Tuesday’s APHIS update on New World Screwworm showed 40 active cases in Mexico’s border state of Tamaulipas, along with 2 cases in Nuevo León, keeping animal health risks concentrated near the U.S. border and on the market’s radar.
Wholesale boxed beef prices weakened again in Wednesday morning trade, with the Choice/Select spread widening further into inversion at $4.74. Choice fell $1.21 to $381.53, while Select slipped 7 cents to $386.26, maintaining its premium. On the supply side, Tuesday’s federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 113,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 211,000—down 6,000 head from last week (after a revised Monday) and 15,921 head below the same week last year, reinforcing tighter year-over-year availability despite steady near-term throughput.
The pork market softened in Wednesday morning trade, with the USDA carcass cutout down 72 cents to $97.10/cwt as weakness across most primals outweighed modest strength in loins and butts. On the supply side, Tuesday’s federally inspected hog slaughter was estimated at 497,000 head, bringing the weekly total to 864,000—down 122,000 from last week and 110,441 below the same week last year, reflecting a lighter production pace that continues to run well under year-ago levels.
Bloomberg survey points to steady but unspectacular demand ahead of the USDA export sales report, with corn expected around 1.19 MMT, slightly below last week but still strong versus last year, keeping exports as a key support in the balance sheet. Soybean sales near 388k tons suggest stabilization rather than strength during Brazil’s peak export window, while soybean meal remains firm enough to reinforce solid global protein demand and ongoing crush support, and soybean oil exports stay minimal. Wheat sales are modestly improved year-over-year but still not indicative of the U.S. gaining significant global share. Overall, the data reinforces a market structure defined by steady corn demand, rangebound soybeans under seasonal pressure, and strength driven more by products and crush economics than outright export surges.
U.S. ethanol stocks rose modestly to 26.053 million barrels, coming in slightly below expectations, while production jumped to 1.116 million barrels per day—well above survey estimates and continuing to run ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA targets. At the same time, blender demand softened slightly on the week, allowing inventories to build despite still running below year-ago levels. Overall, the report leans mildly bearish in the near term, as strong production paired with weaker blending suggests a gradually loosening balance unless demand improves.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has declared that three clauses of the US-Iran ceasefire proposal have already been violated. He posted on X that a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is “unreasonable” and that the foundational basis for negotiations had been openly violated even before talks began. This comes alongside a separate report confirming that US-Iran peace talks are set to take place in Pakistan.
Chris Phelan, a Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis adviser and University of Minnesota professor with a University of Chicago Ph.D., is reportedly the leading candidate to become Trump’s chief economist and chair the Council of Economic Advisers. He would replace Stephen Miran, who stepped down in February. The potential nomination comes amid falling approval ratings for Trump on economic issues, driven by rising gas prices and cost-of-living concerns. The White House dismissed the report as speculation, and Phelan did not comment.
Hogs
Bought 450 June 94/103/108/117 Iron Condor paid 3.225 up to 3.25
Bought 250 June 88 puts paid .20
Sold 200 June 105 straddle @ 6.05
Bought 250 May 98 calls paid 1.5 up to 1.525
Bought 600 June 108 calls paid 2.025 up to 2.15
Bought 100 Dec 80/92 strangle paid 5.65
Bought 300 June 112 calls paid .90
Sold 350 July 100 puts @ 1.15
Sold 200 Feb 88 puts @ 5.9750
Live Cattle
Bought 100 Oct 246 calls paid 5.7250
Sold 250 June 236 puts @ 2.7750 covered 245.55
Bought 200 June 230 puts paid 1.65 up to 1.70
Sold 175 June 238 puts @ 3.125 down to 3.10
Sold 150 Oct 234/230 put spread @ 1.35
Sold 150 Aug 250/260 call spread @ 2.85
Sold 700 June 260 calls @ 1.30 down to 1.275
Bought 250 Oct 238/228 put spreads paid 3.55
Bought 200 Aug 240 puts paid 7.00 up to 7.25
Bought 400 June 240 puts paid 3.625 up to 3.775
Sold 100 June 236/246 call spread @ 6.650
Sold 500 June 260 calls @ 1.30 down to 1.25
Bought 125 June 250/260 call spread 1x2 paid 1.60
Sold 200 June 248 puts @ 6.85 down to 6.80
Sold 200 Oct 246 calls @ 5.775
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 Aug 370 calls @ 14.50
Bought 100 May 304 puts paid .35
Sold 200 nov 352/296 put spreads and 200 nov 347/420 call spreads collecting 21.90
Sold 100 April 360/314 put spread @ 2.10 down to 2.05
Sold 125 May 360 puts @ 5.50 down to 5.45
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