USDA crop progress leaned mostly neutral-to-bearish for corn and soybeans because both crops remain in solid shape and development is on schedule to slightly ahead. Corn was 97% emerged, right on last year and average, with 68% good/excellent and 5% silking, slightly ahead of normal. Soybeans were also strong, with 93% emerged, ahead of last year and average, 66% good/excellent, and 9% blooming, also ahead of normal. Winter wheat remains the weak spot fundamentally, with only 26% good/excellent, but harvest is moving fast at 40% complete, well ahead of last year and the 5-year average, which adds harvest pressure. Spring wheat is in better shape at 54% good/excellent and normal heading progress. Cotton is mostly on pace, with 92% planted, 27% squaring, and 53% good/excellent. Overall, the report does not add much weather risk to corn or beans and keeps the market focused on upcoming July weather.
This CFTC report is bearish flow for corn and soybeans, but not fully bearish fundamentally because commercials were buying/reducing shorts into the fund selling. Corn is the weakest read: managed money sold about 41k contracts and moved to a 46k net short, while open interest jumped nearly 96k, suggesting fresh short selling rather than just liquidation. That keeps corn vulnerable unless weather or exports force short covering. Soybeans are still fund-long, but managed money cut length by nearly 38k contracts, dropping to about 53k net long, so beans are losing momentum but are not washed out yet. The supportive part is producer/merchant buying/reduced selling in both corn and beans, which shows commercial demand stepping in on weakness. Soymeal is the biggest liquidation signal, with funds selling about 35k contracts and cutting the net long to only 17k, while open interest rose, a negative technical setup. Soybean oil remains heavily fund-long at about 123k, even after some selling, so it still carries liquidation risk if energy/palm oil weaken. Wheat looks better than row crops from a positioning standpoint: Chicago wheat funds covered shorts, and KC wheat funds bought, which gives wheat more short-covering potential than corn or beans. Overall, the report shows funds pressing corn, reducing bean/meal length, and still holding a large soybean oil long — bearish short-term flow, but with commercial buying underneath that could support breaks.
Corn remains the stronger export story, with inspections of 57.3 million bushels down from last week but still leaving year-to-date inspections 25.2% ahead of last year, showing broad and steady demand. Soybeans were weaker, with inspections of only 8.9 million bushels, down sharply from the prior week, and year-to-date inspections still 19.3% behind last year. China showing up for soybeans is a positive headline, but the overall bean pace remains too light to call bullish. Bottom line: corn demand remains supportive on breaks, while soybeans still need a much stronger and more consistent export program to change the tone.
EU and China are set for another round of trade talks next week, with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic meeting Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels on June 29. The meeting comes as Europe grows more frustrated with its large goods trade deficit with China, reported around 360 billion euros, and the surge of Chinese exports into the bloc. EU leaders are pushing a two-track strategy: keep dialogue open with Beijing while also developing stronger trade tools to defend member states against unfair practices and trade imbalances. The tone points to rising EU-China trade tension, but for now Brussels is still trying to manage the dispute through talks before moving more aggressively.
