This week, the focus of attention will be the release by Cecafé of coffee export data in Brazil in March. Since the beginning of the year, Brazilian coffee exports have shown results well below those observed last year, with exports falling more than 18% in January and 33% in February. At the time of writing this report, the official result for exports had not yet been released, but the preliminary data, reported by Secex, indicated a reduction of almost 20% in March exports.
For some in the market, the explanation behind the drop in exports is weakened demand from consuming countries. In fact, one of the problems is the very strong level of differentials, which discourages new business. However, the president of Cecafé, Marcio Ferreira, in a recent interview with CoffeeNetwork, argued that the drop in exports is a seasonal trend, given the reduced production in recent years after the record produced in 2020/21, whose carryover stocks were so big that they extended until 2022. In any case, this remains a warning point that should reverberate in the market.
In the new week, another important event will be the release of coffee stocks in US ports in March by the Green Coffee Association, which usually takes place on the 15th of every month, but due to the weekend, it will be released on Monday (17). Considering the seasonal trend, stocks may show a slight drop, with the average change between February and March over the last five years indicating a 1.5% drop. In the first two months of the year, stocks fell by 4.3%, but the volume seen in February is still 6% greater than that seen in the same month of last year.
In addition to the releases above, from a macro point of view, the market will keep an eye on the delivery of the complementary text for the new fiscal framework bill in Brazil to the National Congress, and the release of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for March on April 11. Abroad, the focus will be on the release of US inflation data (CPI) and economic data for the country.
