The June NOPA report was strongly supportive for soybean oil and broadly supportive for the soybean complex. Soybean crush reached 214.34 million bushels, well above the 204.0 million estimate and even above the top of the expected range, showing processors ran at an exceptionally strong pace despite reported downtime. More importantly, soybean oil stocks fell to 1.501 billion pounds versus expectations near 1.653 billion and 1.735 billion last month, signaling that domestic and export demand absorbed the increased oil production. The combination of a record-large crush and sharply tighter-than-expected oil inventories is bullish soybean oil, while the heavy crush increases soybean demand but also creates more soybean meal supply, making the immediate impact on meal more mixed.
The Fed’s latest Beige Book paints a slow-growth, sticky-inflation picture. Most districts reported only slight to moderate economic growth, employment was largely unchanged, and several regions saw consumers pull back on discretionary spending as higher prices squeezed household budgets. Prices continued to rise moderately, giving the Fed little urgency to cut interest rates despite signs that demand and hiring are cooling. Overall, the report is mildly negative for economic growth and consumer-facing companies, but its continued inflation pressure is also unfriendly for bonds and keeps monetary policy cautious.
The latest DOE ethanol report was bearish for corn, with U.S. ethanol stocks rising 1.9% to 24.391 million barrels, above expectations, while production fell 4.8% to 1.040 million barrels per day, below the trade estimate. The inventory build was concentrated on the Gulf and West Coasts, while Midwest stocks declined slightly. Blender inputs improved modestly to 906,000 barrels per day, showing gasoline demand remained steady, but the combination of higher inventories and reduced plant output points to softer near-term ethanol margins and potentially weaker corn grind if the production slowdown continues.
Vietnam is becoming a more important growth market for U.S. ethanol and corn demand after implementing a nationwide E10 requirement for 95-octane gasoline on June 1 and cutting its ethanol import tariff from 10% to 5%. The United States supplied 58% of Vietnam’s ethanol imports in 2025, while the IEA estimates Vietnamese ethanol consumption could reach roughly 2.9 billion gallons in 2026. The policy should support additional U.S. ethanol exports and indirectly strengthen corn demand. Vietnam is also expanding purchases of U.S. DDGS, importing $272 million in 2025, and buyers have committed to purchasing 900,000 metric tons of U.S. corn and 250,000 metric tons of DDGS under agreements signed last year.
China’s economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, with GDP growth easing to 4.3% from a year earlier, one of its weakest performances outside the Covid period. Soft consumer spending, weak business confidence and continued property-sector pressure are weighing on domestic demand, leaving Beijing increasingly dependent on exports to support growth. The slowdown raises doubts that China will reach its 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5% and increases the likelihood of additional government stimulus. For commodity markets, the weak domestic backdrop is a demand concern, although aggressive export growth and potential policy support could help offset some of the downside.
General Mills, Big blue and Walmart are partnering to expand regenerative agriculture practices across 40,000 acres of Midwest wheat production. The initiative is designed to help farmers adopt practices such as improved soil management, crop rotation and reduced tillage, which can strengthen soil health, lower emissions and improve long-term crop resilience. The agreement is supportive for sustainable wheat sourcing and gives major food and retail companies a more traceable domestic supply chain, though 40,000 acres remains relatively small compared with total U.S. wheat acreage.
Conab raised Brazil’s 2025/26 grain production forecast to a record 360.1 million metric tons, up 2.2% from last season and 0.4% from its June estimate, mainly on larger soybean and corn crops. Soybean production is projected at a record 180.6 million tons, up 5.3% year over year, while total corn output is estimated at 141.7 million tons, including a 109.4-million-ton second crop. The increase is being driven mostly by expanded planted area rather than better yields, making the report bearish for global corn and soybean markets because it reinforces expectations for abundant Brazilian export supplies and stronger competition with U.S. grain.
Brazil’s agribusiness industry weakened in May after two months of growth, with overall activity down 2.8% from last year and 0.2% from April. Food and beverage production fell 3.5%, led by declines in plant-based foods, vegetable oils, rice, wheat and refined sugar, while animal-based food production dropped 1.5% on lower cattle, hog, poultry and fish slaughter. The non-food segment declined 1.8%, including weaker textiles, agricultural inputs and forest products, though biofuel output increased 9.6%. The May decline pushed Brazil’s January–May agribusiness output 0.1% below last year, raising questions about whether the sector’s recent resilience is beginning to fade.
June producer inflation came in notably softer than expected, with headline PPI falling 0.3% month over month versus forecasts for no change, while the annual rate slowed to 5.5% compared with expectations of 6.2%. Core prices excluding food and energy rose just 0.2% on the month and 4.7% from a year ago, both below estimates. The report is favorable for bonds and interest-rate-sensitive assets because it suggests inflation pressures at the wholesale level are easing, while potentially weighing on the dollar and supporting commodities through expectations for a less aggressive Federal Reserve.
Conagra’s update was broadly negative, with the company swinging to a quarterly loss, cutting its dividend in half and expecting organic sales to decline by low single digits in the first quarter. Management plans to raise prices, particularly in frozen foods, while conducting a detailed review of a portfolio the new CEO says has been too large for too long, including evaluating strategic options for non-core businesses. The dividend cut and roughly $550 million capital-spending plan suggest Conagra is prioritizing cash preservation and restructuring as it works to stabilize sales, margins and its brand portfolio.
