The Senate Agriculture Committee released Chairman Boozman’s long-awaited farm bill draft, moving the process into the next major stage after the House passed its version in April. The bill covers crop subsidies, nutrition assistance, rural development and conservation, and Trump is pushing Congress to get it passed as a priority for farm-state support. The market takeaway is mostly constructive for agriculture, because it shows Washington is trying to advance a new farm safety-net package after years of one-year extensions since the 2018 bill. But the path is still uncertain: Democrats are objecting to SNAP cuts and cost shifts from the 2025 tax-and-spending law, and the bill still needs a Congressional Budget Office score. It also leaves out several hot-button issues, including pesticide-liability protections, year-round E15 approval, and state livestock confinement laws. Overall, this is supportive politically for farmers, but not yet a done deal.
The U.S. June S&P Global flash PMI data came in stronger than expected, with the Composite PMI rising to 52.2 from 51.5, showing the economy is still expanding. The strength was led by manufacturing at 55.7 vs. 54.6 expected, while services improved to 51.3, slightly above expectations and better than last month’s 50.7. Market takeaway: this is a stronger-growth print and leans hawkish for the Fed, because it reduces urgency for rate cuts. For ag commodities, it is mixed: better economic activity supports demand broadly, but higher-rate risk and a potentially firmer dollar can pressure export-sensitive markets like corn, soybeans, meal, and oil.
The dollar is becoming a bigger macro headwind for commodities. The Bloomberg note says the dollar hit its highest level since November as traders price in nearly two Fed rate hikes by early 2027, while Europe and Japan look less likely to match the U.S. on policy tightening. That rate gap is lifting the dollar, pressuring the euro and yen, and tightening global financial conditions. For ag markets, the takeaway is defensive: a stronger dollar makes U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, soymeal and soybean oil more expensive to foreign buyers, which can weigh on export demand and limit rallies. The key risk is that energy-driven inflation from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation keeps the Fed hawkish even if crude cools off, meaning the dollar strength may stay in place longer than the grain trade wants.
The Richmond Fed data was softer than the earlier S&P Global PMI print. The June Richmond Fed factory index fell to 4 from 13 in May, missing expectations of 8, while the shipments index dropped sharply to 3 from 16. Market takeaway: manufacturing activity is still technically positive, but the momentum slowed meaningfully in June. This takes some of the heat out of the stronger national PMI number and suggests regional factory demand is uneven. For ag markets, it is mildly defensive from a macro standpoint because it points to slower goods-sector momentum, but not weak enough by itself to change the Fed story unless more regional data softens too.
Corn
S 6000 u 430/425 ps 3 1/8
