S&P has been up for 9 straight sessions.
Exchange stocks are under pressure after the CFTC opened the door to U.S.-regulated bitcoin perpetual futures, raising concerns that traditional exchanges could face a new wave of competition from crypto-native and retail-focused trading platforms. The bigger issue for investors is not just bitcoin, but whether perpetual-style contracts eventually expand into other asset classes, potentially challenging the fee structure, volume base, and market dominance of legacy exchange operators such as CME, ICE, Nasdaq, and Cboe. While this could mark a major shift in market structure toward more flexible, always-on trading products, it also raises concerns around leverage, speculation, and regulatory oversight.
U.S. farmer sentiment softened in May, with the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falling to 119, down from 121 in April and sharply below 158 last May. The weakness came almost entirely from the Current Conditions Index, which dropped 8 points to 107, its lowest level since December 2024, while Future Expectations actually improved slightly to 125 from 124. The main pressure point is rising production costs: 51% of respondents listed high input costs as their biggest concern, a new high. Overall, the survey says producers remain much less confident than a year ago, especially about present farm financial conditions, even though expectations for the future held up a little better.
The U.S. is escalating pressure on Brazil by proposing a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods after a Section 301 investigation found Brazil’s trade practices to be unfair, including issues tied to digital trade, electronic payments, anti-corruption enforcement, IP protection, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation. The important market detail is that the proposed tariff exempts several key Brazilian export products, including coffee, beef, wood pulp, orange juice, some fruits, and civil aircraft equipment, which is why markets largely shrugged it off and the Brazilian real actually firmed. For agriculture, the headline sounds aggressive, but the exemptions limit the immediate impact on major food and ag trade flows. The bigger risk is political: this keeps U.S.-Brazil trade tensions alive ahead of the July 15 deadline, and could still matter if talks fail or if future tariff coverage expands.
Argentina’s corn crop is adding bearish pressure to CBOT corn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is reportedly looking for a record 64 MMT crop, well above USDA’s last WASDE estimate of 59 MMT. That matters because South American corn is still priced more competitively than U.S. corn, especially into China, so hopes for a U.S.-China demand boost have not translated into big U.S. purchases yet. The market takeaway is that global supply is getting heavier, Argentina is competing aggressively on price, and U.S. corn needs either stronger export demand, weather risk, or fund short-covering to offset the pressure. For now, this headline leans bearish Dec corn, especially if U.S. crop conditions stay favorable.
Corn
S 2000 n 410 p 1
B 2000 sd n 500 c 2
B 1000 n 465 c 2 5/8
S 200 n 430p/455c strangles 8 1/2
B 1500 sd q 480/500 cs 4 7/8
B 100 nu -5 cso c 1 1/4
B 4700 h 520/560 cs 7 1/4
B 1000 q 485/535 cs 4 3/8
B 500 sd u 450 p 11 5/8
B 250 n 460 straddles 25 ¾ to 26 1/4
