
Daily Coffee Report 8/10/26
Daily coffee report

- Coffee
By: CommodityNetwork Team - USA, CommodityNetwork USA
CEPEA: Favored by Climate, Arabica Prices in Brazil Rise Sharply in July
CoffeeNEtwork (New York) – According to the latest report from Brazil’s Center of Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), July was marked by the significant increase in Arabica coffee prices. Earlier this month, prices were boosted by forecasts of cold and drought in the coffee regions of Brazil. Although lower humidity is ideal for harvesting, many growers were already concerned about the 2022/23 crop (positive biennial), due to the dry weather since the end of March. However, it was at the end of July that price hikes intensified, after the occurrence of frosts in most of the producing regions.
In this scenario, the CEPEA/ESALQ Indicator for Arabica type 6 operated above R$1,000/60 kg bag between July 22 and 30, reaching, on the 26th, the highest real daily price since January 2012, when closing at R$1,067.27/bag. Between June 30th and July 30th, the increase was a significant 170.23 Reais per bag (or 20.1%).
For Robusta, prices also rose sharply in July, and the CEPEA/ESALQ Indicator of type 6 sieve 13 above closed on June 30th at R$ 580.56/bag, an increase of 80.12 Reais per bag (or 16 %) in relation to June 30th. On July 28, specifically, the Indicator closed above R$600/bag, the highest real level since December 2017.
According to researchers from Cepea, the variety's prices were driven by external gains and the retraction of sellers in the national spot. The futures, in turn, were influenced by concerns about the global supply of coffee in 2022/21, after the frosts in Brazil, although the Robusta crops were not affected by the phenomenon.
Alexis Rubinstein
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Daily coffee report


August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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