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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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Today is last day of the Goldman roll. 

 

The 32k dec 490/530 call spread buy yesterday was new.

 

WASDE is due this morning at 11:00 a.m. Central Time, with the trade looking for only modest changes in the June report. For old-crop U.S. stocks, the average estimates are 2.144 billion bushels of corn, 339 million bushels of soybeans, and 940 million bushels of wheat, all very close to USDA’s May numbers. New-crop stocks are expected at 1.942 billion bushels for corn, 314 million bushels for soybeans, and 760 million bushels for wheat, again suggesting the trade is not positioned for a major balance-sheet reset. The bigger focus may be wheat production, where all-wheat output is expected near 1.566 billion bushels, with HRW around 516 million. South America is also expected to see only small adjustments, with Brazil soybeans near 180.6 MMT and Argentina corn near 61.3 MMT. Overall, expectations lean toward a fairly quiet report, so the market reaction will likely depend on whether USDA makes a surprise demand change or materially adjusts wheat production.

 

Oil share pushed to new highs yesterday across the forward soybean oil/meal product value structure, with the right column showing fresh highs from July through December. July oil share reached 55.5%, August 55.0%, September 54.6%, October 54.3%, and December 53.7%, all well above the middle-column comparison levels near 36.8%–37.0%. The move reinforces that soybean oil continues to command an unusually large share of crush value, driven by strong biofuel/RIN-related demand, tightness in vegetable oil values, and relative weakness in meal. For the crush, this keeps the market’s focus on oil as the primary value driver rather than meal, which is supportive to soybean oil spreads but can leave meal vulnerable if oil continues to carry the board.

 

PPI is due this morning at 7:30 a.m. Central Time. The market will be watching whether producer-level inflation confirms the same pressure seen in CPI, especially in energy, transportation, and trade-service margins. A firmer PPI print would likely keep pressure on rates and the dollar, while a softer core number would help argue that the inflation pressure is still more concentrated than broad-based.

 

President Trump’s latest comments add more uncertainty to the USMCA review process, as he said he is not looking to renew the agreement and argued that Canada and Mexico need to treat the U.S. better. While talks are still continuing, the rhetoric raises the risk that the U.S. uses the renewal deadline as leverage to push for tougher terms on trade deficits, autos, agriculture, energy, and Chinese content in North American supply chains. The agreement does not immediately disappear if it is not renewed in 2026; it would move into annual reviews and remain in place unless a country formally exits, but the political uncertainty alone could weigh on investment decisions and cross-border planning. For customers, the takeaway is that North American trade remains deeply integrated, but the tone from Washington suggests a more confrontational negotiation period ahead.  

 

The latest U.S. strikes on Iran add another layer of geopolitical risk for markets, with CENTCOM saying American forces hit multiple Iranian targets in self-defense after continued Iranian aggression. U.S. officials said the targets were focused on southern Iran and included air defense systems, radar sites, and drone command-and-control units, while President Trump said the U.S. fired 49 Tomahawk missiles and warned Iran to choose between a new deal or more military action. Iran disputed Trump’s claim that Iranian officials contacted him asking for the bombing to stop, saying no direct contact occurred and that Tehran would respond militarily. For customers, the main takeaway is that the conflict remains fluid and difficult to handicap, with military escalation still in play and any disruption risk tied to crude oil, shipping lanes, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment.

 

Merz’s comments highlight Europe’s push to defend open global markets while also tightening enforcement around what it views as fair trade. The key point is that Germany has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the current global trading system, with its export-heavy economy built around autos, machinery, chemicals, and industrial goods. When Germany talks about “fair rules,” it is also trying to preserve a structure that supports its large trade surplus and access to foreign markets. For customers, the takeaway is that Europe is unlikely to abandon free trade language, but it will become more aggressive in defending its own industries and trade advantages under the banner of fairness.

 

image-20260611054153-1

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

B 500 q 440 c 11 1/8 

B 100 v 500 c 7 1/2

S 500 q 520 c 1 1/8 

B 100 u 550 c 1 1/2

S 800 z 500 c 10 ½ to 10

S 100 z 495 c 11 1/8 

B 200 n 430 c 2 3/4

 

Beans

S 400 n 1170 c 1 ½ to 1 3/8 

B 250 sd n 1150 c 8 5/8

 

Soymeal

B 200 z 285 p 5.15

S 125 n 300 p 2.90 vs 303.5

S 125 n 300p/320c strangles 3.70 vs 303.5

S 275 q 300p/320c strangles 8.65 vs 304.2

 

Bean oil

B 250 n 72 p .400

 

Open interest changes

corn

Dec 490/530 call spread buy and july 415 put sales were new.....july 440 call buy was closing 

 

Beans

Sept 1170/1250 call spread buy and short aug 1160/1200 1x2 call spread buys were new

 

Soymeal

Dec 300p/315c strangle buy was new

 

Lean hogs

Oct 50 put buy and dec 80 call buys were new

 

Cvol

Ags 20.90% down .45%

Corn 25.93% down 1.06%

Beans 16.72% down .21%

Soymeal 20.95% up .88%

Bean oil 27.08% up .50%

Wheat 28.79% up .49%

Feeder cattle 16.56% down .70%

Live cattle 16.20% down .61%

Lean hogs 24.84% down .16%

Class 3 milk 18.45% down .18%

 

Corn

image-20260611054153-2

Beans

image-20260611054153-3

Soymeal

image-20260611054153-4

Bean oil

image-20260611054153-5

Wheat

image-20260611054153-6

Kc wheat

image-20260611054153-7

Miax wheat

image-20260611054153-8

Oats

image-20260611054153-9

Rough rice

image-20260611054153-10

Cotton

image-20260611054153-11

Canola

image-20260611054153-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260611054153-13

Live cattle 

image-20260611054153-14

Lean hogs

image-20260611054153-15

 

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