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CBOT Grains Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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Thursday morning’s 7:30 a.m. data dump will be important for macro direction, with Core PCE the key number because it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A hotter reading would likely support higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, which can pressure commodities, while a softer reading would be more supportive for risk assets and ag markets. Personal income and spending will show whether the consumer is holding up, durable goods will give a read on business demand but can be volatile, and the final Q1 GDP revision is more backward-looking. For corn and soybeans, these reports are not the main driver compared with weather, exports, and crop conditions, but a surprise could influence fund flow and set the tone early Thursday.

 

Ltd for all July grain options is Friday. 

 

President Trump said the U.S. “needs a low interest rate,” keeping pressure on the Fed for easier policy. He also said he spoke with oil companies on Wednesday and argued they are not lowering gasoline prices enough even though oil prices have come down. Trump warned that oil companies “will be in trouble” if they are gouging consumers. The market takeaway is that the White House wants lower borrowing costs and lower pump prices, which is aimed at easing financial pressure on consumers, but it also adds political pressure on the Fed, oil companies, and potentially refinery/energy margins.

 

Marchioni’s comments are a calming signal for money markets. The key point is that the Fed’s updated language around operating in an ample reserves framework should not be read as a major policy shift or a sign that liquidity management is changing immediately. Instead, the NY Fed is emphasizing that the system still has flexibility: the Fed can continue managing reserves, repo operations, and balance-sheet runoff as conditions require. For markets, this reduces the risk that traders overreact to the wording change by assuming the Fed is preparing a tighter reserve regime. The takeaway is steady policy plumbing, not a new liquidity shock.

 

The Fed’s latest stress test is a confidence-building signal for the financial system. All 32 large banks stayed above minimum capital requirements even under a severe hypothetical recession that included 10% unemployment, major real-estate stress, and nearly 708 billion in projected losses. The key takeaway is that bank capital only fell from 12.8% to 11.2%, a 1.6 percentage-point decline, which leaves the system still well capitalized and able to keep lending. For markets, this leans supportive for bank stocks, credit availability, and overall risk sentiment, especially as several large banks are already moving toward higher dividends and buybacks. It is not a direct driver for corn, beans, or energy, but it reduces systemic-risk concerns and supports the broader “soft landing / stable credit” backdrop. The Fed also kept capital requirements steady for now and will reset stress capital buffers after the 2027 test as it adjusts the testing process.  

 

image-20260625044016-1

 

 

Overnight option activity 

Corn

B 100 z 480 c 9 5/8 vs 432 1/2

S 100 q 435 c 6

S 100 z 505 c 6

S 400 z 460/440 ps 13 1/2

S 600 z 470/460 ps 7 1/2

S 150 h 505/475 ps 23

B 100 u 430/460 cs 6 1/4

S 3000 q 425 c 10 1/8 to 9

B 3000 u 430 c 11 to 11 1/2

B 1000 u 460 c 5 to 5 1/8

B 500 sd u 470/515 cs 4 5/8

 

Beans

B 1000 u 1200/1300 cs 6 ¾ to 6 7/8 

 

Open interest changes

Corn

Dec 400 put sale and short aug 440 call sales were new. Dec 500 call buy and aug 410 put buys were closing...dec 480/500 call spread buy was rolling a long.

 

Beans

Aug 1220 call sale was closing....sept 1130 put sale was new.

 

Soymeal

Oct 270 put buy was new

 

Bean oil

Oct 68 call buy was new

 

Kc wheat

Sept 650/700 call spread buy was new

 

Lean hogs

Oct 84 call buy and oct 88/100 call spread buy on blocks were new.

 

Cvol

Ags 21.35% down .18%

Corn 30.60% up .59%

Beans 16.41% down .44%

Soymeal 20.37% down .67%

Bean oil 25.38% down .57%

Wheat 26.95% down .46%

Feeder cattle 14.41% down .23%

Live cattle 15.07% down .61%

Lean hogs 21.60% down .03%

Class 3 milk 18.57% down .66%

 

 

 

Corn

image-20260625044016-2

Beans

image-20260625044016-3

Soymeal

image-20260625044016-4

Bean oil

image-20260625044016-5

Wheat

image-20260625044016-6

Kc wheat

image-20260625044016-7

Miax wheat

image-20260625044016-8

Oats

image-20260625044016-9

Rough rice

image-20260625044016-10

Cotton

image-20260625044016-11

Canola

image-20260625044016-12

Feeder cattle

image-20260625044016-13

Live cattle

image-20260625044016-14

Lean hogs

image-20260625044016-15

 

 

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