COT and crop progress out today after the close.
Ltd for all July grain options is Friday.
China’s move to add 10 U.S. firms, including USA Rare Earths, to its export control list and target 46 U.S. companies in government procurement is another sign that trade tensions are shifting from tariffs into strategic supply chains. The message from Beijing is that it will push back against U.S. restrictions by using its own leverage in rare earths, procurement access, and industrial policy. Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang’s comments frame China as a stable supply-chain partner, but the action itself reinforces the risk of fragmentation. For markets, this keeps geopolitical risk elevated and is supportive to the idea that critical minerals, defense, technology, and trade policy will remain linked, with potential spillover into broader U.S.-China negotiations, including agriculture.
Soybean oil’s decline on record volume of 497,000 contracts is a major technical signal. The size of the volume shows the break was not a thin-market move; it reflected broad participation, likely including fund liquidation, spread unwinds, and commercial pricing. Heavy volume on a down day usually confirms downside momentum and keeps the chart defensive until the market can stabilize. However, record-volume breaks can also mark exhaustion if futures fail to follow through lower in the next session. For now, the message is that soybean oil remains under heavy pressure, with the market needing either stronger energy, palm oil support, fresh export demand, or a technical recovery to slow the liquidation.
USTR Greer’s trip to India and Uzbekistan keeps trade policy front and center, with the India stop focused on advancing the U.S.-India joint statement into a broader bilateral trade agreement. The key point is that India appears to be looking for a tariff advantage versus rival suppliers before moving forward with the delayed pact, which means agriculture, energy, industrial goods, and strategic supply chains could all be part of the bargaining. For markets, this is potentially supportive if it leads to improved U.S. export access into India, but the timing and details still matter. Until a deal is enacted, it remains more of a policy headline than confirmed demand.
The Switzerland talks produced conflicting headlines but a cautiously constructive diplomatic takeaway. Iran initially appeared to halt or protest the negotiations after Trump threatened renewed strikes tied to Hezbollah/Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz, but later reports suggested the delegation remained at the Burgenstock site and continued work on a joint statement. Qatar and Pakistan framed the first session as positive, with technical talks continuing, a 60-day roadmap toward a final deal, a Lebanon de-confliction cell, and discussions around keeping Hormuz open. The potential easing of Iranian oil sanctions, release of frozen funds, resumed Kharg Island oil loading, and increased tanker traffic point to improved oil-flow risk, but the situation remains fragile because Iran is still linking Hormuz access to Lebanon ceasefire compliance and oil-waiver execution. For markets, this is bearish energy if diplomacy holds, but risk premium stays elevated due to Trump’s threats, Iran’s Strait leverage, and the fresh Gulf of Aden security incident.
Major investors are warning that Fed Chair Warsh’s idea of ending forward guidance could make the Treasury market more volatile. Without clearer signals on the likely direction of rates, bond investors would have less certainty around Fed policy, which could force markets to price in a wider range of outcomes. That uncertainty could lift Treasury risk premiums and push borrowing costs higher for consumers, businesses, and the government. For markets, the message is that less Fed guidance may increase flexibility for policymakers, but it could also mean bigger swings in rates, the dollar, and broader risk assets.
USDA’s report of three new screwworm cases, bringing total domestic detections to 15, keeps livestock-health risk elevated for cattle and other animals. The market impact is less about immediate demand and more about potential supply disruption if the outbreak spreads, including quarantines, added inspections, transport delays, and tighter livestock movement. For now, the key is whether cases stay contained or move into larger production areas, because broader spread would increase costs and add risk premium to cattle markets.
China left its benchmark lending rates unchanged in June, with the 1-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.0% and the 5-year Loan Prime Rate at 3.5%, both matching expectations and prior levels. The hold suggests Beijing is not moving aggressively on rate cuts yet, despite ongoing concerns around growth, property-sector weakness, and trade pressure. For markets, the unchanged rates are neutral on the headline, but they reinforce the idea that China is relying more on targeted stimulus, trade policy, and liquidity tools rather than broad rate cuts for now.
Overnight option activity
Corn
B 1000 q 430 p 18 ¼ to 19
B 250 z 550 c 4
S 400 q 445 c 8 to 7 7/8
S 350 u 450 c 10 1/8 to 10
S 500 u 410 p 10 7/8
Beans
B 250 x 1400/1600 cs 3 1/8
S 100 x 1150/110 ps 24 1/4
B 500 n 1130 p 10 1/8 to 10 1/4
B 500 x 1120/1100 ps 8 ½ to 8 3/4
Bean oil
B 300 v 78 c .750
B 150 u 6250 p .710
S 2000 z 65 p 3.430 to 3.105
Wheat
S 200 n 590 p 5
Open interest changes
Corn
Sept 550/600 call spread sale, march 640 call sale, march 600 call sale and march 520/560 call spread sales were closing. Dec 490/530 call spread buy and dec 450/500 call spread buys were new.
Beans
Sept 1250/1400 call spread sale and july 1140 call buys were closing.
Soymeal
Dec 300p/315c strangle buy was closing.
Bean oil
Dec 75 call buy, aug 70 call buy, oct 5850 put sale, aug 70 call sale and july 69 put sales were closing...sept 80/90 call spread sale, aug 6750 put buy and dec 90 call buys were closing. Dec 70/64 put spread sale was rolling a long.
Wheat
Dec 700 call buy and march 860 call buys were new....sept 660 call buy was closing.
Cvol
Ags 22.41% down 1.01%
Corn 31.98% down 2.41%
Beans 18.61% down 2.10%
Soymeal 21.43% down 1.84%
Bean oil 26.42% up .71%
Wheat 29.90% down 2.40%
Feeder cattle 14.37% up .10%
Live cattle 15.34% up .37%
Lean hogs 21.54% down .55%
Class 3 milk 19.74% up .01%
Corn
Beans
Soymeal
BEAN OIL
WHEAT
Kc wheat
Miax wheat
Oats
Rough rice
Cotton
Canola
Feeder cattle
Live cattle
Lean hogs
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