China sharply increased imports of Brazilian beef in January, with shipments up about 35% year over year to 123,200 tons representing nearly 47% of Brazil’s total beef exports by both volume and value and reinforcing China as Brazil’s dominant buyer. Total Brazilian beef exports reached a January record of 264,000 tons up 26.1% from a year earlier, while export revenue surged 40.2% to $1.404 billion. The United States was the second-largest destination at roughly 29,900 tons, and together China and the U.S. accounted for about 60% of Brazil’s beef export value. The figures highlight China’s growing leverage over Brazil’s beef sector, cap upside for U.S. beef exports to China, intensify competition in third-country markets, and support global cattle prices while potentially pressuring U.S. domestic beef values if imports rise.
The February WASDE left U.S. corn production and yield unchanged, with the 2025/26 crop still pegged at 17.021 billion bushels and yield at 186.5 bpa, but made a modestly supportive demand-side adjustment. U.S. corn ending stocks were reduced to 2.127 billion bushels from 2.227 billion in January, driven by a 100 million bushel increase in exports, while domestic use categories, including feed and ethanol, were left unchanged. Globally, world corn ending stocks fell to 289 million metric tons from 290.9 million previously, reinforcing a slightly tighter global balance sheet. In soybeans, U.S. ending stocks were held at 350 million bushels, offering no new surprise, while wheat ending stocks came in at 931 million bushels, keeping wheat burdensome. Overall, the report leaned mildly supportive for corn on lower stocks and higher exports, neutral for soybeans, and still heavy for wheat.
U.S. retail sales were a clear downside surprise across the board. Headline sales were flat versus expectations for a solid gain, while sales excluding autos also printed 0.0% instead of the expected increase. Most notably, the control group—which feeds directly into GDP—fell 0.1% when the market was looking for a strong positive reading. Together, this points to a meaningful slowdown in underlying consumer momentum, suggesting demand is softening beyond autos and weather noise, and it reinforces the narrative that growth is cooling as higher rates continue to bite.
The United States has stopped supporting climate-linked lending at the IMF, voting against or abstaining from financing programs it had previously backed. The shift, tied to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Trump administration, reflects a broader move away from participation in multilateral climate initiatives. While the U.S. does not hold a formal veto, its roughly 16.5% voting share gives the decision real weight and could influence the IMF’s review of its Resilience and Sustainability Trust later this year.
Coca-Cola’s guidance was essentially in line with expectations. Management projected mid-single-digit organic revenue growth of about 4–5% and EPS growth of roughly 7–8% for 2026, supported by continued pricing power, steady global demand, and manageable currency effects. However, the outlook did not point to a meaningful acceleration in volumes or growth, reinforcing a steady, defensive earnings profile rather than a bullish surprise, which contributed to the muted to slightly negative market reaction.
China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee will hold its 21st session on February 25–26 in Beijing. The meeting is expected to address legislative and policy matters and can provide signals on near-term regulatory and economic priorities.
Hogs
Bought 500 April 94/99 strangle paid 3.575
Bought 400 April 90/88 put spread paid .325
Sold 200 April 94 puts @ 2.00
Sold 300 Feb 88 puts @ 1.15 down to 1.075
Bought 150 April 90 puts paid .90 up to .925
Sold 150 June 96 puts @ .975 down to .9
Bought 300 June 100 puts paid 1.50 up to 1.55
Bought 100 March 95 puts paid 1.425 up to 1.475
Bought 100 Feb 88 puts paid 1.05 up to 1.10
Bought 300 June 104 puts paid 2.525 covered 109.725
Bought 600 Feb 86 puts paid .05
Live Cattle
Sold 350 April 240 calls @ 4.65 down 4.450
Sold 250 March 238/245 call spread @ 2.625
Sold 400 June 220 puts @ 3.725 down to 3.70
Sold 800 March 238/245 call spread @ 2.45 down to 2.40
Bought 1000 April 210/190 put spreads paid .45
Sold 150 March 230 puts paid 1.40 down to 1.35
Bought 400 April 230/223 put spreads paid 1.30
Sold 125 April 236/226 put spreads @ 2.825 down to 2.80
Feeder Cattle
Bought 200 March 310 puts paid .525
Sold 150 March 350 puts @ 3.525 down to 3.50
Sold 200 March 380/390 call spread @ 1.45
| Lean Hogs | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LHG6 | 86.850 | -0.250 | 87 | 5.4 | -0.40 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 0.75 | 13.73 | 8 |
| LHH6 | 95.500 | -1.225 | 96 | 19.4 | -0.20 | 1.80 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 16.98 | 31 |
| LHJ6 | 95.500 | -1.225 | 96 | 17.2 | -0.20 | 1.80 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 16.98 | 66 |
| LHK6 | 99.525 | -0.850 | 100 | 18.0 | -0.20 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 0.90 | 14.41 | 97 |
| LHM6 | 108.900 | -0.900 | 108 | 18.5 | -0.10 | 1.30 | 1.27 | 0.86 | 12.59 | 126 |
| Live Cattle | | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| LCH6 | 237.425 | -0.775 | 237 | 16.2 | -0.60 | 1.95 | 2.42 | 2.25 | 15.04 | 24 |
| LCJ6 | 237.425 | -0.775 | 237 | 16.3 | -0.60 | 1.95 | 2.44 | 2.25 | 15.04 | 51 |
| LCK6 | 233.800 | -0.525 | 234 | 16.5 | -0.50 | 1.88 | 2.43 | 2.05 | 13.93 | 80 |
| LCM6 | 233.800 | -0.525 | 234 | 16.3 | -0.40 | 1.88 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 13.93 | 115 |
| LCQ6 | 232.050 | -0.525 | 232 | 15.4 | -0.30 | 1.85 | 2.25 | 1.95 | 13.34 | 178 |
| Feeder Cattle | | | | | | | | | |
| Month | Futures | Change | Strike | Implied Vol | Change in IV | Futures Range | Implied BE | Realized BE | 20D Historic Vol | Days to Exp |
| FCH6 | 364.775 | -2.675 | 364 | 16.3 | -0.90 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 16.31 | 45 |
| FCJ6 | 361.275 | -1.925 | 362 | 17.4 | -0.60 | 4.10 | 3.96 | 3.73 | 16.37 | 80 |
| FCK6 | 356.775 | -1.000 | 356 | 17.9 | -0.60 | 3.83 | 4.02 | 3.60 | 16.04 | 101 |
| FCQ6 | 356.150 | -0.800 | 356 | 17.5 | -0.40 | 3.63 | 3.93 | 3.39 | 15.10 | 199 |
| FCU6 | 354.300 | -0.750 | 354 | 17.1 | -0.80 | 3.55 | 3.82 | 3.29 | 14.75 | 227 |
sources:
news bloomberg
options data globex
vols bloomberg
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