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Livestock positioning is most supportive in live cattle, where managed money expanded its net long to 124,349 contracts and open interest rose, showing fresh buying interest behind the rally. Feeder cattle are also friendly, with specs modestly adding length, but the signal is less aggressive and more tied to feed costs and live cattle direction. Lean hogs remain the weak spot, with managed money still net short and adding bearish exposure while open interest declined, suggesting weaker participation and less confidence in hog rallies. Overall, cattle still have bullish fund sponsorship, while hogs remain more defensive unless cash pork demand improves.
USDA crop progress leaned mostly neutral-to-bearish for corn and soybeans because both crops remain in solid shape and development is on schedule to slightly ahead. Corn was 97% emerged, right on last year and average, with 68% good/excellent and 5% silking, slightly ahead of normal. Soybeans were also strong, with 93% emerged, ahead of last year and average, 66% good/excellent, and 9% blooming, also ahead of normal. Winter wheat remains the weak spot fundamentally, with only 26% good/excellent, but harvest is moving fast at 40% complete, well ahead of last year and the 5-year average, which adds harvest pressure. Spring wheat is in better shape at 54% good/excellent and normal heading progress. Cotton is mostly on pace, with 92% planted, 27% squaring, and 53% good/excellent. Overall, the report does not add much weather risk to corn or beans and keeps the market focused on upcoming July weather.
Corn remains the stronger export story, with inspections of 57.3 million bushels down from last week but still leaving year-to-date inspections 25.2% ahead of last year, showing broad and steady demand. Soybeans were weaker, with inspections of only 8.9 million bushels, down sharply from the prior week, and year-to-date inspections still 19.3% behind last year. China showing up for soybeans is a positive headline, but the overall bean pace remains too light to call bullish. Bottom line: corn demand remains supportive on breaks, while soybeans still need a much stronger and more consistent export program to change the tone.
EU and China are set for another round of trade talks next week, with EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic meeting Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Brussels on June 29. The meeting comes as Europe grows more frustrated with its large goods trade deficit with China, reported around 360 billion euros, and the surge of Chinese exports into the bloc. EU leaders are pushing a two-track strategy: keep dialogue open with Beijing while also developing stronger trade tools to defend member states against unfair practices and trade imbalances. The tone points to rising EU-China trade tension, but for now Brussels is still trying to manage the dispute through talks before moving more aggressively.
Corn
B 500 u 460 c 4 7/8 vs 420 1/4
B 1000 n 415 p 4 5/8 to 4 ¾ vs 414
B 1000 n 420 c 1 1/2
S 800 sd q 450 c 10 3/8 to 10 1/4
B 2000 u 450/470 cs 3 ½ to 3 5/8
S 1000 n 415 c 4 1/2
B 250 z 460/500 cs vs s 420/400 ps 2 3/8 db
S 600 sd q 450 c 12
B 100 u 540 c 1 1/4
S 100 n 435/425 ps 9 1/8
B 400 u 510 c 2
B 200 z 410 p 10 1/2
S 300 z 475 c 13 ¼ vs 439 1/2
S 1500 z 400 p 7 1/8
B 500 sd u 445 p vs s u 430 p 1 5/8 cr
B 500 q 430 straddles 29 ¾ vs 421
B 100 u 425 straddles 35 1/4
B 100 sd u 515 c 3 1/8
B 500 u 580 c 3/4
S 2000 u 420 p 17
B 3000 sd u 470/450 ps vs s u 450/430 ps paying even
B 250 h 500/600 cs vs s 420 p 1/8 cr
B 200 z 450 c 21 vs 441 1/2
S 200 q 400p/450c 10 1/4
On a block
B 500 u 390 p 4 7/8 vs 421 ¾
Beans
S 1000 x 1280 c 11 ¼ to 10 3/8
S 500 x 1200 c vs b 1000 x 1300 c 7 3/8 vs vs 1143 3/4
S 250 qx even cso p 5
S 250 q 1240 c and 1260 c 22 to 21 7/8 cr vs 1143
B 100 n27 1100/1080 ps 6 3/8
B 500 n 1100 p 1 to 1 1/8
B 2000 u 1300 c 2 3/8 to 2 1/2
S 500 n 1120/1140 cs 7 ¾ down to 6 3/4
B 500 sd n 1140 c 10
S 300 x 1300 c 9 1/2
S 750 q 1130 p 25
S 750 x 1280 c 11 ¾ vs 1145 1/2
B 500 n 1110 p 3 ½
S 750 q 1130 c 20 5/8
B 600 q 1110 p 14 1/2
B 2000 q 1220 c vs 1128 ½ against s 1000 x 1200 c vs 1144 ¼ collecting 20 7/8 to 20 1/2
B 1000 x 1220/1320 cs 14 to 14 1/8
Soymeal
B 100 z 400 c 1.20
B 100 h 320/360 cs 4.95
B 650 n 305/310 cs .70
B 1000 u 310/350 cs 4.85
S 200 v 335 c 3.15
S 200 v 340 c 2.65
S 400 q 305/300 ps 2.90
B 1000 u 310/360 cs 5.00
B 1100 v 300 c vs s v 280 p 8.00 db
Bean oil
B 100 v 70 c 2.200
S 1000 u 76 c .660 to .655
B 2000 v 72/78 cs .980 vs 6710
S 500 n 70 c 1.150
B 200 u 75 c vs s 400 u 80 c .160 db
S 400 n 70 p .445
B 300 z 75/80 cs .720
B 400 h 65 p 4.140 vs 6635
S 250 n 70/68 ps .270
B 800 q 70 c 1.750 to 1.845
B 500 z 70/75 cs vs s 60 p paying even
B 600 n 69 p .220
On a block
S 800 z 65 p 3.150 vs 6670
Wheat
S 200 n 620 c 2 ½ vs 601
S 300 n 620 c 2 3/8 to 2 1/8
B 200 q 630 c 14
S 500 n 600 p 9 to 8 1/2
S 400 u 590p/625c strangles 38 to 37 ½ vs 610
S 1000 z 660p/730c strangles 74 5/8 to 73 7/8 vs 626 3/4
Kc wheat
S 200 q and u 650 c 43 ¾ cr vs 643
S 150 n 660/650 ps 8
Hogs
Bought 100 Aug 104/96 put spread paid 5.45
Sold 200 July 100/102 call spreads 1x2 @ Even.
Sold 150 Aug 106 calls @ .50 down to .4250
Live Cattle
Bought 500 Aug 229 puts paid .550
Sold 500 Aug 230 puts @ .625 down to .60
Bought 200 Aug 244/240 put spread paid 1.05 up to 1.075
Sold 100 Aug 240/220 put spread v. 260 calls @ 3.275
Sold 750 Dec 250 calls @ 5.325 down to 4.65
Sold 250 Oct 248 calls @ 4.25 down to 4.00
Bought 500 Oct 244 calls paid 5.625 up to 5.875
Sold 100 July 250 calls 1.05 covered 247.00
Bought 200 July 247/241 put spread paid 1.525 up to 1.55
Bought 700 Dec 232 puts paid 5.80 up to 6.05
Sold 100 Feb 250 calls @ 5.85
Bought 300 Oct 230 puts paid 3.65 up to 3.75
Sold 200 Dec 238/232 puts spreads @ 2.225
Sold 200 July 246/248 call spread @ .975
Feeder Cattle
Bought 400 Aug 350 puts paid 2.40 up to 2.50
Bought 100 Aug 352 puts paid 2.875 up to 2.90
Bought 100 Oct 440 calls paid .4250
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