B 2000 u 425 p vs s u 525 c 18 5/8 db vs 419
B 300 h 545 c 6
S 300 sd u 450 c 12 5/8
B 2000 u 450 c 6 ¾ to 7
B 500 sd q 430 p 10 1/4
B 1500 z 500 c vs s z 400 p from 1 credit to ½ debit
B 3000 u 480 c 3 to 3 1/8
B 4000 u 425/440 cs 4 ¾ to 4 7/8
B 1000 n 415 p 6 ¾ vs 409 1/2
B 1000 n 402 p 1 1/4
B 1000 n 425 c 1/2
B 4000 u 500 c 2
S 1000 n 410 c 3 1/8
S 300 n 420/410 ps 7 1/2
B 1500 sd u 500 c 3 3/8 to 3 1/2
B 1000 z 600 c vs s 1000 sd q 500 c even to ¼ db
S 300 z 430 p 20
S 1000 sd n 435 c 3 ¾ to 3 5/8
B 750 z 520 c 5
B 200 z 470/490 cs 4 1/4
S 400 n 410 p 4 1/8
B 300 u 460 c 5 3/8
B 300 u 430 c 12 7/8
B 500 n 410 c 4 1/2
B 500 u 410/390 ps vs s n 410 p 11 1/8
S 1000 n 412 c 3 3/8
S 3175 sd u 440 p vs b sd q 430 p 8 ¾ to 8 5/8 cr
B 2000 q 425/440 cs 4 ½ to 4 5/8
B 1000 q 435/455 cs 4 1/4
On a block
B 2400 u 380 p 3 vs 417 1/2
Beans
B 500 n27 1200 c 53 ½ vs 1181
B 100 x 1400/1600 cs 2 1/2
S 1000 sd q 1200 c 6 1/8 to 6
B 500 n 1110 p 3 ¼ to 3 3/8
B 100 q 1130/1180 cs 12 3/4
B 100 xn -35/-20 cs vs s -50 p 1 db
B 100 sd u 1350/1400 cs 3/4
S 1000 sd q 1170 c 12 5/8
B 500 n27 1300 c 26 1/4
B 200 x 1140 p 41 ¼ vs 1141 1/2
Soymeal
B 100 u 310 c 6.55 vs 302.3
B 200 q 300 p vs s n 300 p 4.25 db
S 300 n 315 c .25
B 1000 v 300 c vs s 280 p 7.50 db
Bean oil
B 400 n 75 c .035
B 1000 z 75/80 cs .690
S 500 n 73 c .085 vs 7044
B 2000 z 75 c 1.500
B 1000 f 75/85 cs 1.120
S 300 n 70 p .450
B 250 f 65 p 3.720 vs 66.20
S 500 n 71 c .480
S 600 u 65 p 1.275 vs 6820
B 850 u 6750/65 ps 1.070
B 1000 z 87 c .420
S 300 q 70/7050 cs .185
B 100 z 70 c vs s z 62 p .740 db
B 200 q 71 c 1.200
B 300 z 69/74 cs vs s 60 p .020 to .050 db
Wheat
B 500 n 620 c 5/8
B 1000 u 650/750 cs 9
S 1000 u 550/500/450 put flies 3 5/8 to 3 1/2
S 400 n 600 c 4 ½ to 4 1/4
S 100 z 630p/680c strangles at 62 3/8
B 400 n 590 straddles 13 ¼
B 100 z 690/780 cs 15
S 400 z 580 p 14 ¾ to 14 1/4
B 300 w5 july 615/685 cs vs s 590 p collecting 4
B 400 q 620 c 10
On a block
S 200 v 600 p 20 1/8 vs 620
B 1500 u 550 p 5 3/8 vs 599 1/2
Kc wheat
S 375 z 725 c vs 654
S 300 n 630 c 6 1/8
Hogs
Sold 500 Feb 88 calls @ 1.60
Bought 150 Feb 78 puts paid 5.10 up to 5.20
Bought 100 July 95/98 call spread 1x2 paid .50
Sold 100 Aug 100 calls @ 1.65
Bought 150 Aug 94/86 put spread paid 1.225
Bought 1400 Aug 110 calls paid .250 up to .2750
Sold 500 Oct 82 straddle @ covered 81.825 bought 500 Aug 98 straddle covered 97.925 @ 2.80 down to 2.750
Bought 300 April 80/72 put spread v. 90 calls paid Even up to .10
Bought 400 Aug 98/104 call spreads paid 1.95 On a block.
Sold 200 Oct 94 calls @ .8750
Bought 150 Aug 111 calls paid .20
Sold 150 July 95/98 call spread @ .60 down to .575
Live Cattle
Sold 500 Dec 250 calls @ 4.75 down to 4.70
Bought 200 Oct 230 puts paid 3.625 up to 3.650
Bought 450 Aug 200 puts paid .0750
Bought 250 Aug 214 puts paid .1750
Sold 500 Oct 255/230 combo @ 1.45 covered 240.925 Selling the Put On a Block.
Bought 500 Aug 235 puts paid 1.40 up to 1.60
Sold 250 Aug 236 calls @ 12.425 down to 12.3250
Sold 250 July 246/248 call spread @ .85 down to .80
Feeder Cattle
Bought 100 Sept/Oct 350 put spread Cal paid 2.975 up to 3.00
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