Bond traders are positioning for the Fed to raise rates sooner and faster after last week’s strong jobs report, with SOFR futures now pricing roughly one full 25-basis-point hike by year-end and some traders targeting a move as early as September. The next inflation report is the key risk: a hot print could add fuel to the hawkish trade and pressure risk assets, while a softer number could slow the recent shift in rate expectations.
Brazil is pushing back after the EU moved to remove Brazil from its list of approved exporters of animal-origin products, including meat, fish, honey and casings, effective September 3. The EU’s issue centers on whether Brazil has provided enough guarantees that certain antimicrobial drugs are not being used in animal production. Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said Brazil will work to reverse the decision and restore approval for poultry, pork and beef exports, with negotiations already involving senior officials in Brasília and EU trade representatives. The market concern is that the EU restriction could pressure Brazilian meatpackers and potentially open the door for the UK to consider similar import limits, adding another trade headwind for Brazil’s livestock and protein export sector.
China still matters to U.S. agriculture, but the market impact is not as broad or automatic as it once was. The Reuters piece argues that China has shifted much of its soybean demand toward South America, leaving U.S. soybean exports to China projected at a 19-year low for 2025/26, even though China remains the dominant global soybean importer. Corn is the opposite story: U.S. corn exports have reached record levels with little help from China, supported instead by broader demand, especially from Mexico and other buyers. Beef sits in the middle, where renewed Chinese demand could help exports, but tight U.S. cattle supplies and record beef prices make that more complicated. The takeaway is that China-related headlines can still move markets, but traders need to look commodity by commodity rather than assume Chinese buying is bullish across the entire ag complex.
Smucker’s outlook is turning more constructive as the company leans on its core growth brands, including Uncrustables, Café Bustelo, Milk-Bone and Meow Mix. Management is investing behind brand support and distribution, while cost savings and productivity efforts are helping protect margins. The key improvement is that green coffee costs appear to be moderating, tariff pressure is reversing, and Hostess profitability is starting to recover. Combined with more than $1 billion in targeted annual free cash flow and leverage moving toward 3x, Smucker looks positioned for stronger earnings growth into fiscal 2027 as the mix shifts toward higher-margin brands.
May existing home sales were stronger than expected, rising 3.2% month over month to a 4.17 million annualized pace, above estimates near 4.05–4.07 million and the highest level in five months. Prices remain firm, with the median existing home price up 1.3% year over year to $429,300, while supply was unchanged at 4.5 months. Overall, the report points to better housing demand despite elevated rates, but still-tight inventory continues to support prices.
The April trade data showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowing modestly, helped by a strong pickup in energy exports. The goods and services deficit fell 1.2% from March to $55.9 billion, slightly better than expectations. Exports rose 2.6%, led by a sharp increase in crude oil shipments along with gains in fuel oil and other petroleum products. That strength helped offset continued import growth tied to the U.S. data-center buildout, with imports up 2% and led by computers and semiconductors. The report suggests U.S. energy producers are benefiting from higher global oil demand and disrupted supply flows, while AI-related capital spending continues to keep import demand elevated. Trade balances also shifted by country, narrowing with Mexico, Canada and China, while widening with Vietnam.
