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Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Progress in exports puts pressure on coffee prices 
 
Fernando Maximiliano 
 
Carolina Jaramillo
Although the advance in exports has put pressure on prices, participants continue to focus on the weather in Brazil 
Highlights

•    Arabica coffee down 3.3% on the week to US¢ 236/lb
•    Robusta prices down 3.6% in London
•    Cepea indicator for Arabica coffee down 2.4%
•    For Robusta, the Cepea indicator fell by 1.2%
•    Robusta coffee prices remain higher than Arabica coffee prices
•    ICO: world exports up 9.6% in July
•    SECEX: exports up 5% in August to 3.45 million bags
•    Vietnam's exports fell 14% in August
•    Weather in Brazil remains the focus of market participants

 

Last week, coffee futures prices fell amid an increase in world coffee exports and the prospect of accelerated Brazilian coffee exports in the coming months. In addition, the weather in Brazil is still the focus of market participants. In New York, the most active Arabica coffee contract fell 3.3% on the week to US¢236.00/lb. At the London terminal, Robusta coffee prices fell 3.6% to USD 4770/t.

On the Brazilian domestic market, coffee prices followed the trend observed abroad and ended the week down. The Cepea indicator fell by 2.4% for Arabica coffee and 1.2% for Robusta coffee. In addition, Robusta coffee prices remained higher than Arabica prices last week, with the Cepea indicator for Robusta closing Friday at BRL 1465.60/bag, 3.7% higher than the indicator for Arabica, which closed at BRL 1413.70.
 

Weekly intraday (most active contract) - September 02 to 06

image-20240910105224-1
Source: CommodityNetwork Traders' Pro. Design: StoneX.

One of the factors contributing to the pressure on coffee prices was the rise in global coffee exports, especially in Brazil. According to the latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), world coffee exports totaled 10.03 million bags in July, representing an increase of 9.6% compared to July 2023. Accumulated exports for the season up to July exceeded 103 million bags, an increase of 10.6% compared to the same period last year.

The greater growth in exports was a reflection of the strong increase in Brazilian coffee exports, mainly due to Robusta coffee, which is currently the most competitive coffee in the world. For the month of August, data released by the Secretariat of Foreign Trade pointed to an increase of almost 5% in Brazilian coffee exports to 3.45 million bags. This week will see the release of official data from Cecafé, which should point to an increase in exports.
 

Seasonality of Brazilian coffee exports (million bags)

image-20240910105334-2

Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX.  

Brazilian exports have advanced amid falling coffee exports in Vietnam and Indonesia. Official data from the Indonesian government showed a 13.4% increase in exports from the island of Sumatra in July, due to the progress of the country's crop, but accumulated exports in the country's crop year until July fell by more than 32%. In Vietnam, data from the customs authority pointed to a drop of more than 14% in exports in August, which totaled just over 1.2 million bags.  

Just last week, a truckers' strike began in Colombia, following the rise in diesel prices after the government withdrew subsidies, which caused major logistical problems in the country. However, on Friday the situation was resolved following an agreement between the government and the truckers. This is a very important period for the country, as the main harvest is about to begin and should continue until January 2025. 

In the coming weeks, the focus will continue to be on the weather in Brazil. The month of August was marked by dry weather and extreme temperatures, while the month of September, which is usually marked by a transition to wetter conditions, continues with dry conditions and high temperatures. As presented in other editions of this report, Arabica coffee crops in particular are already being impacted. According to the latest models, rain is only expected to return at the end of the month or at the beginning of October. For more details, consult the Weekly Weather and Climate Report.

INDICATORS

image-20240910105602-3

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.
 
  • Coffee

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