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CME Livestock Daily Options Report

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

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The FOMC meets today with CME FedWatch pricing a 31.5% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 68.5% chance rates remain unchanged. A surprise hike would likely strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and pressure stocks and commodities, while a hold could offer some relief depending on the Fed’s guidance. For corn and soybeans, the dollar reaction will be important because a stronger dollar can weaken U.S. export competitiveness, although weather and demand will remain the primary market drivers.

 

US-Iran tensions escalated as Iran’s IRGC launched ballistic missiles toward US forces in Jordan, though CENTCOM said all were intercepted, while US and Saudi forces struck Iran-backed militia sites in Iraq. Saudi Arabia also intercepted drones targeting petroleum facilities, and Iran claimed it seized three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the military escalation, President Trump said Iran is eager to reach a deal and expressed confidence the war can be ended, although Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned further strikes may be necessary if Iranian nuclear facilities are rebuilt. Reports that Iran could soon receive Chinese shoulder-launched missile systems add another layer of risk, keeping concerns elevated around regional security, oil infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

China’s Commerce Ministry said it strongly opposes the US decision to add Chinese research institutions to a sanctions list, arguing that the move unfairly targets legitimate scientific activity and undermines normal international research cooperation. Beijing urged Washington to provide fair and non-discriminatory treatment and said it will take necessary measures to protect the institutions’ rights and interests.

 

China’s Commerce Minister Wang said Beijing is willing to expand cooperation with the UK in services, green transition and renewable energy, but raised concerns over the nationalization of British Steel. He urged the UK to follow international rules and provide a fair and favorable business environment for Chinese companies operating in the country.

 

President Trump urged Senate Republicans to adopt a budget resolution before the August recess, calling it the first step toward including as much of the SAVE AMERICA Act as possible in a broader budget bill. He said the legislation would fund US troops and provide support for American farmers.

 

image-20260729055720-1

 

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 100 z 480 c 23 1/2

B 250 z 490/530 cs 10 5/8 

B 400 sd u 490 c 9 ½ vs 482 1/2

 

Beans

B 500 x 1280/1380 cs 12 1/2

S 1000 v 1210 p 33 ½ to 30

S 1000 v 1220 p 37

 

Bean oil

B 1500 z 65 p 1.610 to 1.710

 

Wheat

B 250 z 860 c 12 1/2

 

Open interest changes

Dec 440p/490c strangle sale and dec 520 call sale vs nov 520 call buy were new.  Oct 480 and sept 480 call sales were closing. 

 

Beans

Oct 1340 call buy was closing.

 

Soymeal

Sept 350 call buy was closing.

 

Bean oil

Sept 72/67 put spread sale was rolling a long.

 

Wheat

Sept 700 call sale was closing.

 

Cvol

Ags 22.96% down .94%

Corn 26.65% down 1.28%

Beans 20.36% down .73%

Soymeal 23.80% down .09%

Bean oil 25.24% down .31%

Wheat 36.04% down 3.78%

Feeder cattle 18.20% down .74%

Live cattle 18.42% down .61%

Lean hogs 20.97% down.17%

Class 3 milk 20.84% down 1.26%

 

Corn

image-20260729055720-2

Beans

image-20260729055720-3

Soymeal

image-20260729055720-4

Bean oil

image-20260729055720-5

Wheat

image-20260729055720-6

Kc wheat

image-20260729055720-7

Miax wheat

image-20260729055720-8

Oats

image-20260729055720-9

Cotton

image-20260729055720-10

Rough rice

image-20260729055720-11

Feeder cattle

image-20260729055720-12

Live cattle

image-20260729055720-13

Lean hogs

image-20260729055720-14

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