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Coffee Weekly Report

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

Coffee Prices Reach Record Highs in Brazil 
 
Fernando Maximiliano 
The prospect of a reduction in Brazil's arabica crop and uncertainties surrounding the new EUDR legislation have supported rising coffee prices
Summary  

•    Arabica coffee rose by 11.9% in New York, priced at US¢ 283.30/lb
•    Robusta coffee prices increased by 9.1% to USD 4773/ton in London
•    The USDBRL appreciated by 1% over the week
•    In Brazil, arabica and robusta coffee prices rose by 10.2% and 6.6%, respectively
•    StoneX released its first estimate for the 2025/26 harvest
•    Arabica production is expected to decrease by 10.5%, while robusta could increase by 21%
•    Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop is forecasted to decline by 0.4% to 65.6 million bags
•    Cecafé: Exports increased by 11.6% to 4.9 million bags

 

Over the past week, several factors drove coffee prices higher in Brazil and internationally. The outlook for a drop in Brazil's arabica production for the 2025/26 season significantly influenced the upward movement. According to the crop survey report by StoneX, arabica production in the next season could decline by over 10% due to climatic impacts. Additionally, uncertainties related to the new EUDR legislation contributed to the movement. Despite the European Parliament voting last week to delay the law's implementation by 12 months, several key points remain undefined, requiring another vote in mid-December.  

In addition to these factors, technical elements, such as the approach of the first notice day scheduled for Wednesday (20), also contributed to price movements. In New York, the most active contract ended last week with gains of 3020 points (+11.9%) at US¢ 283.30/lb. In London, prices rose by 9.1% to USD 4773/ton. On Monday (18), prices showed a slight increase in New York and a 1% decline in London. Today’s session was described by traders as “hectic and undirected.”  

In the Brazilian market, prices also advanced, responding to the increase in international prices and the strengthening of the dollar, reaching record highs for both arabica and robusta coffee. The market was closed on Friday (15) due to Brazil's Republic Day holiday. By Thursday (14), the Cepea index for arabica had risen 10.2% to R$1,755.95/bag, while robusta had increased by 6.6% to R$1,588.70/bag.  

Weekly Intraday (Most Active Contract) – 11/11 to 11/15  

image 104066
Source: CommodityNetwork Traders’ Pro. Design: StoneX.

From a fundamentals perspective, the development of Brazil’s coffee crop and its production potential for 2025/26 remain central points for market participants. Last Wednesday (13), StoneX released the results of another crop survey, conducted shortly after the opening of flowering. Additionally, the report included the first estimate for the 2025/26 crop.  

After covering more than 20,000 kilometers and visiting major coffee-producing regions in Brazil, StoneX estimated next season's production at 65.6 million bags, representing a 0.4% decrease compared to the 2024/25 season. Despite the slight decline, significant changes in coffee types are expected, with robusta showing strong growth while arabica declines.  

Arabica coffee production is forecasted to drop by 10.5% to 40 million bags, reflecting the effects of extreme weather in recent months. On the other hand, favorable weather conditions and the use of irrigation systems are expected to drive a nearly 21% increase in robusta coffee production, reaching 25.6 million bags.  

It is important to note that these projections are preliminary, as Brazilian crops still need to go through critical development stages, such as fruit expansion and filling. In the coming months, StoneX will continue monitoring crop development in Brazil and will release an updated forecast in February, following the fruit-filling period.  

Last week, Cecafé released Brazil's coffee export data for October. According to the report, Brazilian coffee exports increased by 11.6% to 4.9 million bags. Of this total, industrialized coffee exports rose by 27% to 359,000 bags, while green coffee exports grew by 10.5% to 4.56 million bags.  

Brazilian Green Coffee Exports (Millions of Bags)  

image 104067

Source: Cecafé. Design: StoneX. 

Robusta exports surged nearly 27% to 871,000 bags, while arabica exports rose by 7.2% to nearly 3.7 million bags. Export revenues jumped 80.6% to over BRL 7.8 billion. According to an interview with Cecafé CEO Marcos Matos published by CoffeeNetwork, Brazilian coffee exports are expected to set a new record by the end of the year.  

TABLE OF INDICATORSimage 104068

Sources: ICE/NY; ICE/EU; B3; Commodity Network Trader’s Pro.

 

 

  • Coffee

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