Corn
B 300 z 440/410 ps 12 ¼ to 12 3/8
S 500 n 435 c 4 1/2
B 100 v 490/530 cs 5 1/2
S 1200 z 425 straddles 52 to 50 1/8
B 100 h 470/530 cs vs s 420 p 4 3/4
S 2800 u 470/460 ps 8
S 300 u 455p/485c strangles 42 ¾ vs 429 3/4
S 150 q 430 straddles 33 1/8
B 2000 u 480/500 cs 2 1/4
B 100 q 360 p 5/8
B 500 x 490/500 cs 1 7/8
S 500 n 420 c 9 1/2
B 1000 z 490 c vs s z 400 p 7 to 8 db
B 100 v 500 c 9 1/4
B 500 h 470/520 cs vs s 420 p 4 to 4 1/8 db
B 5000 dec 490/535 cs 6 3/4
B 200 u 430 straddles 40 1/2
B 1000 u 460/500 cs 6 ¼ vs 431
B 1000 q 450 c vs s u 500 c 5 ½ db vs 431
B 1000 n 435 c vs s 1000 n 455 c and 2000 n 465 c 1 ½ db
B 2000 z 500 c 11 5/8 to 12 1/8
On a block
B 5000 z 490/530 cs 6 3/8
Beans
B 300 q 1180 c 8 3/4
B 800 u 1160/1220 cs 11 to 11 3/8
B 1000 w2 1110 p 5 7/8 to 6 1/2
S 1500 n27 1280 c vs 1168 against b 1500 x 1240 c vs 1132 ½ collecting 14
B 200 x 1240/1250 cs 1 ½
B 1000 x 1600 c 1 1/4
B 1000 x 1250/1300 cs 5 3/8
S 500 n 1120 c 11 1/8 to 11
On a block
B 300 u 1060 p vs s u 1180 c 3 cr vs 1182 1/4
B 300 u 1060 p vs 1182 1/4
B 100 x27 1120 straddles 128
Soymeal
B 100 n 305 c 4.20
B 100 v 320/310 ps 7.05
B 1000 q 305 c 7.15 vs 303.0
S 1500 q 300 p 6.45 to 6.30 vs 303
S 500 n 300 p 3.75 to 3.10
B 400 n 295 p 1.45 vs 304.3
B 500 z 340/345 cs .75
S 800 q 300p/320c strangles 8.80 to 8.75 vs 304.0
S 200 q 310/305 ps 3.05
On a block
S 400 u 295p/315c strangles 12.25 vs 306.5
Bean oil
B 100 n 75/73 ps .680
S 500 n 73 p .670 to .635
S 900 u 660/620 ps 29 5/8
B 1000 q 650 c vs 600 against s n 580 p vs 589 paying 1/8
B 100 z 520 p 5 5/8
B 200 n 70 p .300
Wheat
S 900 u 660/620 ps 29 5/8
B 1000 q 650 c vs 600 against s n 580 p vs 589 paying 1/8
B 100 z 520 p 5 5/8
B 250 n 620/660 cs 4
B 100 n 560 p 2 3/8
On a block
B 300 u 605 c 29 ½ vs 604
Kc wheat
B 100 k 800/1000 cs 18
B 100 z 700 c 32
Hogs
Sold 100 Aug 97/92 combo @ 1.15 down to 1.125 selling call
Sold 200 June 90/93/95/100 Iron Condor @ .15
Sold 100 Oct 80 puts @ 4.0 covered 82.00
Bought 800 June 94 puts paid .35 up to .375
Bought 150 84/76 put spreads v. 90 .325 up to .35
Sold 700 July 101 calls @ 1.2250 down to 1.20 covered 97.825
Sold 250 Aug 102 calls @ 1.725 down to 1.70
Bought 300 April 100 calls paid 1.00 up to 1.025
Bought 300 dec 80 calls 3.075
Bought 150 april 84/76 put spreads vs selling the 90 calls paying .400
Bought 400 aug 96 calls vs selling 1200 aug 110 calls paying 2.200
On a block
Bought 750 oct 90 calls vs selling 3000 oct 100 calls collecting .250 to .220
Live Cattle
Sold 100 July 230 puts @ 1.55 down to 1.50
Bought 100 July 239/244 call spread paid 1.65
Bought 100 Aug/Oct 238/232 put spread paid 3.20
Bought 150 Oct 238/232 put spread paid 3.625
Sold 200 July 238/243 call spread @ 1.475
Bought 150 Aug 245 calls paid 2.975 covered 236.650
Sold 1000 oct 240 puts 12.750 to 12.500
Sold 1000 dec 240 puts 14.800 to 14.450
Feeder Cattle
Sold 100 Nov 380 calls @ 3.925 down to 3.875
Sold 100 Aug 350/360 call spread @ 4.50
Sold 100 Oct 380 calls @ 3.875
sources: vols bloomberg