Corn
B 500 u 460 c 4 7/8 vs 420 1/4
B 1000 n 415 p 4 5/8 to 4 ¾ vs 414
B 1000 n 420 c 1 1/2
S 800 sd q 450 c 10 3/8 to 10 1/4
B 2000 u 450/470 cs 3 ½ to 3 5/8
S 1000 n 415 c 4 1/2
B 250 z 460/500 cs vs s 420/400 ps 2 3/8 db
S 600 sd q 450 c 12
B 100 u 540 c 1 1/4
S 100 n 435/425 ps 9 1/8
B 400 u 510 c 2
B 200 z 410 p 10 1/2
S 300 z 475 c 13 ¼ vs 439 1/2
S 1500 z 400 p 7 1/8
B 500 sd u 445 p vs s u 430 p 1 5/8 cr
B 500 q 430 straddles 29 ¾ vs 421
B 100 u 425 straddles 35 1/4
B 100 sd u 515 c 3 1/8
B 500 u 580 c 3/4
S 2000 u 420 p 17
B 3000 sd u 470/450 ps vs s u 450/430 ps paying even
B 250 h 500/600 cs vs s 420 p 1/8 cr
B 200 z 450 c 21 vs 441 1/2
S 200 q 400p/450c 10 1/4
On a block
B 500 u 390 p 4 7/8 vs 421 ¾
Beans
S 1000 x 1280 c 11 ¼ to 10 3/8
S 500 x 1200 c vs b 1000 x 1300 c 7 3/8 vs vs 1143 3/4
S 250 qx even cso p 5
S 250 q 1240 c and 1260 c 22 to 21 7/8 cr vs 1143
B 100 n27 1100/1080 ps 6 3/8
B 500 n 1100 p 1 to 1 1/8
B 2000 u 1300 c 2 3/8 to 2 1/2
S 500 n 1120/1140 cs 7 ¾ down to 6 3/4
B 500 sd n 1140 c 10
S 300 x 1300 c 9 1/2
S 750 q 1130 p 25
S 750 x 1280 c 11 ¾ vs 1145 1/2
B 500 n 1110 p 3 ½
S 750 q 1130 c 20 5/8
B 600 q 1110 p 14 1/2
B 2000 q 1220 c vs 1128 ½ against s 1000 x 1200 c vs 1144 ¼ collecting 20 7/8 to 20 1/2
B 1000 x 1220/1320 cs 14 to 14 1/8
Soymeal
B 100 z 400 c 1.20
B 100 h 320/360 cs 4.95
B 650 n 305/310 cs .70
B 1000 u 310/350 cs 4.85
S 200 v 335 c 3.15
S 200 v 340 c 2.65
S 400 q 305/300 ps 2.90
B 1000 u 310/360 cs 5.00
B 1100 v 300 c vs s v 280 p 8.00 db
Bean oil
B 100 v 70 c 2.200
S 1000 u 76 c .660 to .655
B 2000 v 72/78 cs .980 vs 6710
S 500 n 70 c 1.150
B 200 u 75 c vs s 400 u 80 c .160 db
S 400 n 70 p .445
B 300 z 75/80 cs .720
B 400 h 65 p 4.140 vs 6635
S 250 n 70/68 ps .270
B 800 q 70 c 1.750 to 1.845
B 500 z 70/75 cs vs s 60 p paying even
B 600 n 69 p .220
On a block
S 800 z 65 p 3.150 vs 6670
Wheat
S 200 n 620 c 2 ½ vs 601
S 300 n 620 c 2 3/8 to 2 1/8
B 200 q 630 c 14
S 500 n 600 p 9 to 8 1/2
S 400 u 590p/625c strangles 38 to 37 ½ vs 610
S 1000 z 660p/730c strangles 74 5/8 to 73 7/8 vs 626 3/4
Kc wheat
S 200 q and u 650 c 43 ¾ cr vs 643
S 150 n 660/650 ps 8
Hogs
Bought 100 Aug 104/96 put spread paid 5.45
Sold 200 July 100/102 call spreads 1x2 @ Even.
Sold 150 Aug 106 calls @ .50 down to .4250
Live Cattle
Bought 500 Aug 229 puts paid .550
Sold 500 Aug 230 puts @ .625 down to .60
Bought 200 Aug 244/240 put spread paid 1.05 up to 1.075
Sold 100 Aug 240/220 put spread v. 260 calls @ 3.275
Sold 750 Dec 250 calls @ 5.325 down to 4.65
Sold 250 Oct 248 calls @ 4.25 down to 4.00
Bought 500 Oct 244 calls paid 5.625 up to 5.875
Sold 100 July 250 calls 1.05 covered 247.00
Bought 200 July 247/241 put spread paid 1.525 up to 1.55
Bought 700 Dec 232 puts paid 5.80 up to 6.05
Sold 100 Feb 250 calls @ 5.85
Bought 300 Oct 230 puts paid 3.65 up to 3.75
Sold 200 Dec 238/232 puts spreads @ 2.225
Sold 200 July 246/248 call spread @ .975
Feeder Cattle
Bought 400 Aug 350 puts paid 2.40 up to 2.50
Bought 100 Aug 352 puts paid 2.875 up to 2.90
Bought 100 Oct 440 calls paid .4250
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