Most Fed-watchers expecting Kevin Warsh to withhold his dot would be an early signal that the new Fed Chair wants to move away from heavy forward guidance and reduce the market’s reliance on the dot plot. The practical impact is that the June SEP could become harder to interpret because the Chair’s own rate-path view may not be visible, leaving markets to focus more on the median dots from other officials, the statement language and Warsh’s press conference tone. For markets, this adds uncertainty around Fed communication: it may help Warsh avoid being boxed into a rate forecast early in his tenure, but it also means every inflation, jobs and energy-price data point could carry more weight in repricing rate expectations. Reuters also notes Warsh may skip submitting a dot or use the meeting to reshape Fed communication policy, making this a key credibility test in his first FOMC meeting.
The G7 is trying to reduce China’s leverage over rare earths and critical minerals by setting a target that no single country should supply more than 60% of G7 imports by 2030. The plan would include binding quotas for companies in certain industrial sectors, with defense manufacturers likely a major focus, and a new platform to boost supply from recycling and new mining projects. The key market angle is that China still controls a dominant share of critical-mineral refining, giving Beijing leverage over defense, EVs, batteries, chips, wind turbines, and other strategic supply chains. This is a long-term bullish headline for non-China mining, refining, recycling, and processing investment, but it is not a quick fix because permitting, financing, environmental rules, and refining capacity take years to build.
LeBlanc’s comments suggest talks with USTR Greer are still moving in the right direction, with both sides staying engaged and planning another follow-up next week. For markets, the key takeaway is that Canada-U.S. trade tensions are not resolved, but the tone remains cooperative rather than confrontational, which is helpful for broader North American trade sentiment. It also fits the recent pattern of the U.S. trying to manage multiple trade disputes without allowing one negotiation to spill into a larger escalation.
The U.S. decision to delay blacklisting DeepSeek, CXMT and more than 100 other Chinese firms shows Washington is trying to keep the broader China trade relationship from escalating, even while national-security concerns remain high. The practical read-through is that export-control enforcement is being tempered by diplomacy: these firms were reportedly cleared for the Commerce Department’s Entity List, which would restrict U.S. companies from supplying them, but the administration has held off as it tries to preserve the fragile U.S.-China truce. For markets, this is a modest risk-on headline for China trade and tech sentiment, but it also highlights the ongoing tension between national security policy and trade negotiations.
China’s policy message is that the PBoC is trying to modernize liquidity management and support yuan internationalization without returning to the old model of rapid credit expansion. Pan’s comments point to more precise control of short-term money-market rates, including expanded overnight reverse repo operations and a rate corridor around the 7-day reverse repo, while also giving overseas institutions better access to yuan liquidity and allowing selected banks to conduct offshore FX business in Shanghai’s free trade zone. At the same time, Beijing is signaling caution: officials said it is difficult and unnecessary for credit growth to maintain its prior pace, while regulators are focused on local-government debt resolution, small and mid-sized financial institution risks, and preventing systemic stress. The market read-through is modestly supportive for Chinese bonds and yuan infrastructure, but not a broad stimulus signal; Beijing is trying to improve liquidity transmission, open financial channels selectively, and direct capital toward strategic industries while keeping leverage and financial risks contained.
The U.S.-Iran framework is increasingly looking like a near-term bearish energy headline because it would allow Iran to sell oil and fuel immediately after signing, with waivers covering the banking, shipping, insurance and transportation needed to move barrels, as long as Tehran complies with commitments on Hormuz navigation and the nuclear framework. The bigger issue is execution: several reports suggest key nuclear and sanctions details still need to be negotiated over a 60-day window, while U.S. officials remain divided on whether Iran will honor the deal and Iranian sources are already denying parts of the reported text. For markets, the agreement lowers the immediate Strait of Hormuz risk premium and pressures crude, diesel and soybean oil, but traders are unlikely to fully remove geopolitical risk until the deal is signed, oil actually flows, and Iran proves compliance.
Overnight option activity
Corn
B 1000 sd n 450 c 3 5/8 to 3 7/8
B 200 z 490 c vs s v 450 c 7 ¼ cr
B 2000 v 440/450/460 call trees collecting 10 7/8 vs 442
S 300 z 415 p 12 ¼ to 12 1/8
B 500 u 470 c 5 3/4
B 300 z 470/500 cs 6 3/4
S 150 z 500 c 9 1/2
Beans
S 100 n 1140 p 11 7/8
B 1375 n 1120/1150 cs 13 ½ to 13 3/4
B 750 n 1150/1180 cs 4 ¾ to 5
B 100 x 1320/1400 cs 5 1/8
S 700 x 1110 p 28 to 26
S 500 x 1120 p 32 to 30 1/2
S 500 x 1100 p 23 1/4
B 100 h 1180/1200 cs 7 1/8
S 250 n 1120 c 23
B 600 x 1200/1250 cs 11 1/8
B 500 sd n 1150 c 5 ½ to 5 5/8
B 1000 n 1150 c vs s 1000 n 1120 p 1/8 cr to 1/8 db vs 1133 3/4
Soymeal
B 350 n 310/320 cs vs s 300 p .20 to .50 db
Bean oil
S 200 z 62 p 1.950
Wheat
B 100 n 610 c 7 1/2
S 250 n 575 p 1 7/8
On a block
B 300 q 660 c 8 1/8
Open interest changes
Corn
Dec 480/500 cs buy was rolling longs....short july 440 put buy, short july 455 call buy, dec 430 put buy, july sept -12 cso put buy and july 455 put buys were closing.
Beans
March 1250 call buy, march 1250/1350 call spread buy, nov 1000 put sale, nov 1200/1300 call spread buy and sept 1170/1250 call spread buys were new....nov 1180/1240 call spread sale and nov 1160/1220 call spread sales were rolling shorts.
Soymeal
Aug 310/300 put spread sale was rolling shorts....march 295/285 put spread sale was new.
Bean oil
Aug 81 call buy and aug 82 call buys were closing.
Wheat
July 580 put sale was closing...sept 650/700 call spread buy was new
Cvol
Ags 22.48% up .56% (1 month high)
Corn 31.41% up .79% (1 year high)
Beans 20.27% up 2.12% (1 month high)
Soymeal 23.53% up 2.41% (1 month high)
Bean oil 26.29% down .03%
Wheat 29.45% up .25%
Feeder cattle 14.22% down 1.70% (6 month low)
Live cattle 15.30% unchanged
Lean hogs 22.57% down .30%
Class 3 milk 19.12% up .27%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
Bean oil
Wheat
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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