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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

The Brazil trade situation is escalating into a clear tariff risk for U.S.–Brazil commerce. USTR has determined that Brazil committed “unreasonable” acts under Section 301, making the issue actionable under U.S. trade law, while still leaving the door open for negotiations. The proposed response is a broad 25% tariff on imports from Brazil, excluding products already covered by Section 232 national security tariffs, such as certain steel, aluminum, or related categories. A hearing scheduled for June 6 will be important because it gives affected industries a chance to push back before final action is taken. For agriculture, the bigger risk is retaliation: Brazil is a major competitor in soybeans, corn, beef, poultry, sugar, ethanol, and coffee, so a tariff fight could create cross-market volatility, especially if Brazil responds with its own barriers or shifts trade policy closer to China.

 

The White House metals tariff adjustment gives some relief to agriculture while still pushing domestic steel and aluminum use. Tariffs on imported farm equipment such as combines and harvesters are being reduced from 25% to 15%, which should help ease some cost pressure for farmers, dealers, and machinery buyers. At the same time, the administration is expanding the 15% tariff category to include more industrial equipment, such as bulldozers and forklifts, from qualifying trade-deal countries. The policy also creates an incentive for foreign manufacturers to source U.S. metals: equipment with at least 85% U.S.-melted/poured steel or U.S.-smelted/cast aluminum can qualify for a lower 10% duty rate. For agriculture, this is modestly supportive on equipment affordability, but the broader message remains protectionist and pro-domestic manufacturing.

 

The Iran/Lebanon headline mix remains highly volatile and contradictory, but the market takeaway is that diplomacy is still alive while military escalation risk remains elevated. President Trump is publicly signaling that talks with Iran are moving quickly and that a ceasefire-extension/Hormuz reopening deal could come within a week, but his comments across ABC, NBC, and CNBC also show frustration with the negotiation process and a willingness to keep pressure on Iran through the Strait of Hormuz blockade. At the same time, Lebanon has become a major pressure point: Trump appears to have directly pushed Netanyahu to avoid a broader Beirut raid, while Iran and Hezbollah-linked officials are warning that Israeli escalation in Lebanon could derail talks and expand the conflict across multiple fronts. The biggest risk for markets is that Iran is tying Hormuz, Lebanon, Gaza, and the broader “resistance axis” together, raising the chance that any Israeli action in Lebanon could trigger retaliation in energy shipping lanes. For crude, freight, and ag inputs, this is not a clean de-escalation story yet: oil may soften on hopes for a deal, but Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threats keep a geopolitical risk premium underneath energy until there is a confirmed ceasefire extension and shipping normalization.

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Overnight option activity 

Corn

B 250 sd q 490/515 cs 4 7/8 

B 250 z 500/550 cs 8 7/8 

B 200 u 550 c 2 ¾ vs 451

B 400 u 420 p 7 to 7 1/8 

B 200 n 450/440 ps 5 3/4

B 500 z 500 c 16 ½ vs 469 3/4

B 100 u 500 c 8 7/8 vs 457

B 250 q 460/490 cs 7 1/8 

B 300 z 550 c 8

 

Beans

B 1000 w1 1190 c 2 ¾ to 3

B 200 n 1140 p 3 to 3 1/8 

S 200 n 1150 p vs b 400 n 1140 p paying 1 3/8 

 

Bean oil

S 100 n 7550 p .550

B 200 u 70/65 ps .800

S 500 z 84 c 1.800 to 1.735

S 200 z 70 c 2.715

S 300 z 76 c 4.000

B 1000 z 65 p 1.500 to 1.615

 

Wheat 

B 200 n 580 p 5 5/8 

B 500 u 570/525 ps 8 3/8 to 8 3/4

 

Open interest changes

Corn

July 490 call buy was closing. Sept 450 put buy vs sale of short sept 470 puts was new.  Sept 500/550 call spread buy and july 465/475 call spread buys were rolling longs.

 

Beans

Nov 1250/1350 call spread buy vs sale of 1130 puts and aug 1190 put sales were new

 

Bean oil

July 80/85 call spread sale and july 77/82 call spread sales were rolling longs....july 80 call sale was closing 

 

Lean hogs

Aug 105 call buys were new

 

Cvol 

Ags 19.30% down .29%

Corn 23.09% down .08% (1 month low)

Beans 14.09% down .54% (1 month low)

Soymeal 18.65% down .52% (3 month low)

Bean oil 24.95% down .36%

Wheat 28.08% down .34% (3 month low)

Feeder cattle 16.26% down .45% (1 month low)

Live cattle 15.41% down .61% (3 month low)

Lean hogs 23.18% up .83%

Class 3 milk 20.02% up .53%

 

Corn

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Beans

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Soymeal

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Bean oil

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Wheat

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Kc wheat

image-20260602055210-7

Miax wheat

image-20260602055210-8

Oats

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Rough rice

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Cotton

image-20260602055210-11

Canola

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Feeder cattle

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Live cattle

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Lean hogs

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  • Grains & Oilseeds

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