near Erbil all point to a conflict that is not de-escalating cleanly. For markets, the key takeaway is that a deal is still possible, but the path is narrowing as both sides keep negotiating while also trading military actions and public threats, leaving crude, freight, and broader risk assets vulnerable to headline-driven volatility.
China’s warning adds another layer of trade-war risk to an already fragile EU-China relationship. Beijing is pushing back after the European Commission discussed a tougher China policy, including possible new tools to protect European industries from low-cost Chinese imports in sectors such as clean technology, chemicals, metals, and other strategic supply chains. Reuters reported the EU sees the current trade relationship as “not sustainable,” while China says Brussels is using selective trade data to justify protectionist measures and has threatened countermeasures if the EU moves ahead. For markets, this is negative for global trade sentiment and keeps pressure on Europe-China industrial flows, with potential spillover into autos, batteries, solar, steel, chemicals, shipping, and eventually ag if retaliation broadens.
Fed officials leaned into longer-term structural themes rather than near-term rate guidance. Waller said the global spread of dollar-backed stablecoins could broaden the reach of U.S. monetary policy by expanding the use of dollar liquidity outside the traditional banking system, which would support the dollar’s global role but also raise regulatory and financial-stability questions. Daly was more focused on AI, saying she sees early signs of productivity gains and does not expect mass unemployment or broad worker displacement, though she argued the biggest barriers to sustained AI-driven productivity growth are regulatory. Overall, the comments are constructive for the long-run U.S. growth and dollar story, but not a clear signal on the next Fed rate move.
India’s Finance Ministry is trying to keep markets focused on inflation risk ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s three-day policy meeting. The comment suggests officials are not ready to declare victory on price pressures, even if growth support remains important. For markets, this leans slightly hawkish at the margin because it lowers the odds of an aggressively dovish RBI message and keeps attention on food prices, energy costs, currency weakness, and imported inflation. The broader takeaway is that India’s policy backdrop remains one of caution: growth is still a priority, but inflation vigilance may limit how quickly the central bank can ease policy.
China’s May PMI data was mixed but slightly better under the surface. Manufacturing slipped to 50.0, below expectations and down from 50.3, signaling factory activity stalled right at the expansion/contraction line. The better news was in services and construction, where the non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.1 versus expectations of 49.5, moving back into expansion after April’s contraction. The composite PMI rose to 50.5 from 50.1, suggesting the broader economy is still expanding, but only modestly. For markets, this is not a strong China-demand signal, but it does reduce immediate fears of a deeper slowdown. For commodities, the data is neutral to slightly supportive: manufacturing remains soft, but improved services activity and a firmer composite reading point to some stabilization in domestic demand.
China’s latest platform-economy signal looks like a measured easing, not a full deregulation pivot. Beijing appears to be trying to support online platforms as a source of growth, jobs, consumption, and innovation, while still keeping tighter oversight on competition, data, pricing practices, and financial risk. For markets, the message is mildly supportive for Chinese tech and broader risk sentiment because it suggests policymakers do not want to choke off private-sector growth at a time when the economy is still sluggish. However, the regulatory ceiling remains in place, so this is more of a “support growth, but stay controlled” framework than a return to the aggressive platform expansion seen before the major tech crackdown.
Goldman’s stock volatility desk is saying the market is showing very little fear of a downside break, with investors no longer paying up aggressively for put protection. Normally, downside options carry a premium because traders want insurance against selloffs, but the headline suggests that “skew” has weakened or stopped behaving normally. That points to a complacent, risk-on market tone, which can be bullish in the short run but also leaves markets vulnerable if a negative catalyst suddenly forces investors to reprice downside risk.
Overnight options activity
Corn
B 1800 n 447/455 cs 3 3/8
B 150 z 480/510 cs vs s 450 p 5 7/8 cr
B 600 h 650/700 cs 1 5/8
B 400 z 540 c 10 ¾ vs 475
B 500 z 600 c 4 7/8
Beans
S 250 n 1190 c 17
B 200 sd q 1370 c 2 1/4
S 100 x 1200 c 45 5/8
Bean oil
S 100 v 78 c 2.600
S 250 n 75 p .780 to .680
B 400 n 71/70 ps .050
B 300 n 72 p .240
Open interest changes
Corn
Sept 470/440 put spread sale, sept 500/550 call spread buy, sept 500/530 call spread buy and july 450/435/430 spt tree sale were all rolling longs. Dec 500/550 call spread sale was closing...july 440 put buy and aug 500/550 call spread buys were new.
Beans
Aug 1180 put sale, sept 1180 put sale, july 1120 put buy, july 1230 call buy and july27 1300 call buys were new....july 1320 call sale was closing
Bean oil
July 80/85 call spread, july 73 put buy, july 72 put buy and july 72 call sales were closing....dec 60 put buy was new
Wheat
July 620 put buy and july 600 put sales were closing.
Kc wheat
July 740 call sale was closing
Lean hogs
Aug 80 put buy was new
Cvol
Ags 19.59% down .35%
Corn 23.17% down .56%
Beans 14.63% down .41% (3 month low)
Soymeal 19.17% down 1.36% (3 month low)
Bean oil 25.31% up .40%
Wheat 28.42% down 1.14% (1 month low)
Feeder cattle 16.70% down .32%
Live cattle 16.02% down .05% (1 month low)
Lean hogs 22.36% up .39%
Class 3 milk 19.49% down .47%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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