B 2000 q 505 c 3 3/4
B 1000 h 530 c vs s 2000 h 630 c 6
B 1000 sd n 510 c 1 1/4
B 3000 z 600 c 3 ¾ to 3 7/8
B 500 z 435 p 11
S 1000 n 450 p vs b 1000 sd n 465 p 6 ¼ cr
S 1000 z 500 c 16 5/8
B 1500 sd q 480/500 cs 4 7/8
B 2000 Z 550 c vs s n 500 c 7 db
On a block
S 750 u 450 c 19 vs 448 1/4
B 500 u 450 p 21 vs 448 1/4
B 800 z 490 c 18 ½ vs 467 1/4
B 1000 u 500/550 cs 4 1/8
Beans
B 2000 x 1280/1380 cs 11 1/4
S 500 x 1250 c 23 1/8
B 1000n 1180/1220 cs 8 ¼ vs 1169
B 500 x 1350 c 9 5/8
S 750 q 1210 c 13 1/2
B 1500 sd n 1220 c 3 3/4
B 750 x 1200/1250 cs 14 1/2
B 1000 n 1210 c 3 7/8
B 500 n 1140 p 5 ½ vs 1165 1/2
B 200 x 1280 c 18 1/2
B 500 sd n 1210 c 4 1/8
S 1000 x 1150/1120 ps 11
S 1000 u 1170 p 36
S 2500 x 1150/1100 ps 16 3/8
S 1000 x 1200 c 39 to 38 1/2
B 1000 n 1120 p 2 ½ vs 1164 1/2
B 1000 n 1130 p 3 1/47
B 2200 n 1140 p 5 ½ vs 1165 1/2
S 700 q 1270 c 10 ¼ to 9 5/8 vs 1170
B 300 n 1160 p vs s 600 n 1150 p 2 5/8 cr vs 1174 1/2
S 1150 n 1180 c 10 3/8 to 9 7/8
B 300 x 1240 c vs s x 1150 p 3 ½ cr
B 1000 x 1280/1380 cs 10 3/4
S 500 u 1190/1250 cs 15 ½ vs 1173
B 150 u 1170 p vs 300 u 1070 p 17 5/8 db vs 1166
Soymeal
S 150 n 330 c 3.40
B 200 u 310 p 7.30
B 500 z 315p/330c strangles 24.75
S 500 z 320 straddles 30.85 to 30.70
B 500 n 310 p .85 vs 325.0
On a block
S 300 u 300 p 3.60 vs 316.7
Bean oil
B 1000 q 73/68 ps .920 vs 7670
B 250 n 65 p .040
S 500 z 73 straddles 9.780
B 100 v 78 c 2.500
S 400 q 75p/80c strangles 3.390 vs 77.10
B 2000 n 75 p .510 to .760
Wheat
S 300 n 640 p 42 1/8
B 600 n 600/580 ps 8 5/8
B 500 n 610 c 12
B 1500 n 580 p 5 to 6 1/4
On a block
S 350 u 615 c 31 1/8 vs 614 1/4
B 750 u 620 c 29 3/8 vs 614 3/4
Kc wheat
B 500 n 650 c 10 7/8 vs 635
B 250 q 620/580 ps vs s 750 c 5 to 5 5/8 db
B 2000 n 750 c 1
B 450 w1 650 c 1 3/4
Cme spring wheat
S 100 q 645p/730c strangles 23 1/4
Crush
B 100 z 250/200 ps 6
Hogs
Bought 1200 Aug 102 calls paid 1.90 up to 2.525
Bought 900 Aug 80 puts paid .3750
Sold 500 Aug 100/105 call spreads @ 1.45
Sold 250 Feb 80/72 put spread v. 86 calls @ .50
Sold 200 Oct 102 calls @ .55
Bought 150 Aug 87/82 put spread paid .50
Bought 1000 Oct 90/92 call spread paid .575 up to .625
Sold 200 July 98 puts @ 2.2750 down to 1.90
Bought 250 Oct 94/102 call spread 1x2 paid .425
Bought 400 Dec 90 calls paid 1.10 up to 1.250
Bought 450 June 87 puts paid .025
Sold 200 Oct 94/110 call spread 1x2 @ 1.25
Sold 150 June 104/110 call spread @ 1.30
Live Cattle
Bought 300 June 251/253 call spread paid .275
Bought 1000 June 248 puts paid .80 up to 1.40
Bought 600 June 247 calls paid 1.35 up to 2.10
Bought 200 June/July 250/240 call spread paid 2.725 up to 2.75
Sold 300 June 245 puts @ .750
Bought 500 Aug 236 calls paid 7.10 up to 7.60
Bought 200 June/July 250/239 put spread paid 1.225 up to 1.25
Bought 200 June 248 calls paid 1.00 up to 1.60
Bought 150 June 242 puts paid .1250 covered 247.85
Sold 1200 Oct 240 calls @ 4.20 down to 3.825
Sold 800 June 248 straddle @ 2.275 down to 2.200
Bought 400 Aug 235/225 put spread paid 2.40 up to 2.60
Bought 200 July 237/227 put spread paid 2.375 covered 239.10
Bought 200 Oct 240/220 combo paid .975 up to 1.10 bought the put
Feeder Cattle
Sold 400 Oct 370/305 combos @ .40 sold the puts On a Block
Class III Milk
Sold 200 Q227 17.50/15.50 put spread v. 19.50 call (SUM) @ 1.05 down to 1.00
Sources: vols bloomberg
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