Corn
B 1500 z 495 c vs 468 ½ against s 1500 q 450 p vs 446 ½ paying 5 5/8
B 4000 v 450 p 10 1/2
B 2000 z 500 c 13 to 14 1/8
B 2000 u 500 c 2 7/8 vs 448 1/2
B 500 w5 new crop 500 c 2
B 500 z 480/540 cs vs s z 410 p 9 1/2
B 2000 u 460 c 9 3/8 to 9 1/2
B 500 u 450 c vs s 1000 u 470 c 7/8 cr
S 400 z 470 straddle 49 ¾ to 49 3/8
S 6000 z 455 p 16 7/8 to 16 5/8 vs 469 1/2
S 2000 z 455 p 17 ¾ vs 466 1/2
B 2000 sd u 470 c 14 1/8 to 14 1/2
B 1000 u 445/465 cs vs s q 445/465 cs 1 ¾ db
B 2500 u 470/500 cs 4 5/8
S 300 u 460 p 22 5/8
B 1000 q 445/435 ps vs s 460 c ½ db vs 447
S 1000 sd q 460 c 12 ½ to 12 3/8
S 500 q 440 p 1/2
S 750 u 450 c 12 ¼ vs 444 1/4
B 1000 z 480/530 cs 11 3/4
B 500 z 440 p 11 3/4
B 1500 u 420/410 ps 2
B 1000 u 470/510 cs vs s 410 p 6 ¾ db
S 1000 z 410 p 4 ½ to 4 1/4
B 1500 u 600 c 3/8
B 500 z 490/540 cs vs s 430 p 1 ½ db
B 1000 q 465/475 cs 1 1/8
S 1000 u 460/550 cs 7 ¾ to 7 3/8
S 250 u 475 c 4 5/8
S 150 u 430/450 cs 9 1/2
Beans
B 200 xn -20/even cs vs s -40 p ½ cr
B 500 v 1220/1300 cs 16 1/2
S 100 n 1440 c 18
S 500 x 1300 c 12 7/8
B 250 h 1350 c 19 vs 1209 1/2
B 1600 w3 1190 c vs s 3200 w3 1200 c even
S 1000 x 1190 p 41 ½ to 40
S 1000 sd q 1160 c 40
S 1000 sd u 1160 c 47 3/4
B 2000 x 1300/1400 cs 8 1/2
S 100 f 1200/1170 ps 14 1/2
Soymeal
S 400 u 315 p 7.80
B 200 u 315/320 cs 1.90
B 200 z 360 c vs s z 300 p .10 cr
B 200 z 280 p 1.45
B 200 f 280 p 1.30
On a block
B 1500 q 320/330 cs 2.35
Bean oil
B 2000 u 67 p .660 vs 7115
B 300 v 72/80 cs 1.770
S 400 q 76 c .190 to .180 vs 7199
B 100 v 65 p .820
B 300 z 75 c 2.250
S 1000 q 78 c .070
B 600 u 80/90 cs .290 vs 7125
B 250 aug w1 73/79 cs vs s 68 p .495 db
Wheat
B 800 u 800/850/900 skinny flies 10 1/8
B 600 u 640/600 ps 10 3/8
B 600 u 560 p 1 3/8
B 800 z 840/880 cs 3 7/8 vs 685
B 1000 u 750 c 14 1/8 vs 678 ½
B 1000 h 860 c vs 697 against s 1000 z 700 c vs 686 collecting 23 1/2
B 2000 z 730 c vs 684 ½ against s 2000 u 740 c vs 671 ¼ paying 23 7/8
S 800 u 620 p 9 ¼ vs 671
S 500 u 700 c 23 ½
S 250 u 620p/700c strangles 32 ¾ to 32 5/8
B 3000 u 800/900 cs 3 5/8
B 500 z 680/750 cs 21 3/8
S 500 q 690 c 10
B 150 z 840 c 15
B 1000 z 800 c 20 to 21 1/4
S 800 u 660/700 cs vs b 605 p 7 3/8 to 7 1/8 cr
S 2000 u 650/700/750 call flies 8 1/8 vs 666 1/2
On a block
S 450 z 770 c 27 ¾ vs 686 1/4
Kc wheat
B 500 h 700/800 cs 37
S 500 q 690 c 23 3/4
B 1000 q 700 c 19 ½ to 21 1/2
S 6400 u 680/730/750/800 call condors 10 7/8 to 10 ¾ vs 700
S 1300 h 800/1200 cs 40 vs 744 3/4
B 1000 u 740 c vs s 2000 u 660 p 8 ¼ to 9 db
On a block
B 2000 z 800/850 cs 9 7/8
Hogs
Sold 300 Feb 82 calls @ 3.25 down to 3.15
Bought 100 Aug/Oct 100/86 call spread Diag. Paid 1.95
Bought 1000 Aug 100 straddle paid 3.35
Sold 1500 Oct 72 puts @ .3750 down to .3250
Bought 500 Aug 104 calls paid .45 up to .525
Sold 550 Aug 103 calls @ .525 down to .45
Sold 400 Aug 95 puts @ .35 down to .325
Bought 400 Oct 100 calls paid .425 up to .450
Sold 150 Aug 98/104 call spread 1x3 @ 1.475
Sold 500 Oct 100 calls @ .4750 down to .450
Live Cattle
Sold 150 Feb 230/240 call spread @ 4.225
Bought 400 Aug 230 puts paid 2.85 up to 3.15
Sold 500 Aug 230 calls @ 4.05 down to 4.00
Bought 250 Oct 231 calls paid 4.90 covered 227.025
Bought 200 Dec 236 calls paid 4.750
Bought 150 Dec 226 puts paid 9.00
Sold 400 Oct 219 puts @ 3.70
Bought 150 Oct 230/228 put spreads paid 1.10
Sold 200 Aug 234/230 put spread @ 2.375
Bought 250 Aug 232/229 put spread paid 1.60
Bought 300 Oct246 calls paid .95 up to .975
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